Igor Bunin: Future of Syria: Basic scenarios

Igor Bunin Jabber Castle in Muhafaz Rakka, repelled by SDF by ISIS VOA terrorists

The theme of the future Syria was discussed during the meeting of the presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey, held on November 22 in Sochi. The meeting showed that, due to the difference in interest, the consent has been reached so far not on all key issues. Meanwhile, the United States operating in the north of Syria intends to linger there and try to establish a new government in the region.

The United States’s intention to maintain its military presence in Syria and even establish a new government in the north of the country by the newspaper Washington Post , referring to its own sources. The publication claims that Washington intends to continue to help the Arab-Kurdian detachments of the “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF), operating in the region, since he does not want Bashar Assad to remain in power. The newspaper emphasizes that the further stay of Assad as the president will become a victory for Iran, who is the closest ally of Syria.

Rakka internal security forces detachment, part of SDF VOA

Recall that in September it was reported that the United States withdrew troops from one of its two bases in the south of Syria as part of an agreement with Russia on the formation of a descalation zone in Deraa's province. However, judging by the Wasington Post, the USA does not plan to withdraw the remaining forces.

The sources of the publication also argued that, according to Washington, the preservation of the US contingent in Syria may force Assad to make concessions during the Geneva negotiations, which should resume at the end of November.

Meanwhile, on November 22, the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran held negotiations in Sochi to resolve the political situation in Syria. According to their results, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani supported the Moscow initiative to conduct a Congress of Syrian national dialogue. According to media reports, the summit participants excluded the undermining of unity in Syria.

Meeting Vladimir Putin with Hassan Rukhani and Recep Erdogan Kremlin.ru

True, according to the Kommersant newspaper, making a statement for the press, the Turkish President clarified that Ankara has serious complaints about some representatives of the Syrian forces (it was about Syrian Kurds, the activation of which is worried about Turkey, where quite a few Kurds also live). At the same time, the journalists of the publication resemble, political scientists do not exclude that the Turkish president expressed dissatisfaction in order to have an occasion to meet with the President of Syria - and get the opportunity to agree with him about the further stay of the Turkish troops on the territory of Syria on the border with Turkey.

Nevertheless, the Syria government welcomed the final statement of the summit in Sochi. This was announced by Sana by the official source in the Syrian Foreign Ministry.

Political scientists interviewed by various media expresses opinions about what can happen in the event of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, which is planned to be committed by the New Year, as well as what the interests of the United States in this country and whether the presence of American troops in Syria is related to the attempt to weaken Iran's positions.

Igor Mikhailovich Bunin, President of the Center for Political Technology, agreed to comment for Polit.ru for Polit.ru. In his opinion, in the development of the situation, two possible scenarios are still visible, including the transformation of Syria into a confederation.

“We are now entering the next phase - a post -war phase, when we need to create a new Syria with the new rules of the game. This can happen in Geneva, this can happen in Astana; We proposed to conduct the Congress of the Syrian national dialogue in Sochi - in a word, until the place was determined. But, in any case, Putin, when he talked with Trump, spoke primarily about Syria.

The situation in Syria is of the following in nature. If we consider the desert, then, most likely, Assad controls 60-70% of the entire Syrian territory. If you remove the desert, then Assad has about 50%. At the same time, approximately 30-35% of the territory is the north and northeast, which are under Kurdish and American control-plus control of the so-called opposition forces. As for other territories, Turkey still has interests there.

Refugees in Syria SDF

Thus, there are a lot of participants who would like to understand what the post -war Syria should be. Yes, the congress is being prepared now, and certain forces should be represented on it. We believe, for example, that Nusra should not be represented there - this is one of the extreme radical organizations, actually closely connected, if not with the ISIS itself prohibited in Russia, then with the same ideological course.

What do the United States do in this situation? Since these same “democratic forces” in reality can be said to be no one, the United States is trying to create in the north and north-east the territory in its patronage-official, formalized, along with the Kurds. And if there are Kurds, then there will be some part of the Arab population, because the Kurds sometimes try to attract the Arabs with a quiet sapa and create in this way that this is not Kurdish territory, but Kurdsk-Arab or even Arab-Kurdsk.

SDF hêzeth sûriya demokratîk

Then, in the process of negotiations, it will always be possible to say that this territory has the right to represent not just some part of the opposition forces of an incomprehensible family, but a specific territory. Well, first of all, the territory in the vicinity of Rakka is the largest settlement, which is not under the control of Assad.

And there are two possible scenarios for the development of further events. One scenario provides that - and some of our political scientists even talked about him - Assad will eventually remain only Alavites and Latakia, the Syria state will turn into a confederation, and Assad will control only one part of the territory.

There is another probable script. Since we begin the negotiation process with the United States of America, and we try to agree with the United States that Iran will not be a hegemon in this territory (we are a little ready, or maybe even greatly distance ourselves from Iran), then in this situation another opportunity is protruded. This is a government consisting of different elements, where instead of Assad, it is quite possible that there will be some other person.

International Islamic Conferences on the problems of radicalism and takfir. Tehran, November 22, 2017 Mahmood Hosseini / Tasnimnews.com

These are two more or less likely options. It’s hard to imagine that the Government of Syria will lead Assad itself. But at the same time, it is difficult to imagine that Syria will become confederations, breaks up into parts. So now I cannot say what the future of Syria will be. But it can be assumed that one of these two scenarios will work.

Usually such negotiations, judging by Afghanistan, last for a very long time - for years. But here all the parties are in a hurry, so perhaps the issue will not be resolved for years, but much faster, ”said Igor Bunin.

It is currently assumed that the Congress of the Syrian National Dialogue may take place in Russia on December 2.

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