People more often go outside, realizing that after March 2018 no one will hear them anymore

On November 7, on the day of the 100th anniversary of the revolution, in Chelyabinsk, the festive program of the Communist Party of the Communist Party was enriched with elements of a protest rally, since the event was invited to act as a group of deceived equity holders. Activists who were left without housing because of various ambiguous construction schemes “with pleasure” performed, although this does not mean that interest holders support the Communists. “We were simply given a platform to“ light up, ”says activist Elena Nasikhova .

The shares of equity holders - not only in Chelyabinsk - make a significant contribution to an increase in the total number of protests in Russia over the past few months. The Center for Economic and Political Reforms (CEPR) issued a report in which the growth of protests throughout the country was recorded in 2017. In the first quarter, experts counted 283 protest events, in the second-378, and in the third-already 445 different shares of people who disagree with something. Most of the shares are non -political in nature, in addition to equity holders, they are involved, for example, people who do not pay salaries.

Key points of protest - Moscow, Petersburg (here in the first place - politics), but also Rostov, Karelia, Sverdlovsk and Novosibirsk regions. The authors of the report are sure that an increase in the number of shares is a consequence of the economic crisis. However, not all experts agree with this assessment.

Need more gold, my lord

Firstly, the very gradation of protests on socio-economic and political and political in 2017 (that is, in the pre-election year) is very conditional, which makes the methodology of calculating somewhat ambiguous. For example, the protests of the truckers were originally socio-economic, but now the drivers who disagree with Plato themselves say that the issue has come to another level. “Even for citizens, we explain that the protest against the Plato system is not that many say that we are fighting for our pockets. “Plato” is already a political issue in fact, and he beats every citizen. We try to explain this to people that any load on us goes into the final product. We are also consumers, our wealth is not growing, we simply distribute these overhead costs, but we ourselves go to the same stores and buy goods at high prices. Our social protest was partly political, ”explains Andrei Bazhutin in a conversation with the“ new ”coordinator and leader of the protest movement of truckers.

On the other hand, the same equity holders in Chelyabinsk do not consider their protest political. “We protest to solve precisely our problem,” says Elena Nasikhova. - Working groups appear under the government, at the Legislative Assembly. But there is no sense in these working groups. Just everyone sets themselves a checkmark "We work with equity holders." And in fact what has moved? Nothing". At the same time, a series of single pickets of equity holders took place in Chelyabinsk before the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Nursultan Nazarbayev on November 9. But on the day the presidents arrived, all protest promotions turned the interest holders, because otherwise "we will most likely take us."

In other words, the structure of protest is not as obvious as it seems at first glance. In addition, growth indicator does not allow far -reaching conclusions. “These numbers are indirect indicators. They show that there are some stresses, but they do not allow us to judge that the protest trend will develop and in principle continue, ”says political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky . Economist Natalya Zubarevich adds: there are no basic factors to strengthen socio-economic protest, so such numbers look quite strange. “The number of protesting equity holders has not increased, these are the same people go out,” Tosubarevich thinks in an interview with the “new”. - The truckers have a network community, any chain reaction is possible there, but these are the same protests on Plato. The number of people who work on a part -time do not grow up. The unemployment rate has not grown either. ”

The only more or less intelligible reason why the surge of protest moods is possible, including in the social field, is the electoral cycle, Zubarevich says: at the same time, protests migrate from social to political plane. “If people began to protest faster, they are also preparing for the elections,” the economist is ironic. “They are trying to scream not into the void, but in the hope that the master will hear.” This is confirmed by the activist of the group of deceived equity holders in Chelyabinsk Elena Nasikhova. “When the elections pass, everyone will give a damn about us,” she is sure. - It sounds open in the Ministry of Construction. Therefore, of course, now, before the elections, we are focusing [to protest]: and we go out into the streets, and write, and sit in the offices. ”

“We even had a demand for the resignation of the government, now we have pushed him to the background and do not voice it,” says Andrei Bazhutin from protesting truckers. - It has not gone anywhere, just in 2018 there will be presidential elections. The Cabinet of Ministers will be dissolved, replaced, and this requirement is now not particularly relevant. Although we have not moved away from this requirement at all, it is. ” In general, everything that happens to them and other protesters on socio-economic issues is the “real policy”, Bazhutin adds. “And all that is called“ politics ”in our country is just a circus with political clowns,” he says.

After - it will be visible

Are these indicators in all matters to them a danger signal for the current government? “After political exits to the streets, all social protests for the authorities are seeds,” says Natalya Zubarevich. - I do not think that this will be considered as a serious destabilizing story. They will just try to prevent the protests. As with Plato was: they blocked in parking lots, did not allow to unite - standard technocratic actions for stopping. Local protests for the authorities are not dangerous. ”

It is also necessary to take into account the patience of the people themselves, which, with rare exceptions, is almost limitless, which allows the authorities to breathe completely. “The protests, especially social ones, very rarely create a coalition that is dangerous for the authorities,” recalls Gleb Pavlovsky. - With the exception of the famous, almost the only case with the monetization of benefits, they are all local. Therefore, protests show (this, so to speak, an important “sensor”) for some problems, but they don’t at all say which one ”. True, the authorities also do not make sense to strongly relax: people tolerate things that irritate them greatly, and then “explode about trifles,” adds a political scientist. “Very high irritation causes a constant increase in the penalty on the population,” he cites an example. -But outwardly, everyone pays fines and do not refuse to pay them. This is a deep reason, and outwardly it can be expressed, say, in protests about the abolition of some tram route. ”

Of course, the tension can and most likely will grow. By December 15, the same truckers promise the All -Russian protest - just network, not local. “There is pressure from the side of the Ministry of Transport, the requirements are tightened, fines for Plato are increasing. The community of carriers does not accept this system. This must be understood, ”explains Andrei Bazhutin. In addition, the regions one by one began to talk about the impossibility of fulfilling the “May decrees” due to the lack of money, which theoretically could lead to protests from beneficiaries and pensioners. The same Karelia, who was the first to say that the treasury for the “May decrees” is empty, is also included in the list of CEPs as one of the most protesting regions.

However, the impossibility of paying does not mean automatic growth of protests. In addition, Zubarevich clarifies, this was not stated to strengthen the unrest, but in order to shield himself: in the same Karelia, the new governor of the Parfenchikov, in order not to be responsible for holes in the budget, decided to publicly distance himself from a deliberately losing position: they say, it was already when I came. It is unlikely that the Kremlin will like such publicity, and “horizontal [protest] ties at the level of regional organs will not allow this regime,” at least to the election. True, and then it will not work to relax. “These presidential elections will not in this sense be a border of the transition to peace. The country entered the period of strategically strongly growing instability, ”concludes Pavlovsky.