Five problems for two

Syria, Iran, North Korea, Ukraine and disarmament issues: what will Putin wear to meet with Trump

The set of key topics that the presidents of Russia and the United States can touch upon during the announced meeting at the APEC summit in Vietnam this week is obvious - these are Syria, Iran, North Korea, Ukraine and disarmament issues. What the Russian approach consists of and how far the possibilities of reaching a compromise with the United States are generally visible here - it became largely clear from Putin's recent speech to the experts of the Valdai Club in Sochi, where I also happened to visit.

Disarmament and the arms race. On the sidelines of the forum, Putin's speech was nicknamed "Munich-2" - not only because it was filled with harsh criticism of the United States. It also contained a warning. Putin has signaled that if the United States violates or fails to comply with key disarmament agreements (referring to the proposed withdrawal of the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty - INF Treaty), then Russia will not only respond “instantly and in a mirror way”, as he put it, but will also deploy its weapons over wider territories**.

Nuclear deal with Iran. On this issue, judging by what Putin said, Russia has chosen the tactic of "sit and see." Let's remember: when the US and Iran agreed to curtail the Iranian nuclear program, Moscow continued to support this program. And now Russia is waiting not so much for what decision on the nuclear deal with Iran, which Trump wants to terminate, the US Congress will take, it is waiting for what position Europe will take, which now sees no reason to change anything in the agreements with Tehran. There is a feeling that Russia does not want to take initiatives on this issue, to take on some role, fearing that the EU will drift towards the United States.

Situation in the East of Ukraine. At Valdai, Putin was reminded of the position of the West on this issue: as far as the implementation of the Minsk agreements is concerned, the ball is on the Russian side. Putin retorted: no, the ball is on the side of the West, because, according to the Minsk agreements, Ukraine must negotiate autonomy for the Donbass along with reforming its constitution. And since this is not happening, the demilitarization of Donbass cannot be expected. Putin proceeds from the fact that the Ukrainian government is too weak to actually fulfill the terms of the Minsk agreements. That is why Russia supported the proposal to introduce UN peacekeepers into the conflict zone.

Syria. The ISIS*** group has recently suffered a number of major military defeats - both from Russia and its allies, and from the coalition led by the United States. It seems that now is the time to discuss some new peace initiative on Syria, but this is almost impossible as long as America threatens to attack or use force against Iran. At the same time, there is no pressure on Russia in Syria and the Assad regime. What Trump wants in the end, what the US military wants - the US strategy in the Syrian issue is not yet clear.

North Korea and its nuclear program. In this matter, the common interest is that someone - Russia, China, the European Union, the UN - act as an intermediary in the negotiations for a real peace treaty between North Korea and the United States. Such an agreement does not currently exist. Moreover, this issue was not raised in the United States under either the Democrats or the Republicans. I asked Russian representatives in Sochi whether they considered it theoretically possible to conclude such a treaty. Their answer was that before Trump came to the White House, such a theoretical possibility existed, but now even it has disappeared. But the conclusion of such an agreement, which, in fact, would give the North Korean regime some guarantees of its continued existence, could take place in exchange for North Korea's abandonment of the nuclear weapons development program. If the United States does not work on this, then other countries will certainly not be able to influence Pyongyang, the entire set of tools available to them comes down to economic pressure on the DPRK.

The readiness of Putin and Trump to meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Vietnam is a good signal. There are no unnecessary meetings between the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States at all. But whether the second Putin-Trump meeting will result in positive interaction on at least one of the above problem nodes is a big question.

* Anatole Lieven, British political scientist, professor at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in Qatar.

** The INF Treaty, which banned the development, production and deployment of missiles with a range of 500 to 5500 km, was signed by the leaders of the USSR and the USA in 1987. Moscow and Washington have been accusing each other of violating this treaty for several years. Thus, the United States claims that Russia is developing and even deploying the 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile for the Iskander complex, an analogue of the Kalibr missiles for the fleet.

*** "Islamic State", ISIS, IS is an organization banned in Russia as a terrorist organization.