2018: Putin - in the Kremlin, Medvedev - in the White House "

This seems to be a solved option. But why will it not be announced?

In the political culture of Russia after 2014, fortune -telling about future power is technically extremely simple.

The game has two coins. The first - whether Vladimir Putin remains at the post of president: although it is well known that this ruble is not able to fall without shocks of the foundations of the entire system, the idea “what if ...” is certainly popular. The second coin is the post of prime minister.

Dmitry Medvedev, unlike Vladimir Putin, is quite able to change the place of work, without destroying the current version of Russian statehood, but by opening this scope for an unlimited number of combinations. No information about when the coins are thrown away, no, always (no matter what words were said publicly) there remains the likelihood that the coins are already thrown away and the result is already known. It remains only to guess.

Status quo?

The events of the second half of November suggest that the most obvious decision has been made-Vladimir Putin in March 2018 remains in the Kremlin as president, and Dmitry Medvedev on the Krasnopresnenskaya embankment as a prime minister. The presidential protocol in Russia loves to talk about such things with vague hints. For example, the joint visit of Putin, Medvedev, Patriarch Kirill and a number of other very important persons (for example, the chairman of the Board of Directors of Gazprom and the former Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov) to the Moscow Monastery of the Novogierusalem Monastery, it is difficult to consider otherwise than a demonstration of marginal stability for the future. All branches of the authorities in the spiritual center restore the historical foundations of Russia - where, if not in the new Jerusalem, to show everyone interested that Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev will continue the coordinated work for the benefit of the Orthodox kingdom without a change in places?

Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Osseline of the Voskresensky Novo-Jerusalem Monastery, Istra, Moscow Region, November 15, 2017 Photo: Kremlin.ru **

Of course, the New Jerusalem Monastery is not God the news what a good place for hints. It is enough that Patriarch Nikon in the XVII century built it as a Russian existential response to the emerging end of the world, and he built a break in a quarrel on the separation of power of power with Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich. Upon completion of the construction, the Patriarch was deposed, and the country entered during the church split-in general, if someone wants to build analogies in the 21st century, then be careful. The meeting on November 21 Dmitry Medvedev with the heads of oil companies in Khanty-Mansiysk is more important. He did not have a formal meaning (it was initially assumed that he would be held by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich), since his main topic was to provide oil and nonpie benefits-it is impossible to change taxes for 2018 technically, the corresponding laws must pass the parliament and the president until December 1. In addition, in recent years, the Prime Minister, unlike the president, did not publicly deal with oil affairs. One of the possible meanings of what is happening is to demonstrate that the main economic industry of the country can and should be resolved issues with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. From which it may follow that both coins fell by an eagle: in March 2018, as, in general, it was most rational to assume, nothing would happen, the president will remain president, Prime Minister Prime Minister, and, consequently, there is no need to wait for other great changes.

Both coins fell by eagle: in March 2018, as, in general, it was most rational to assume, nothing would happen, the president will remain president, Prime Minister Prime Minister

Throwing under the carpet

Why, in fact, do not declare this more than expected news aloud, why are endless probes of public opinion, visits to monasteries and deposits, demonstrations of non -existent intrigues? Isn’t it easier to say right away - yes, everything is in order, comrades, nothing changes, work as you worked, everything is fine? The fact is that the destructive potential of the news “Putin in the Kremlin, Medvedev in the White House” is too well aware of in the Kremlin, and in the White House, and in all the power structures of Russia. This news is terribly afraid of this news, it really looks like a harbinger of the end of the world, and in the eyes of people in power, which in theory should have considered such a decision the only true and possible.

Nevertheless, it is almost inevitable. If you distract from the purely Russian, internal perception of what is happening, the situation is worthy of only good caricature. Caricatures for an entire country, which has been expected for many months now, will finally report that nothing new has happened and will not happen - and now she is informed, and she is at a loss.

After all, there is no person in this country, including in the Kremlin and in the White House, who would not realize the problem: the scheme “everything remains as it is, nothing changes, and this is forever”, which looks universal, logical and the only possible solution is not a solution, this is the recognition of the impossibility of solving and solving and solving.

On the one hand, Eka Nonvidal is no secret to anyone that this inability to decide anything in recent years is the only driving factor in the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. This is a strange development, but it is evident. The axiom “They will think for three years and decide for three years” laid down in most business strategies and career strategies since 2012, and this is very convenient. On the other hand, since authority still exist, and use them - in the mostly destructive way - the power is still able to, then all these strategies are extremely brief in time.

The destructive potential of the news “Putin in the Kremlin, Medvedev in the White House” is too well aware of in the Kremlin, in the White House, and in all the power structures of Russia. This news is terribly afraid, it really looks like a harbinger of the end of the world, and in the eyes of people in power

Pluses and cons of autocracy

Reducing horizons of planning in autocratic modes is a contributive phenomenon. It would seem that the only excuse for the vertical of power, for its irremovability, for autocracy in its most diverse versions, is just the need to implement long -term strategies. This is a completely common thing: a few months after coming to power, very well-educated “dream teams” from reformal ministries realize that the reform program they draw up cannot in any way in a four-five-year period allotted for its implementation by the electoral cycle. We need seven to eight, and in the mind-and fifteen years. In the end, what are we counting on? Every year the concept of “power” in the world is becoming more and more likely to the economic concept: power is primarily an economic regulator. Economic sectors regulated by power cannot develop instantly. Entrepreneurs need long horizons of planning - the more developed the economy, the higher the competition, the lower the profitability. Who will be invested in the infrastructure project with payback, say, at 17, if after three years the new composition of the parliament will block it, and the new minister of transport will have new reference projects in a year and a half? The irremovability of power or at least its guaranteed continuity looks like a natural way to guarantee the business and the population as long planning horizons: this is declared the main and most valuable fruit of political stability, which associate “vertical” regimes. What is the parliamentary republic, what coalition governments, what are you talking about? Now we can count on the fact that modern medicine will allow large investment funds to the authorities to invest in projects with a payback period of up to thirty, or even thirty -five years! These are high -speed railways, these are nuclear stations, these are fundamental scientific research, this is space! What do you offer? Immediately after the contest of the populists, called by the misunderstanding of the “elections”, is it preparing for the next four years? Who needs all this at all, except for a couple of tens of thousands of politicized citizens-narcissions? Let them go to talk shows for television, and all for a short time.

The price of this logic is clearly visible right now, at the end of 2017. In the seventeenth year of the field experiment, the planning horizon of any Russian company decreased from moderate four to five years in 2001-2003 to three to six months, starting from 2009. Less, it seems, is simply impossible - nothing will work at all. It is not so difficult to explain why this happens. In a normal situation, the planning horizon in both the economy and in society (from this point of view, the entrepreneurial, political and public initiative - this is one and the same) depends on the stability of institutions demonstrated. There are many complaints to institutional theory, it often gives failures, but here these achievements are more than appropriate - there are institutions or not, but in a stable political and social environment, any enterprises increase planning horizons, and in unstable - reduce. The irremovability of the authorities, its “verticalization” and the movement to autocracy are artificial stabilization of the environment due to its institutional impoverishment. Where previously we could talk about the predictability of the state regulation, taxes, the openness of sectors for investment, the development of NPOs, depending on the very inertial and more or less predictable development of political processes, now we are talking only about taking into account the interests and will of several dozen top managers of the insane regime.

These interests, by the way, do not always make sense to describe as selfish, although most often they are such. The world knew many more or less honest (we have someone to compare with) autocrats - from Portuguese Salazar to Singaporets Lee Kuan Yu. It can even be assumed that from the point of view of the topic under discussion it does not matter at all whether autocrats that destroy the institutional environment are honest. The only important thing is that at a certain moment the complex design of the institutions is replaced by personalized structures.

And people, alas, tend to change. And Vladimir Putin, and Dmitry Medvedev, and Alexei Kudrin, and anyone in 2001 and 2017-people have changed significantly. The meaning of the institutions in this perspective (and we mainly deal with democratic institutions) is to create a stable and developing environment from personal changes and development of millions of actors. In the vertical of power, always degenerating into one or another form of autocracy, this environment is degrading - and the economy, together with society, are forced to focus on the personal evolution of several actors.

From the point of view of the topic under discussion, it does not matter at all whether autocrats that destroy the institutional environment are honest. The only important thing is that at a certain moment the complex design of the institutions is replaced by personalized constructions

Without horizon

The military junta in Myanmar at some point perfectly destabilized the unsuccessfully interpreted court astrologer by the Buddhist horoscope. In Russia, some unsuccessfully read by Vladimir Putin at night the article by Ivan Ilyin easily causes radical changes to the strategy of healthcare reform, and the term accidentally dropped in the presence of Dmitry Medvedev causes long-term budget programs such as “The program for reducing digital inequality”-and this costs the budget of tens of billions of rubles a year. And it would be okay with the budget, in the end, the possibilities of changing something in it are very limited even for the Prime Minister and even the president. A society, which is extremely tense listening to the imperious heaven in the pose “What are they saying there?” - this is the caricature for December 2017.

They don’t say anything there. They gathered, listened, did not solve anything, postponed the question of the future, which is as much as they wanted. It doesn't matter what will happen in the elections in March 2018. Since April 2018, everything will be exactly the same as now, both in form and in content. We will repair the new Jerusalem to the second coming-and there, you see, for us they will decide something there, upstairs.

In fact, this design is completely impossible, and this will become obvious, it seems, long before the day of the fool, until April 1. The moment at which Putin will be declared in the Kremlin, Medvedev in the White House will inevitably become a moment to which everything will change-even all the elements of the power machine that expect this decision as the only true one will be deeply amazed and disappointed with this ad, since even for several years they lived a hidden hope that something could change. If nothing can change, then starting from March 2018 and further on any day it can change at any moment, and the planning horizon of everything in the world, and so compressed to months, will be reduced to a technical minimum in Russia - until the end of the current month or even until the end of the week. “Nothing changes” everything changes, this is exactly the situation in which the lack of replacement of power means a change in the actual power in a random way, an unknown and unpredictable way, into an unknown to anyone.

If nothing can change, then starting from March 2018 and further on any day it can change at any moment, and the planning horizon of everything in the world, and so compressed to months, will be reduced to a technical minimum in Russia

That is why with the announcement of “Putin - in the Kremlin, Medvedev - in the White House” they will pull to the last.