Translated material
Mikhail Dmitriev: "Everything is different, the financial system would have expected a complete collapse"
Three years ago, under the curtain of 2014, a currency crisis erupted in the country. On Monday, December 15, the Central Bank made a forecast for oil price - as it seemed extremely gloomy. According to the regulator, Barrell until the end of 2017 had to fluctuate around $ 60. After such a publication, the ruble lost 8% of the cost in one day. In order to avoid further collapse of the CB currency at an emergency night meeting, he raised a key rate at once at 6.5 percentage points (up to 17%). Nevertheless, the decision did not change the course of events, and the day came in history as a “black Tuesday”: the course continued to weaken until it failed to a mark of 80 rubles for an American dollar and 100 rubles per euro. Subsequently, the ruble was slightly strengthened, and its course stabilized. However, the feeling of collapse and panic moods, which reached the climax in December, had been served for a long time the emotional background of the Russian economy. However, the most pessimistic scenarios were not implemented in the end, and the country relatively easily came out of the state of the “perfect storm”, the economist Mikhail Dmitriev , the head of the Center for Strategic Development, and now the President of the New Economic Growth Partnership, is sure.
-I propose to return three years ago, in December 2014. I specially re -read your interviews for that period. I remembered the quote: “Any crisis does not repeat the previous one, always the worst - what if we don’t reach the bottom, and if we achieve, we will not be able to get out of there.” Obviously, you were confused. Or just did not know what to prepare for?
“No one knew this then.” But we were lucky, and lucky in two respects at once. Firstly, the rebound of oil prices, let it in two stages, turned out to be quite fast. There were serious fears that shale oil would finally bring down the market and the equilibrium price of a barrel could fall below $ 40. After all, slate does not require large investments, the main costs - for drilling wells and flasking, splitting the shale layers. But this story did not take into account the rapid growth of the costs of the shale companies, since against the background of the boat everything - from the salaries of professionals to the equipment - sharply risen in price. When the drop in oil prices began, the costs, on the contrary, began to decrease quickly, while mining companies reduced the activity of drilling wells. But at what level did the costs retained shale prey in the cost -effective zone? This was unclear what created serious uncertainty in the market. After all, if the shale companies were able to remain profitable at the oil price of $ 40 and even lower, our economy would experience significantly more serious shocks. And most importantly, we would have received these problems for a long time.
- I remember very well the popular conversations of Russian oil workers about the possibility of working at $ 25 per barrel. They mentally prepared for the worst.
- Do not forget that Russia was helped by a sharp devaluation. The real current costs of companies, according to their leaders, were literally $ 4–5 per barrel. And potentially it paid for the prey for any world conjuncture.
- But it was already impossible to say the same about the Russian budget.
- It is forbidden. If oil stabilization in the area of $ 20–25, we would now have a fundamentally different situation in the country. This would be a shock immersion in the non -resource economy. The scenario of a long structural recession would work, when you do not even have a currency to support the stable payment balance and meet the basic imports. The country would have lost all attractiveness for investment. The financial system would be in a state of almost complete collapse. In general, the future of our economy would be under a very serious issue.
- The shale industry was so unpredictable that no one could say anything definite about the supply of its strength?
- There were many research and various kinds of predictions. I remember then I tracked the forecasts of the stability of the work of companies in the shale market. And the forecasts were constantly falling: at first it was believed that $ 60 per barrel would kill this business, then 50, 40, $ 30. The question arose: where is the bottom? It might not have been. Nevertheless, it turned out that shale oil at such low world prices could not remain competitive for a long time. In addition, the excessive reinforcement of mining companies affected. Bankruptcy began, and even those who remained afloat became difficult to attract funding to increase volumes. Today, however, the volumes of browning of shale wells again reach record levels, but we already see the limit of costs, below which the viability of the shale model is extremely doubtful. And this level is definitely not $ 20 per barrel. This is what creates certainty. For example, I have just received oil forecasts of one of the large international banks, where in the next three years prices are waiting in the range of $ 45–55.
- And for Russia, do you think this is a comfortable price?
- It is quite based on the fact that we have a three -year budget of a overpass for $ 40 per barrel. So it will be childless at this level. And at prices above $ 40, even currency reserves will be replenished. That is, investors in such conditions do not see factors for destabilizing the economy - threats of hyperinflation, mass bankruptcy in the financial market, the next weakening of the currency, loss of reserves, etc. That is, all that in the recent past was happening in neighboring Ukraine due to irresponsible financial policy.
- Sorry, I want to hear this once again: after everything that happened in 2014, after all the unfulfilled forecasts made a year earlier by the same international banks, you believe that oil prices will no longer lower below Russia permissible for Russia and that in general everyone agrees with this. I understand you correctly?
- I just say that now there would be about the same certainty. What is the bottom below which oil prices, if they fall, are very short. There really is a consensus. Oil prices are now relatively high. This causes revival in the Russian market, gives rise to optimism, an increase in investment. Many investors in the first half of the year defrost previously mute or defined investment projects. The growth of imports of machinery and equipment accelerated to two -digit values, and this is a sure sign of revival. Restorative growth began. But this would not have happened, show the shale companies another, more flexible production economy.
- Well, the rise in price of oil was the first reason why the Russian economy in the end did not go downhill. And the second?
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