The Russian group was deployed in Syria in September 2015, and since then Putin has twice announced its reduction / Press Service of the President of Russia

Vladimir Putin visited the Russian Khmeimim airbase in Syria on Monday, where after a meeting with President Bashar al-Assad he announced the defeat of the “most combat-ready terrorist group” with the help of the Russian Armed Forces and ordered the Defense Ministry to begin withdrawing troops from Syria. But Russia still has two bases there (Khmeimim and Tartus for the Navy), the president added: “And if the terrorists raise their heads again, we will strike them with blows they have never seen before.” Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces Viktor Surovikin said that 25 aircraft and helicopters, a special forces unit, a hospital, and military police will be the first to leave Syria.

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Putin announced the withdrawal of Russian military forces from Syria

Politics / Video

The Russian group was deployed in Syria in September 2015, and since then Putin has twice announced its reduction. But this time the situation is really different: the most dangerous terrorist group ISIS (banned in Russia) has been largely defeated, which will allow us to reduce our group by 30-50%, says a person close to the Russian Defense Ministry. At the same time, in the near future, the Syrian army will continue to operate with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces to finish off the remnants of ISIS both in eastern Syria and in the Idlib de-escalation zone, where three-way clashes between government troops, the HTS group (created on the basis of the banned Jabhat al-Nusra) and ISIS continue. Disagreements among political groups of the Syrian opposition, contradictions between the Kurds and Turkey are delaying the political process, but this is not so dangerous when the most dangerous group has been defeated, the source believes.

The intensity of the operation is decreasing both on the part of Russia and the international coalition, but the statement about the complete defeat of ISIS is hasty, says Alexander Shumilin from the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences: "It is by no means eliminated, but will continue to exist in a focal state. Putin's statement is important exclusively in the electoral context." Moscow is betting on a diplomatic solution and sending a signal to Assad that he must be more flexible, the expert believes. But the contradictions between Russia, Turkey and Iran have not gone away either: for Russia and Turkey, it is the problem of the Kurds, for Russia and Iran, it is the question of Russia's real withdrawal. "Putin wants to leave gracefully, and the Iranians are not going anywhere and consider withdrawal a betrayal," Shumilin sums up.

War with Islamists in Syria could end by end of December

Politics / International Relations

Withdrawal by the end of the term

The announcement of the withdrawal of troops from Syria is timed to coincide with Putin's final press conference on December 14, political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko believes. Completing the operation by the end of Putin's current term is a good contrast to US presidents who were involved in military action: one can recall, in particular, Barack Obama, who promised to end wars, but only added several military conflicts. According to Minchenko, the theme of victory in Syria can be used in the future during Putin's election campaign: he will be able to appear as a winner and a man who has fundamentally renewed the Russian Armed Forces. The operation in Syria has demonstrated a new quality of the Russian army - a low number of losses and a completely different technological level of execution compared to the operation in Afghanistan, the expert explains: "The foreign policy significance should not be underestimated - in the army, almost the entire officer corps has acquired real military experience."

The Syrian issue has potential for a campaign, agrees Lev Gudkov, director of the Levada Center: “It is important for Putin to appear as a peacemaker. People are waiting for this, they do not understand the point of the operation in Syria. There were fears that this would become a second Afghanistan and that Russia could find itself on the brink of a third world war. Therefore, the end of hostilities will be perceived with relief.” According to the Levada Center, about 50% of Russians say that Syria needs to be finished and would approve of the withdrawal of troops, so “this can be considered Putin’s response to such expectations,” the sociologist adds.

The theme of victories and "forced peace" will be used during Putin's campaign along with others, says political scientist Andrei Kolyadin. In the minds of most Russians, the country's successes in the international arena are indisputable: people are absolutely convinced that Russia is pursuing the right policy and achieving high results in it, the expert explains. Kolyadin doubts that the topic of ending the war in Syria will contribute to an increase in turnout: "But from the point of view of creating a favorable information environment, it will undoubtedly be one of the most significant for at least a week. The elections are very short, and what information is filled with each week is very important. I think something else is intended for the following weeks."

Putin flew to Syria and ordered the withdrawal of troops 1 / 9

President Vladimir Putin arrived in Syria on Monday. At the Russian Khmeimim airbase, he was met by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander of the Russian military group Sergei Surovikin, Interfax reports / Press Service of the President of Russia

Putin goes to the elections as a peacemaker