War of demand

The Russian military operation in Syria was effective due to the lack of restrictions on the number of victims among the civilians. But the war could not be stopped

Photo: vebus.ru

Russian generals once again demonstrated as abilities for strategic foresight, so unprecedented efficiency. Vladimir Putin did not have time to announce that he intends to head the country again, as the chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov said: “To date, there are no territories controlled by ISIS*in Syria.” And the president himself told reporters that two hours before he told Russian citizens about the fateful decision to head them again, the Minister of Defense Shoigu informed him of the successful completion of hostilities in the Middle Eastern country: “Operations on the East and Western coast of the Euphrates were completed by the complete defeat of the terrorists. Naturally, there may still be separate foci of resistance, but in general, combat work at this stage, in this territory, is completed, I repeat, the full defeat of the terrorists. ”

Break through the blockade

Thus, the most successful operation of the Russian army over the past half a century ends in the same way as it began - by the strong -willed decision of the head of the country. The main advantage of this operation is that it, like repairs, cannot be stopped, but you can finish at any time. Two years ago, Moscow climbed into the civil war that had come since 2011. By that time, in addition to the Ladan of the Assad regime and numerous groups of the armed opposition, the terrorists from ISIS*, who had grabbed a significant piece of the Syrian and Iraqi territory and built their savage “caliphate”*, and fought by terrorists, and who headed the US, which headed the United States, had already participated. No significant Russian interests were visible in Syria. Well, if you do not seriously consider the sincere and completely fundamental readiness of Vladimir Putin to support any dictator who is trying to overthrow his own people (in the Kremlin it is customary to consider revolutions exclusively as a result of the CIA and Mi-6 conspiracy).

The main goal of the entire operation was to force Western leaders, first of all, to the American president to talk with Putin, who had undergone humiliating obstruction at the G-20 meeting in Australian Brisbane. And it succeeded. When Russian planes were already deployed in Syria, Obama reluctantly was forced to meet with Vladimir Putin. Washington willy, Washington had to negotiate with Moscow at least about the coordination of the flights of his pilots. Otherwise, there was a danger of confrontation between the armed forces of the two nuclear powers in the Syrian sky. The Americans lost. Vladimir Putin could again feel like a world leader. True, in two years the effect of Russian threats has decreased significantly. At least at the next meeting of the G-20, which was held in Vietnam, the American president did not meet with the Russian colleague.

The success of the operation was facilitated by the fact that the Kremlin freed the Russian military from any restrictions due to possible losses among the civilian population. The probability of such losses is one of the main, if not the most important, problems for the Western military planning any operation

However, the side result of the operation, and in fact, its military unit - turned out to be much more successful. For two years, Russian aerospace forces brought down hundreds of tons of bombs to the “enemies” of Assad: they were attributed to both ISIS forces* and “Jebhat al-Nusra”*, as well as detachments of armed opposition. As a result of Russian air strikes, ISIS* has lost control of a significant territory, which allowed Moscow to announce its complete victory.

The success of the operation was facilitated by the fact that the Kremlin freed the Russian military from any restrictions due to possible losses among the civilian population. I must say that the probability of such losses is one of the main, if not the most important, problems for the Western military planning any operation. Over the past half a century, the value of human life has been incredibly increased in public consciousness. Each bombing mistake instantly turns into a serious problem for the military. The death of civilians is immediately reported by the world media. However, taking advantage of the fact that the combat areas were inaccessible to authoritative observers, Moscow calmly ignored all the accusations of the deaths of women and children. Like, all these are the luminaries of Western ill -wishers.

Su-24 bomber. Its production was supposed to be completed in the mid-1990s. Photo: rusvesna.su

At the same time, the Russian military department proposed to take their word. According to official figures, about 100 thousand missile and bomb strikes were inflicted. The main severity of the operation fell on the very old Su-24 bombers, the production of which was supposed to be completed in the mid-1990s. For the most part, they used uncontrollable bombs that were intended for disposal. Representatives of the military department argued that the old bombers are equipped with magic sights, allowing to destroy the terrorists exclusively to destroy the term of ammunition. At some points, the Russian military department went even further when the exact number of terrorists destroyed in a particular attack that arrived from Russia. Rather, one can believe the data of human rights organizations, who claimed that at least 5,000 peaceful citizens were killed as a result of Russian attacks.

The main severity of the operation fell on the very old Su-24 bombers, the production of which was supposed to be completed in the mid-1990s. For the most part, they used uncontrollable bombs that were intended for disposal

But, one way or another, with the help of massive missile and bombing, it was possible to suppress the resistance of ISIS prohibited in Russia*. The Russian military (and at the same time the Kremlin) appealed their inferiority complex. In the end, they managed to organize something similar to what the Americans carried out in 1999 during the operation against Yugoslavia and in 2002 in Iraq. At the same time, the Russian operation is good in that, unlike hostilities that led the United States, it can be completed exactly at the moment when the owner of the Kremlin wants it. And now this moment has come. In a situation of foreign policy disaster, Putin needed at least some proof of his successes in the international arena. And domestic television, there is no doubt, will turn the Syrian operation into a triumph. At least in the eyes of Russians.

Everything is just beginning

In fact, this victory, to put it mildly, is doubtful. According to various estimates, from three to twenty thousand ISIS fighters remain in Syria. It is significant that literally the day after the Kremlin announced a complete victory over ISIS* in Syria, the forces of the international coalition attacked at least four terrorist groups. Having lost the territory that needs to be protected, ISIS fighters* received complete freedom of maneuver. And this immediately turned out when, after the loud statements of the Russian military about the complete victory, the terrorists units suddenly counterattacked government troops in the provinces of Deir Ez-Zor and Ham. They still hold small territories there and, as the media reports, hastily create an underground network for guerrilla warfare. In addition, right now, in the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Homs and Damascus, the Jebhat al-Nusra detachments have intensified. So, most likely, Syria did not end the civil war, but returned to its "partisan" stage.

Having lost the territory that needs to be protected, the terrorists received complete freedom of maneuver. And this immediately turned out when, after the loud statements of the Russian military about the complete victory, the troops of the terrorists suddenly counterattacked government troops in the provinces of Deir Ez-Zor and Ham

Further predicting is not so difficult. ISIS* and Jebhat al-Nusra, prohibited in Russia, will continue to resist. The inhabitants of Russia, as, indeed, both the USA and other states, should hope that the fighters of these terrorist organizations do not return to their native places once abandoned. At one time, the Russian special services in the North Caucasus contributed to the fact that the young radicals went from there to Syria. The worst that the Chekists could assume is that the Islamists, having gained combat experience, will return home. If this happens, then a real wave of terrorist attacks should be expected. “Unfortunately, we are forced to admit that the loss of the IG* of the territory did not affect their ability to initiate terrorist attacks,” said Laura Shiyao, director of the US National Counter -Terrorism Center, speaking in the Senate, “ISIS* Opporters to find supporters through social networks remain unprecedented.” It is already no more than nor less, as about the creation of a certain “cyber -hiphate”.

The worst that the Chekists could assume is that the Islamists, having gained combat experience, will return home. If this happens, then you should expect a real wave of terrorist attacks

As for the situation in Syria itself, the country is currently divided between the Assad regime, the Kurds and the units of the motley opposition. Russia trusts that it will be able to establish a dialogue between forces that pursue directly opposite goals. The Congress of the Syrian people, which were going to gather in Sochi in November, was postponed at least until February, and it is not known whether it will be gathering at all. Just the delegation of the Assad regime interrupted negotiations with the opposition, which were in Geneva under the auspices of the UN. The reasons are clear: the opposition leaders consider the maximum concession that they are negotiating with the dictatorial regime.

As for Damascus, the Assad inspired by the Russian military successes already declares its intention to take part in the upcoming elections. However, the line of Russian diplomacy is obvious - at every outbreak of hostilities, Moscow will confidently blame Washington of warming up terrorists and now uses them in order to pluck a peaceful settlement. It is the Ministry of Defense that now insists that American planes do not have the right to act in the airspace of Syria.

In fact, the Syrian epic will last a very long time. But as soon as it turns out that the only tool of Russia is military power, the Kremlin’s influence on the participants in the civil war will decisively decrease. Until the very moment that the fighting flashes again, and Moscow will need a new victorious war ...

* ISIS, IG, “Jebhat al-Nusra”, “Caliphate”-organizations prohibited in the Russian Federation as terrorist