Translated material
Dangerous recognition
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, December 6, made a speech in which he announced the recognition of Jerusalem to the capital of Israel and the transfer of Tel Aviv soon the American embassy. This decision of Trump has already been severely criticized and caused a shaft of warnings from political leaders, including the United States allies, and throughout the Muslim world and in Europe. So what can be the consequences?
Representatives of the Donald Trump administration say that the US president is confident in his actions and believes that "now the right time for the right step", which will not be able to interfere with the peace process in the Middle East. “The president is aware of how a scrupulous problem is, but he believes that this is a recognition of reality,” said one of his assistants. “We are moving forward on the basis of a truth that is indisputable. This is just a fact.”
The US State Department today warned the employees of the American Embassy in Tel Aviv that they should refrain from traveling to Jerusalem and to the western bank of the Jordan River from December 4 to 20.
Donald Trump has stated the intention to recognize Jerusalem to the capital of Israel many times during his election campaign in 2016 that his voters were warmly welcomed from among the most conservative wing of the Republican Party and numerous communities of American Christians-gospelists . In 1995, the American Congress adopted a law prescribing no later than May 31, 1999 to transfer the American embassy in Israel in Jerusalem and containing the recognition of the “indivisible Jerusalem” of the Israeli capital.
However, in this law, the US President retains the right to impose a temporary veto every six months. This right was consistently enjoyed every six months during his presidency Bill Clinton, George Bush Jr. and Barack Obama, insisting that Congress did not have the right to determine the foreign policy of the United States. In June of this year, Donald Trump also postponed the Jerusalem question for six months, but for the second time he refused to do this. Trump reported this to the leaders of Israel, Palestinian autonomy, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan during recent telephone conversations with them.
Donald Trump announces the recognition of Jerusalem by the unified capital of Israel. Washington, December 6th
At the same time, another representative of the US Presidential Administration also said that the transfer of the American Embassy in Israel will inevitably stretch for several years, since this place of work of thousands of people, for which no one has yet begun to look after a suitable building in Jerusalem.
Join Me Live from the @whitehouse via #periscope https://t.co/wlxkoisstg
- Donald J. Trump (@realdonaldtrump) December 6, 2017
At the international level, Jerusalem, where all Israeli structures of the legislative and executive branch are located, is not recognized as the capital, since its status should be determined in peace negotiations with the Palestinian autonomy. The Palestinian side considers that the eastern part of Jerusalem, including most of the old city, where the religious shrines of Muslims, Christians and Jews, occupied by Israel during the Six Day War in 1967 , will be concentrated in the future capital of an independent Palestinian state.
"Representatives of the Palestinian people around the world will not allow this conspiracy to be successful against them, and we are considering all options for protecting their land and sacred places for us," said Hamas Ismail Khaniya, the head of the group of Hamas Ismail Hania .
About what the consequences of Washington of Jerusalem can be the capital of Israel, in an interview with Radio, Liberty is reasoned by a political scientist, a political scientist, professor Grigory Kosach :
- World leaders, almost all Muslim, most European leaders, say that Trump’s decision can have catastrophic consequences. Will they really be so disastrous?
- I think that, at least in the Muslim world, the situation will radically change - forces will develop, which are usually called extremist in this region. When the king of Saudi Arabia Salman , in particular, during a telephone conversation with Trump, said that the recognition of Jerusalem by the capital of Israel will be a strong provocation for the Muslim world, he was in many ways right. He is afraid of the strengthening of the role of Iran, is afraid of the strengthening of radical groups associated with Iran in the Arab world - the situation will be largely insoluble. In the end, we must not forget about the Arab peace initiative, which involves negotiating with Israel on the final settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But in the event that the eastern part of Jerusalem, from which no one in the Arab-Muslim world is going to retreat, will become an officially recognized part of the capital of the state of Israel, all this will be destroyed and destroyed. And this will introduce an additional note of confusion and confusion, anarchy in the situation in the Middle East.
- Will a new large -scale intifada begin? Is there any reason for this? Are there any forces that can start it, which will consider the actually new war profitable?
Intifada may begin, and there is absolutely no doubt about it
- Yes, sure! Intifada may begin, and there is absolutely no doubt about it. There is a Hamas group, who again returned to the arms of Iran and did not conclude a real peace agreement with the FATH, and did not regulate his problems, and there is a Hezbollah group that does not need any characteristics now. There is an Islamic jihad, and many other groups, and, in the end, are quite radical forces in Fatha itself , which do not consider it possible to support the current Palestinian leadership. Yes, and this leadership itself, if the irreparable consequences of this step of Trump begin, will be forced to go in a common fairway, supporting this intifada, just like it was during the previous events.
- Can I generally regard the prospect of the appearance of an American embassy in Jerusalem in the future as a good gift to Palestinian organizations? Because there is an opinion, we talked about this that no peaceful process is unprofitable for them for the main reason: because any world will mean the end of their comfortable financial existence, the end of their political and monetary support from a huge number of states and movements around the world?
- Yes! The recognition and transfer of the US Embassy means that the radical Palestinian groups again come to the forefront in the military-political struggle in the Middle Eastern space. Numerous gifts, donations and much more will be sprinkled on them again, they will gain authority - as forces that “fight against the Zionist occupation”, for the return of Muslim shrines, and so on. In this sense, this, of course, is a gift from the Palestinian side.
Light projection of the flags of the United States and Israel on the wall of the old city of Jerusalem. Evening December 6, 2017
- Donald Trump always, making another foreign policy decision, focuses on the intra -American audience , I would say, only on it. Does he even have a formulated concept of further actions in the Middle East? He understands what is happening in the region and how much everything is confused there? Or does it matter to him?
- Most of the steps of the US president are distinguished by absolute inconsistency, they are determined by the circumstances of the time and place. "It seems, you need to do this today? So we will do this, let's say we will strike at Syrian territory ." Act more programmed, planned is most likely not his path. And the same applies, of course, to the transfer of the embassy to Jerusalem. I do not think that he calculated all the consequences of this step. And they, I repeat, can be catastrophic for the situation and the United States themselves in the region. Of course, this is a solution to the problems associated with the internal audience. But the same internal American audience should understand, and the US president must realize that it, this audience, is associated with the outside world, and the satisfaction of its interests will cause great damage to the image, position, status of their own country on a global scale.
-For Moscow, such an event as changing the status of Jerusalem in the eyes of the United States means any changes in its policy in the region? Given the interests and actions of the Kremlin in relation to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and in the war in Syria, and in many other aspects. Mahmud Abbas, for example, it was Vladimir Putin who asked to influence Trump to change his mind ...
Trump's step will, of course, be used in Moscow - to unleash the propaganda campaign
- Mahmoud Abbas is somewhat exaggerated by the capabilities of the Russian president. It will be extremely difficult to influence Trump Putin, if possible. I think that Trump’s step will, of course, be used in Moscow - to unleash the propaganda campaign. Russia will declare its support to the Palestinians, the importance of Palestinian national rights. The Kremlin most likely emphasizes the sequence of its own position. "Well, how, West Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, East Jerusalem is the capital of the Palestinian state." All this will take place. But in fact, Russia cannot have any serious impact on Trump, but also in principle on the Middle East situation, on the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Russia cannot and, most likely, will not be able to in the future. These are all big illusions, if we have in mind any opportunities in Moscow.
- You noticed that the policy of Russia in the Arab world, in general in the Muslim world, is rather reactive than consistent. And at the same time, Moscow in the last year all the time wants to present itself to the international community as a powerful peaceful power throughout the Middle East . Now the Kremlin will have even more Palestinian and generally Arab friends?
-Russia may have as many Palestinian and Arab friends, and the Kremlin may say that the visit of any Arab ruler to Moscow proves that Russia has enormous opportunities for influence in the region, and in the world as a whole. But how hard is this influence, how much will it and can rely on the real forces of Moscow? See for yourself: Moscow does not play any significant role in matters related to Palestinian-Israeli settlement. Moscow, for all its friendship with Israel, is (and not only recently, this happened much earlier) in a very difficult relationship with the Israelis in connection with the Iranian problem. Moscow cannot achieve any coordination of actions between Tehran, Ankara and itself in Syria. Moscow says too much! It represents itself as a certain power, but whether it is a real force in the situation that now exists and will take shape in the region of the Middle East - this is a big question.
Moscow says too much!
- Washington, recognizing Jerusalem the capital, albeit with any reservations, confirms that Israel is his main ally in the region, this will strengthen their friendship. And who can Washington really lose as an ally or at least a partner? Moreover, I mean serious, real consequences, and not diplomatic shocking air?
- We are unlikely to see serious consequences of this kind, if we talk about real American allies in the region. Yes, there will be a tremendous concussion, first of all. Yes, there will be a very serious anger from Saudi Arabia, it will be in a very difficult situation. But Saudi Arabia will never be able to abandon the strategic union with the United States because of the Palestinians, due to the transfer of the embassy to Jerusalem. There will be loud conversations, screams, screams, scandals, but Saudi-American relations (I'm talking about Saudi Arabia because this is a really real large ally of the United States in the region) always stumbled upon a lot of problems that had to be overcome-and they were overcome. Moreover, no one has ever called into question the essence and significance of the strategic alliance between these two countries.
Palestinian activists in Ramalla carry the portraits of Donald Trump. Evening December 6, 2017
-That is, states such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, someone else will certainly respond to any words of Trump regarding the change in the attitude to Jerusalem, but in reality they influence the foreign policy of the United States, of course, cannot and depend on Washington much more than Washington from them. It turns out that Donald Trump is right in what he does in foreign policy in the Middle East?
- On the one hand, yes, it turns out that he is right. But how much is this correctness? Sometimes a major politician commits some acts, believing that they are true, but in fact destroys the space in which he lives. In the end, it suddenly turns out that it was his decision that led to the emergence of a new reality. Is it worth allowing such actions, making such decisions? In my opinion, this is unreasonable. It is better to weigh all the consequences from the very beginning and make a decision pleasing to you, but in the forms as softened as possible, so that your allies are injured as much as possible, says Grigory Kosach .