Translated material
Four in the place of the prime minister
Why on federal channels a discussion of the future head of government began and what scenarios are considered in the Kremlin
Alexey Kudrin. Photo: neva.tude
Before the inevitable resignation of the government, no more than six months remain. Theoretically, Putin can fire Dmitry Medvedev and his ministers at any time. In extreme cases, the resignation will occur by May 7, 2018 - on this day the inauguration of the newly elected president is undergoing, before which the government is composed by law.
However, the public discussion of the new prime minister has already started. And this, oddly enough, began the state “Channel One”.
"In society, quite reasonable rumors have spread that soon Alexei Leonidovich could be appointed Prime Minister of Russia"
Liberal reformer
The beginning of the conversation about the next head of the government was laid in the Humoristic show "Plant -Pecherischilton" on October 28. You can take conversations in such a program, however, the most popular in the country (Ivan Urgant, Garik Martirosyan, Sergey Svetlakov and Alexander Tsekalo) for 15 minutes so unequivocally and without any relevant reason presented the country of a possible new prime minister that there was no doubt in someone’s desire to throw the topic into the public space.
It is even more interesting who exactly they were married to the premieres on the state channel. It was ex-Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin. “In society, quite justified rumors have spread that soon Alexei Leonidovich could be appointed Prime Minister of Russia,” Martirosyan began the topic. From that moment on, the presenters continuously praised Kudrin, who appeared in the studio. “Glory to God would be,” reacted to the possible appointment of Kudrin by Prime Minister Tsekalo. The presenters called him “wise” (they fulfilled the song “Testament three desires will fulfill the Wise Kudrin”, remaking the words from the famous cartoon), then, asking one of the questions, they noted that Kudrin is “one of the smartest people in our country.” At the end of the program, Urgant made it clear that he considers the guest “without five minutes” the prime minister.
Kudrin himself only modestly refused to comment on information about the possible appointment.
In principle, the return of Kudrin to power would be logical. According to the interlocutors close to the president, the ex-minister remains among the people whom Vladimir Putin trusts the most. Despite the departure from the government, Putin often meets him, publicly praises him and consults on important issues. During the Direct Line in 2013, Putin talked about informal meetings with the former prime minister and did not miss the case of saying flattering words to him. “Alexei Leonidovich and I have known each other for a long time and polemize with him constantly, but since he was the Minister of Finance in two governments, you understand that I have always been greatly respected by his opinion. I have already said that he was recognized twice as an international expert community as the best minister of finance in the world, I really confirm this. I am sure that it was so, ”Putin emphasized.
Putin many times offered Kudrin to return to power. In 2013, according to media reports, he received an offer to become the first deputy head of the Kremlin administration
It is generally accepted that Kudrin participated in the resolving the issue of a sharp raising of the key rate (up to 17%) during the 2014 currency crisis, says the interlocutor close to the leadership of the Kremlin administration. At least Putin spoke to him at the moment when the ruble depreciated before his eyes, the interlocutor said.
Putin many times offered Kudrin to return to power. In 2013, according to the media, Kudrin received an offer to become the first deputy head of the Kremlin administration. Putin himself publicly confirmed that he proposed to the former deputy prime minister and the Minister of Finance to return to power structures, but he refused.
Last year, the president said that Kudrin's position began to change. As a result, he appointed him the deputy chairman of his economic council and instructed to write one of the options for the Russian economic development strategy for the period of the next presidential term (2018–2024).
But Putin will be able to appoint Kudrin in only one case: if he decides to carry out serious liberal reforms, including unpopular measures such as raising the retirement age and refusing a strategy for raising salary at a faster pace than labor productivity. Kudrin himself said during the “direct line” that the “half -meter and half -reforms will not work today” and that he is ready to engage in structural and institutional reforms, and not manual control.
However, the theory of the appointment of a former minister has another minus prime minister. Kudrin left the government after a public conflict with then President Dmitry Medvedev, respectively, the need to give him his current post Medvedev, the leader of United Russia, will perceive as humiliation. It is unlikely that Putin will agree to this, the interlocutor, close to the Kremlin, argues. In his opinion, a public discussion of the name of the ex-vice-prime minister is still more like preparing public opinion for Kudrin’s real purpose, but at the desire of the authorities to begin to discuss the topic of the future prime minister.
Center-reformer
The most discussed in the elite candidate for the premiere, the mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin remains, is claimed by NT interlocutors, close to the Kremlin. These conversations are so active that Sobyanin himself, to reduce the degree, considered it necessary to defiantly show that he had nothing to do with them. At least, it is difficult to differently explain his unexpected statement in an interview with Vedomosti on October 25 that he “with a high degree of probability” will nominate his candidacy for the post of mayor of Moscow in 2018. Considering that before the mayor’s elections is still less than a year, Sobyanin was not formally obliged to report the desire to stay in the current post so early.
Photo: government.ru
However, if Putin says: “It is necessary to premieres,” then the mayor will quickly forget about his desire to stay at the current post, the interlocutor NT predicts. In 2010, such a situation was already. Sobyanin then held the post of Deputy Prime Minister and the head of the apparatus in the government of Putin and was satisfied with his position. According to media reports, then Sobyanin really did not want to change the work, but under Putin’s pressure he was forced to accept Dmitry Medvedev’s proposal to head the capital after Yuri Luzhkov.
Sobyanin enters Putin's immediate environment. In total, he led all his affairs for five years: from 2005 to 2008 - in the Kremlin, as the head of the presidential administration, and then two more years in the government. Sobyanin was one of the strongest chapters of the presidential administration, with him, finally, a document management was established, with which there were so big problems, the former Kremlin official recalls.
Like Kudrin, Putin will need Sobyanin if he decides to reform, the interlocutors of NT say. But unlike the ex-Minister of Finance, Sobyanin will not insist on political and institutional reforms, to which Putin has not yet demonstrated readiness. At the same time, the current Moscow mayor can take on the conduct of unpopular economic and social measures.
“Sobyanin has a quality that he demonstrated in Moscow when deciding on paid parking and demolition of Khrushchevs. If he sets himself a goal, then he rushes like a tank, he doesn’t care what they think about him, ”says a source in the presidential administration. Such a person can be very useful as the prime minister if Putin wants to spend part of his last term on reform, then write off all problems on the head of government and dismiss, appointing his successor to his place for a year or two until the end of the term of office, the interlocutor of the magazine adds.
And again Medvedev
In Russia, Vladimir Putin has one person who will definitely be fine - this is Dmitry Medvedev, says a former Kremlin official who is still entering high rooms. “A person who gave Putin power will certainly not be offended by the position,” he adds.
According to several NT interlocutors in the Government and the Kremlin, contrary to all the conversations about the resignation, Medvedev has a chance to stay at the head of the government after May 2018. “If Medvedev wants, then he will remain the prime minister,” the person predicts, surrounded by Putin.
From above, the team entered Ulyukaev under house arrest and make the process open. Medvedev decided to intervene, who talked with the president and achieved the command from him to the security forces "to reverse"
The main argument that the interlocutors close to the Kremlin lead: Putin and Medvedev have a very trusting personal relationship, so that the president will not be able to dismiss his faithful ally. As a confirmation of the hardware capabilities of the prime minister, they give a story around the arrest of the ex-Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev. The team of FSB Safety, Oleg Feoktistov, who was arrested, was convinced that she did not need to get carried away with a serious collection of evidence of the official’s guilt: they hoped that the court would be closed, and the suspect himself would be in jail, the interlocutor in law enforcement agencies tells anonymity. That is why the evidence was poorly prepared, no one was going to seriously present them to the public. However, the government intervened, and the team came to let Ulyukaev go under house arrest and make the process open. The interlocutor, close to the Kremlin, says that Medvedev, who talked with the president, decided to intervene and achieved the team from him to the security forces "to reveal."
In addition, Medvedev is still convenient for Putin. After the film by Alexei Navalny, “He is not Dimon” to it is easy to dump all the sins of power on him - thus, he assumes all the dissatisfaction of the population, protecting Putin, reasoned by the informed interlocutor NT.
However, it is beneficial to preserve the current prime minister Putin only if he does not need to carry out serious reforms that require the head of government to promote them at all costs. Medvedev, as is commonly believed, is not suitable for this - does not have the necessary political will, says the interlocutor close to the presidential administration.
True, in the very version about the possible appointment of Medvedev there are two disadvantages.
Firstly, it is not a fact that the prime minister himself wants to continue to stay in the current post. For a long time he was experiencing departure from the post of president, for some time lost interest in work and even asked Putin’s resignation, the government said. The interlocutor even calls the exact time of such a petition - August 2014. However, Putin, according to the interlocutor, then did not let Medvedev leave. And now, according to the NT source, Medvedev is already selecting a post that gives more freedom. As such, the positions of the head of the energy company were discussed, which would unite several current companies, or a large region, for example, united St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region.
Secondly, after the election, Vladimir Putin must still demonstrate an update to society. It is unclear how the preservation of not only the first person, but also the second is consistent with this.
Technical Prime Minister
The most logical option of demonstrating the renewal of power would be the appointment of a young technocrat to the post of prime minister, that is, a successful official who does not have political ambitions. Until now, such officials have been appointed governors. Now they will inevitably appear in the government.
The technical prime minister needs Putin if he begins to fear the transformation into “lame duck” during his last period
The main contender for the role of a “young technocrat” in the government is considered to be the 35-year-old head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin. At the end of the summer, the Bloomberg agency called him the new favorite of Vladimir Putin, who supposedly already plays a more significant role under the head of state than his predecessors.
Photo: gospress.ru
Oreshkin really liked the article by Bloomberg, says the interlocutor in the government. According to him, many believe that the minister took her seriously and became proud.
Putin needs a technical prime minister if he begins to be afraid of turning into a “lame duck” during his last period. Then Putin will try to concentrate all power in his hands, and he will try to make a person who is deprived of a political weight as a prime minister.
Experience shows that Putin can prescribe this prime minister almost anyone. During his second period, when the president did not want to see an influential person in the second most important post, he appointed little -known and middle -aged Mikhail Fradkov and Viktor Zubkov. Putin formally held real candidates for their successors - Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Ivanov. Nothing prevents Putin from reproducing and now this scenario.
True, this time, the interlocutor close to the Kremlin notes, the technical premiere should be young - at least this will be progress.