The work of Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who is investigating the case of Russia's influence on the US elections, is yielding its first results. As follows from the published testimonies of people close to President Donald Trump, the special prosecutor is gradually collecting evidence (albeit indirect so far) if not of "collusion" with Moscow or "treason", then of the president's obstruction of justice - such an accusation, in particular, appeared in the list of crimes imputed to Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton. In Article 2, paragraph 4 of the US Constitution, which describes the conditions for launching the impeachment procedure of the president, obstruction of justice is not directly mentioned (unlike treason and bribery), but is implied among "other high crimes".

Of the four people named in the Mueller investigation, documents about which were released in early December and late October, the ones who pose the greatest potential threat to Trump's presidency are Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos, both foreign policy advisers to the campaign.

Why is Flynn dangerous? According to the published statement of guilt, Flynn confirmed that he lied when testifying to FBI agents on January 24, 2017, stating that in December 2016 he did not ask then-Russian Ambassador to the United States Sergey Kislyak not to escalate the situation after the introduction of new sanctions against Russia by the Barack Obama administration. It is known that he contacted Kislyak on the instructions of Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and adviser. Flynn made a deal with the justice system by agreeing to cooperate with the investigation, which "includes, but is not limited to , fully answering questions , passing a polygraph, participating in undercover operations, etc."

What makes Papadopoulos dangerous? His guilty plea states that he was arrested by the FBI in July 2017 for lying to agents about his contacts with Russian citizens, including Russian Foreign Ministry officials. Among the topics he discussed with them were providing the Trump campaign with dirt on Hillary Clinton and a possible meeting between Trump or his campaign staff and Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin. Papadopoulos coordinated his actions with various Trump campaign staffers on multiple occasions.

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Strictly legally, Flynn and Papadopoulos's admission of guilt and their plea deal mean that they will not be tried, which means that charges will likely be brought against those they testified against in exchange for an easier fate for themselves - people who are even closer to Trump. But it is important for the investigation to establish what exactly Trump himself knew about this: if his personal involvement is not confirmed and proven, the risks of impeachment are significantly reduced. In the mid-1980s, the so-called "Irangate" flared up, also known as "Iran-Contra": employees of the Ronald Reagan administration, as the investigation showed, secretly from Congress and bypassing the embargo, sold weapons to Iran, for which they were convicted. The investigators were unable to prove Reagan's participation in the decision-making, although the prospects of impeachment were actively discussed in the press.

Less dangerous to the case are former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his business partner Richard Gates, who have been charged with laundering money obtained in Ukraine, tax evasion, and violating FARA requirements for registering foreign agents. The indictment does not mention Trump by name at all – but Manafort, as campaign chairman, must know a lot about who, in addition to Kushner, Flynn and Papadopoulos may have coordinated their contacts with Moscow with, and what instructions they received.

Why do some members of Trump's team make a deal with the investigation, while others decide to test their fate in court? Perhaps those who cooperate with the investigation do not hope for a presidential pardon. Formally, the president's right is not limited in any way, but politically it is problematic for Trump: a pardon can be interpreted as an attempt by the president to shield his "accomplices."

Trump's reaction to the investigation appears mixed. On the one hand, Trump had the misfortune to write on his personal Twitter account : "I was forced to fire General Flynn because he lied to the Vice President [Mike Pence] and the FBI." On the other hand, Trump asked then-FBI Director James Comey to cut Flynn some slack. The question of Comey's motive for firing him is "critical" to the question of Trump's obstruction of justice, Nick Ackerman, assistant special counsel for Watergate, told Newsweek: it means Trump knew about Flynn's crime, asked the investigation for leniency, and when he was refused, fired the FBI director. Trying to get his boss out of harm's way, the White House said the tweet about Flynn was written by Trump's personal lawyer John Dowd, but Trump has repeatedly stated that, unlike many other politicians who have handed over their accounts to press secretaries, he personally tweets.

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Who's next? The American press suggests that it's Kushner's turn. If that happens, Trump's nerves may give out and he may try to fire Special Counsel Mueller. Technically, it's not easy. Attorney General Jeff Sessions has already recused himself from the "Russian interference" case, and the next in line is his deputy Rod Rosenstein, who actually appointed Mueller as special prosecutor after Comey was fired and gave him the authority to investigate not only ties with Russia, but also "any issues that have arisen or may arise during the investigation." However, Rosenstein has repeatedly stated that he will not carry out such an order from Trump. In a similar situation, at the height of Watergate, Nixon staged the "Saturday Night Massacre," ordering Attorney General Elliott Richardson and then his deputy William Ruckelshaus to fire Special Counsel Archibald Cox. They refused to carry out their boss's order and resigned. Only the third-ranking Justice Department official, Robert Bork, agreed to fire Cox.

Mueller has a reputation as an impartial investigator: As FBI director, he investigated the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the Boston Marathon bombings on April 13, 2013. He succeeded Comey as head of the Russia investigation.

However, an investigation alone is not enough to impeach Trump. This is a political procedure: the House of Representatives acts as a prosecutor, bringing charges, and the Senate acts as a court, considering the case and delivering a verdict. The Republicans have a majority in both chambers – to start the procedure, the Democrats first need to get a majority in at least the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, which will be held in November 2018. Trump needs to work to increase Republican support by implementing his campaign promises – in particular, Congress can adopt Trump’s promised tax reform by the end of the year. Republican donors, the expected beneficiaries of the reform, can additionally fork out money to support the party in the next elections, which allowed them to save billions on taxes.

The Democrats' goal in the election is to gain an additional 24 seats. There is a chance: firstly, statistically, the majority party usually loses votes in midterm elections; secondly, Trump's popularity is currently extremely low. According to a Gallup poll, as of December 1, 2017, only 33% of Americans approve of Trump's performance as president - the lowest figure among other presidents in their first year in charge.

Who poses the greatest threat to Trump's presidency?