Three scenarios for Sobchak

What will be the presidential campaign of the TV presenter, how much will it cost and what the result can be

Photo: YouTube.com

Having joined the presidential race, Ksenia Sobchak will choose from three main election strategies - achieving the highest result (percentage of votes), the struggle against other candidates (“spoiler”) and elections as a television show (without focusing on a specific result), follows from comments of NT of politicians, political scientists and sociologists. Depending on the script chosen by the Sobchak team, experts evaluate the chances of whether Sobchak will surpass the result obtained in 2012 Mikhail Prokhorov and the total value of its election campaign.

Elections in an adult way

If Sobchak during his election campaign will observe the position “against all” she declared, then this will not bring her any result, the opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov, former colleague Sobchak on the coordination council of the opposition during the protests on Bolotnaya, believes. In his opinion, in this scenario, the presidential election will be the last arrival of a socialite in politics, and its result when choosing such a campaign strategy will not exceed statistical error.

But Gudkov does not believe in such a strategy: in his opinion, Sobchak has “serious ambitions”, and he will be interested in monitoring her election campaign. As the politician noted, she actively participated in the protests of 2011-2012 and still continues to work at the rain, although she could have gone to engage in entertainment shows on federal channels.

In order to gain votes, Sobchak must conduct a “serious election campaign with hype elements,” Gudkov believes. At the same time, in his opinion, not only stylistics, but also the content of the campaign is important for the result. “There are questions that everyone put in their places:“ Is a thief Putin? ”,“ Whose Crimea? ” and so on. I think Sobchak understands this, ”he says.

“The nature and ambitions of Ksenia suggest the first option - an active election campaign with the expectation of the maximum percentage,” the head of the Political Expert Group, political scientist Konstantin Kalachev, agrees. But the elements of the show aimed at the entertainment of the public and the maximum hype on TV and on the Internet, and not on the actual election targets, at the same time cannot be avoided, the expert believes.

Judging by the fact that she took the political strategist Vitaly Shklyarov from the headquarters of Dima Gudkov and Bernie Sanders, it seems that the campaign will be quite effective, says political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin. “From this campaign, it will squeeze out the maximum for herself. If she was allowed in the Kremlin, it would be stupid to perform weakly, the expert believes. - On the contrary, she wants to show that she is a serious player, so that she was then forced to reckon with her. Either she is scared, or to repulse from her, or incorporate her, but in any case it will cost it very expensive, because she will make a maximum to raise her personal image, but she can do it very well. She always tries to extract the maximum from any situation, and in the sense of political PR, and in the sense of money too. ”

For the result, not only stylistics is important, but also the content of the campaign. “There are questions that everyone put in their places:“ Is a thief Putin? ”,“ Whose Crimea? ”

Spoileism and show

The Kremlin is interested in the Sobchak to turn its election campaign into a show, the political scientist Valery Nightingale states. In his opinion, the TV presenter will revive citizens' interest in the elections. “Sobchak is a showierl, she successfully manages to create a show and scandals around her. And the Kremlin is also interested in this. On the other hand, if Sobchak crosses the line, then they can make it clear to her on top that she needs to reduce the pace so that the elections do not acquire a farce hue, ”the political scientist argues.

“Sobchak will not extend against Putin hard, this is according to the rules of the game. She will wet all the others quite hard, ”said Oreshkin. -She has already shown her technological development-they are all from the last century, they are all from the 1990s, and the country needs young, unwilling, successful, and all these: Yavlinsky, Zhirinovsky, Zyuganov, that's all-grandfathers. Putin is not among the grandfathers for obvious reasons, he is above this. ”

In accordance with Sobchak voiced by voters, to vote for their candidacy instead of the column “against all”, which disappeared from the ballots, its election campaign will be aimed at both criticism of opponents and have an entertaining nature, the director of the Levada Center Lev Gudkov suggested. “The spoiler campaign and the show are those scenarios that do not contradict each other, but on the contrary, complement each other,” he said, noting, “that this will be the line of behavior most characteristic of Sobchak.”

“Such a line of behavior will also be aimed at performing the functions that the Kremlin designated it: to shade Putin President President President. Against the backdrop of Sobchak, Putin will really look like the father of the nation. At the moment, Sobchak does not have a specific program, she did not indicate her political position. The position “Against all” is pure demagogy, not even populism, ”the sociologist is sure.

First forecasts: from 0.5% to 10%

In the case of the initially declared scenario “vote against all”, according to the director of the Levada Center, Sobchak may gain from 0.5% to 3% of votes. “The low-style, not very educated youth, the conditional audience“ Home-2 ”can vote for it,” the sociologist suggested. Those who really would like to vote against everyone can also join them - this is traditionally about 1.5% of the vote, the sociologist added.

“If she competently leads her campaign, increase the hype around her, then she will be able to achieve the result of Prokhorov - 7.9% - or even surpass him,” the nightingale suggested.

Oreshkin’s forecast is even more optimistic: “Until the campaign has started, its starting position is 10% ± 2%. She has a very high rating of recognition, people watch TV, one way or another, they saw Sobchak several times, that is, the first political technological requirement - “seven touches” - already. According to a survey conducted by the All -Russian Central Executive Committee (although this is not the most objective source), she has a 20%rating of sympathy, and this is already a lot. If she correctly promotes the campaign, she will receive even more. I believe that she is definitely entering the four. ”

“If she competently leads her campaign, increase the hype around her, then she will be able to achieve the result of Prokhorov - 7.9% - or even surpass him”

If at least half of them are 20%that evaluate it positively, they will come for it to vote - this will be a giant result, says VTsIOM general director Valery Fedorov. “It is clear that pensioners are unlikely to vote for her. She should work with those who do not vote or vote irregularly, with youth. Or is interested in politics, but does not believe in system politicians, ”the sociologist advises. - Ksenia causes strong emotions, this allows her to count on the fact that she can turn over those who are not enthusiastic about her today. She also needs to prove that she is a politician, not a showman. ”

The price of the campaign

The show in the style of the show will not require large financial costs, the Nightingale believes. In this case, Sobchak will lead his campaign mainly on social networks, which is not necessary to spend much, and in the campaign on television, which is traditionally the most expensive, it does not need, the interlocutor NT states.

The choice of an active campaign implies a strategy for strict counterposition in relation to all politicians and parties, says Kalachev. In value terms, this means that the total campaign will cost $ 10–20 million, the expert estimates.

Gudkov estimates the costs of holding a full -fledged election campaign for Sobchak at 1 billion rubles. And above: this money, in his opinion, should go to the mobilization of volunteers, the opening of regional headquarters, videos on social networks and representing television.

Oreshkin puts an even higher bar: “A good campaign costs about $ 5 per voice. Conventionally in the country 110 million voters. The turnout will be approximately 65%, that is, about 70 million people. Of these, Sobchak, in order to perform well, gain 10% of the vote, we need 7 million voters. This means that $ 35 million (that is, more than 2 billion rubles), according to minimal estimates, it needs to be obtained. ”