Dreams and reality of the heir to the throne

In the Middle East, in recent weeks, the main political events unfolded in Saudi Arabia, where dozens of members of the monarch family, large entrepreneurs and even the head of the National Guard Mutaib Bin Abdullah were arrested under the pretext of combating corruption. Almost simultaneously with the detention of the suspects in corruption, a helicopter crashed, in which the deputy governor of the province of Asir Prince Mansur Bin Mukrin and the seven people accompanied, including high -ranking government officials. This immediately gave rise to rumors that the catastrophe had happened no coincidence. The observers agree that the current king of Saudi Arabia Salman clears the way to the throne to his son Muhammad Bin Salman, although traditionally the power in Saudi Arabia passes from brother to brother.

Saudi Arabia was directly involved in the political crisis in Lebanon in the last days, whose Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced on November 4 that he was resigned, being precisely in Saudi Arabia. Hariri noted that he fears for his life and security. His father Rafik Hariri, who also held the post of head of the Lebanese government, was killed as a result of an attempt in Beirut in 2005. At the same time, President Lebanon Michel Aun accused Riyadh of forcibly holding Saad Hariri in Saudi Arabia.

Candidate of historical sciences, expert on the countries of the Middle East, Anar Sadykhov, believes that with his actions, both in foreign and domestic politics, the king and the crown -Princant are laid down a ming of a slow action :

-In your article about the latest events in Saudi Arabia, you write that the stability of the monarchy in the country was held on three pillars-the unity of the al-Saud family, the conservative character of the theocratic Islamic state and the loyalty of the local business community. And you emphasize that the current king and the crown prince strike at all three pillars at the same time. What, in your opinion, makes them do this?

Anar Sadykhov

- Until now, in Saudi Arabia there were rules for the transfer of power horizontally - from brother to brother. And the current king Salman, who is only two years after the death of King Abdullah, violated this rule. Many people are unhappy with this. Naturally, the Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman understands this perfectly and, as a result, began to act preventively. On the day when mass detentions were held on charges of corruption, a helicopter crashed. Prince Mansur bin Mukrin and seven high -ranking civil servants died. This prince led a fairly active campaign against Muhammad bin Salman: he sent letters, called for the most possible counteracting the efforts of the crown prince. There are rumors that a radical decision was made, and it was eliminated.

Muhammad bin Salman is a young man, he does not always correctly calculate the risks

A preventive blow was inflicted not only on the political elite, but also to the economic bloc, a decent number of people with serious financial capabilities were detained. According to the calculations of Wall Street Journal, frozen, blocked accounts and assets in the amount of $ 800 billion. True, most of them, of course, are abroad, but there is a mechanism for their return for possible nationalization. And the third point is media resources. Media Magnate al-Valid al-Ibrahim, who owns the NBC media holding, was taken into custody. NBC, in particular, includes Al-Arabia. I repeat, Muhammad Bin Salman wants to concentrate the power as much as possible in his hands - political, economic, to control media resources.

King of Saudi Arabia Salman

- Why right now Muhammad Bin Salman decided to destroy the existing horizontal mechanism for transferring power and establish a vertical - from father to son?

- Muhammad bin Salman is a young, ambitious, impulsive person. The actions that he takes both in the foreign policy sphere (it is enough to bring Qatar or Lebanon as an example), and in domestic politics, in my opinion, they show that he does not always correctly calculate the risks. This indicates his inexperience and impulsiveness. Why right now? The fact is that time is running out. King Salman has very serious health problems. And information is actively imposed that he can transfer the fullness of power to his son either at the end of this year, or at the beginning of the next. Therefore, they decided right now to be especially activated. Even in the summer, in August - early September, there were detentions among sufficiently famous religious and public figures who are dissatisfied with changes in domestic politics. We are talking about some liberalization of society, the creation of the state of temperate Islam. There is a project for the creation of a resort network on the islands along the coast of the Red Sea by 2022, where quite liberal standards of behavior will be allowed. Given that Muslim shrines are nearby, very many conservatives do not like it. So the detention began even then, and now they continue, only on a more serious scale.

“Is there a road back from Prince Bin Salman?” After all, members of the monarch of the family arrested as part of the anti -corruption campaign should face trial. The laws in Saudi Arabia seem very tough. Kronprint, having sorted out competitors and having achieved the necessary influence, if he succeeds, will forgive those who opposed him? Or will they go to prison, and not to their homes from a five-star hotel prison, in which, as many media write, are they now contained?

The Saudis has a very serious confrontation with Iran throughout the Middle East

- I think the punishments will be quite moderate. The Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Naif, for example, is placed under house arrest. He is forbidden to leave the territory of Saudi Arabia, his accounts are frozen. The “forgiveness” scheme can be quite simple - freedom in exchange for the return of assets and funds. In Saudi Arabia, there is a death penalty, but it seems to me that nevertheless, Muhammad bin Salman will not go to such cardinal measures. And it is still unknown how this story will end.

The head of the National Guard was detained. And the National Guard is a very serious institution in Saudi Arabia. This is actually a military stronghold of the monarchy, numbering one hundred thousand soldiers. For comparison: the Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia-about two hundred twenty thousand. The National Guard may become the initiator of the coup. This cannot be ruled out. According to official information, about two hundred people were detained, according to unofficial - at least five hundred, plus a decent number of people who are forbidden to leave the territory of Saudi Arabia. Accordingly, the number of ill -wishers, a lot of dissatisfied. The Crown Prince made a serious mistake. There were people who, perhaps, did not like what he did, but they were calm about it. They were not belligerent to him. But he made them his enemies. It can do it dearly.

- Judging by what you say, Muhammad bin Salman risks very much. In the event that Crown Prince loses and does not hold in power, will we witness the strengthening of Islamic radicalism in Saudi Arabia?

- Saudi Arabia today, in principle, is already a very conservative state. It is possible to abolish the measures that were taken. For example, permission for women to drive cars. It was to some extent a revolution. The Kronprint has a plan for creating a “city of future” called Neom in the northwest of the country, and he is going to invest $ 550 billion, mainly foreign investment. Although now the question arises - what foreign investors will invest in a country that takes away assets from their own citizens? According to the Bloomberg agency, serious businessmen are very preoccupied with what is happening and are going to, on the contrary, to output their assets from the territory of Saudi Arabia. Neom, a futuristic technological city with liberal norms of behavior that Bin Salman wants to build, personifies the future of the country, its prototype in his vision. If the current actions end for the prince deplorable, then these initiatives will most likely be curtailed, and Saudi Arabia will return to its previous course.

- What is the reason for the last aggravation in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Livan?

- I will answer this question a little wider. The Saudis has a very serious confrontation with Iran, and almost everywhere in the Middle East. In Syria, the situation is developing unsuccessfully for Saudi Arabia, because the groups that it supported was defeated, or now agree with the regime in Damascus. In Yemen, the Husites, who are actively supporting Iran, control the capital of the sanitary. Husites periodically make sorties to the territory of Saudi Arabia, shelling it. More recently, a rocket, flying 750 km, fell in the area of the Riyadh Airport. She managed to knock down the air defense forces, but this is a very serious threat. One of the claims was to Qatar that he, in the understanding of Saudi Arabia, has too good relations with Iran. And as a result, Qatar became even closer to Iran.

Husita recruits in Yemen shout anti-Saudi slogans. July 2017

Saudi Arabia, having thrown Iraq in due time, has recently become very activated there. They began to invite Iraqi religious figures directly to Riyadh, traveled, met. Saudis are trying to move Iraq from Iran, because Iran has a very serious influence in Iraq. And now a new site is Lebanon.

It is no secret that Iran and maintaining Tehran, the Hezbolla group have a noticeable influence there. According to the Constitution in Lebanon, the main government posts were distributed as follows: the president is a Christian-marine, Prime Minister-Sunnit, the head of the parliament is Shiit. So, President Michel Aun is a supporter of Hezbollah. He has a very good relationship with Iran. And Saudi Arabia expected that the prime minister Saad Hariri could somehow resist this. And in the understanding of the Saudis, he did not actively act in this direction. They decided to aggravate the situation in Lebanon, destabilize politically, try to push Israel to a military invasion of Lebanon, to which Israel, of course, would not go without a very, very significant reason. So Lebanon is the next site of the confrontation of the Saudis with Iran. Until now, at all the sites that I listed, Saudi Arabia turned out to be a loser. I think that the story will be repeated in Lebanon, ”says political scientist Anar Sadykhov .