Two fronts of Mikhail Saakashvili

In Georgia, they are preparing for the municipal elections that are scheduled for October 21, and closely monitor the adventures of the former president of the country in Ukraine. The last successes of Mikhail Saakashvili there is an important resource of his party "Unified National Movement": the stronger and more influential the "Ukrainian party" of the ex-president will be, the louder and more weightily his associates in his homeland will show themselves.

The authorities in Tbilisi are afraid of Saakashvili even more than their Kyiv colleagues, but the main question is "What, in the end, is achieving this restless politician?" - It remains unanswered. Perhaps he does not know the answer yet.

Enlightened populist

All Georgia followed the live broadcast of the Rustavi-2 television company, the faithful ally of Saakashvili since the “Revolution of the Roses”, after what was happening on the Ukrainian-Polish border, where the former president still managed to break through the cordons of border guards, publicly “reporting” the general who tried to stop him if not to be stopped.

But it is impossible to "talk" Saakashvili. And throwing a glass into it (like Arsen Avakov) or trying to stop without the use of strength, the authorities only exacerbate its position and inspires the supporters of the “enlightened populist”, as Mikhail Saakashvili called the Georgian political scientist Georgy Nidia.

Previously, there were "enlightened tyrants" and in our century - "enlightened populists."

Antioligarchic roll call

Immediately after the breakthrough of Saakashvili across the Ukrainian border, the Opposition Party of the Ex-President of Georgia The Unified National Movement (END) resumed activities in the "revolutionary style", having arranged a noisy rally by the Cartu Bank and the founder of the ruling party "Georgian Dream" Bidzina Ivanishvili. And then she tried to disrupt the meeting of the Tbilisi City Assembly of Sakrebulo, on which the issue of transferring the land plot to the billionaire was resolved - for the needs of a luxurious hotel under construction on Square.

The Ukrainian politicalbiography of Saakashvili in the eyes of Georgians becomes a compensation for its 2008 defeat and the loss of parliamentary elections in 2012

“Antioligarchic slogans”, recited by the Saakashvili single -party members, are absolutely consonant with its slogans that sound in Odessa and Kyiv: “The oligarchic rule robs the country, gives rise to corruption,” “The rich rich in ordinary people”, “While you work, they are enriched,” “must be taken away from the oligarchy "Purreled" property "," plant corrupt officials "," red -hot iron to eradicate bureaucratic vices generated by "oligarchic rule", "conduct radical reforms" and so on.

However, despite such flirting with the popular intention to “take away and divide”, Mikhail Saakashvili and both of his parties (as in Ukraine and Georgia) remain quite pro -Western, right, market -oriented, but by “the expropriation of property of the oligarchs” does not mean its nationalization and returning to the state, but a new privatization, that is, the sale of honest and best ”to honest and best hands".

Apparently, it is this mixture of folk aspirations with creative PR technologies that implies the term "enlightened populism".

Mikhail Saakashvili crosses the border of Poland and Ukraine, September 10, 2017

Dangerous apatride

The Georgian authorities cannot but react to the relative, but the obvious successes of Saakashvili in Ukraine, perfectly realizing that the former president remains the main resource of their main and most dangerous opponent - the UND. It has so happened over the past quarter centuries: the Georgian voter votes in the plots, and the Georgian "passionarium" rages at rallies not for timid and failed, but for "successful" and "crazy". Saakashvili, Ukrainian politicalbiography in the eyes of Georgians becomes a compensation for his 2008 defeat and losing the parliamentary elections in 2012.

In many ways, therefore, the leaders of the Georgian Dream and their “inspirer”, billionaire Ivanishvili, have recently been increasingly appealing to the loss of the third president of the country of Georgian citizenship. But the last argument is absolutely useless: yes, Mikhail Saakashvili first lost the Georgian, and then Ukrainian passport, turning into Apatrides. But this does not mean anything on the political field where he plays both in Georgia and in Ukraine: Mishiko is not going to legalize his status in Georgia, for example, to achieve his return to his citizenship in order to take part in any elections. He repeatedly said: "To win the elections" Georgian Dream "and change the power through elections will not be possible." Of course, the reason he calls the evil will of the “Russian oligarch Ivanishvili”, and not the easily explained fear of the simple layman to again provoke the aggression of the neighboring nuclear power by the return to power in Georgia of its implacable enemy.

But one way or another, Saakashvili in both countries relies on a “passionate minority”, which is quite capable of winning, if not in the elections, then during the revolution, as was repeatedly happened in Tbilisi and Kyiv.

Without such a resource as "our Misha", the yend, and the opposition movement in general in Georgia today simply have no chance

The former President of Georgia is still making all the most important decisions in the UND. It seemed that this party was supposed to lose its resource after the elite of the National Movement (the Political Council in full force) came out of it, accusing its own chairman of voluntarism and unwillingness to reconcile with the role of the historical loser, whose time passed. Nevertheless, Saakashvili retained the party "backbone".

Without such a resource as “our Misha”, the UND, and the opposition movement in Georgia in Georgia today simply have no chance, since “intellectuals” who have left the party, and other faceless opposition leaders are not able to warm up the masses to the next revolution “against the Russian oligarch”.

The current Saakashvili did not add anything new to the old set of the “Rose Revolution” rose revolution, but if their leader remains in sight in Ukraine, his arguments will work again and in Georgia. The popularity of the UND among the "passionary-revolutionary minority" for all surveys is growing with every new noisy action. And Saakashvili never tried to conquer the hearts of the "cowardly producing majority.

Mikhail Saakashvili and Donald Trump in Batumi, 2012

Between Kyiv and Tbilisi

You can’t envy Prime Minister George Quirikashvili: he simply does not have good solutions. Saakashvili's extradition, against which four criminal cases have been instituted in his homeland, can become a political suicide for the “Georgian Dream”: VIP, which was conquered by the Tbilisi prison “on Matrosov” will become a lively and unconquered symbol of the upcoming “anti-oligarchic revolution”: the ambassadors of the Western countries will be visited, and the mentioned “passionate minority” will break out On Matrosov Street, a tent town, threatening with violent actions, if at least one hair falls from the head of a “fighter for truth”. Each court hearing will turn into a thousands of rally, threatening to result in street manifestations, the paralysis of the city center and a clash with the police. And no one is deceived by the argument that there are not so many supporters of Saakashvili: they are enough to block any prison.

It is not surprising that if the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Georgy Mgebrischvili, during a recent conversation with the Russian pranker (introduced by the Ukrainian Minister Arsen Avakov), asked the "colleague" not to extradite Saakashvili, while bringing a remarkable argument: "We do not want to make a hero ... because everything was calmed down here now, everything was stabilized while we live well ... It lives, and if he appears here, then the unrest will begin ... "

Of course, if the third president of the country is in prison, the Georgian authorities are “normal” and “calmly” can no longer be by definition. Moreover, the accusations against Saakashvili in the acquisition of branded costumes and Botox injections for the state account, the organization of the beating of businessman Valery Gelashvili, who rudely insulted his wife Sandra Rulovs in an interview, the rally of the rally in 2007 and the pardon of senior officials of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, convicted of the abduction of the young banker, are not perceived at all. Definitely those Georgian citizens who are clearly starting to get tired of the “Georgian Dream” and again require changes, even if you have to change the “dream” to the forever young idea of the struggle against the “oligarchs”.

The authorities also cannot demand the extradition of Saakashvili either. Especially after a cunning special operation of Russian prankers

Among other things, the Georgian government clearly does not like the prospect of turning into the second pole of the “Unified Anti -Russian Front”: Georgia did not join the EU and the United States against Russia, with the exception of a symbolic ban on importing Crimean products. And the rhetoric of the opposition about the "Russian oligarch Ivanishvili" is not perceived in the West: they know very well that Ivanishvili has long sold all his Russian assets.

However, on the other hand, the authorities cannot demand the extradition of Saakashvili either. Especially after the cunning special operation of Russian pranks: the conversation between Mgetrishvili with Avakov, who was around Georgian television channels, demonstrated the weakness of power, and the opposition reasonably spoke of the "fear of Saakashvili." In response, the Minister of Justice of the Thera Tsulukiani reported that the Prosecutor General of Georgia “repeatedly sent” the materials of all criminal cases to Kyiv, and this is “quite enough” so that the Ukrainian authorities make a decision.

The team of Petro Poroshenko is also at a loss: Saakashvili has already submitted documents to the migration service of Ukraine, demanding to provide him with political asylum. The procedure for resolving the issue will take many months, if not years, but before their completion it is impossible to extradite Saakashvili. But leaving him in Ukraine means risking the new "Maidan".

Clashes in Kyiv on October 17

Maybe lucky

In such conditions, the question of Saakashvili’s intentions, often asked in Georgia and Ukraine, seems meaningless: “Enlightenmented populism” does not provide for a conscious plan and a specific agenda. At this stage, Saakashvili achieves the main thing: to remain in the spotlight - on the political and media broadcast, to maintain influence in “support groups” as in Kyiv and Tbilisi, and where exactly these resources will lead to “breakthrough” - in Ukraine or Georgia, is not so important.

Mishiko perceives himself as a figure of a post -Soviet scale. I like it or not, it is essentially right: to one degree or another, its factor really affects the political alignment in Ukraine, which means that it is also sensitive to Russia. And Georgia is an important argument for him, the story of the success of liberal reforms, the fight against corruption and the construction of state institutions.

Saakashvili acts on a hunch, rely on his grip, hoping at random and the saying popular in Georgia "where it is thin, and there is torn."

If he is “tearing” in Georgia-his party is already ready for the triumphal meeting of the leader at the Tbilisi Airport or the Sea Port, where it runs with steam from Odessa, and if nevertheless in Ukraine, then Mishiko, of course, will not mind using the resources of this vast country, so that, according to him, “become a playing coach for Ukrainian reform”, at the same time “answered” the neighboring power that has humiliated it in 2008.