Vladimir Putin is entering the election campaign as a winner and peacemaker, ending the military stage of the conflict in Syria on a victorious note. But his next – this time, it seems, final – statement on the withdrawal of the Russian contingent and congratulations to the military on the victory have a rather symbolic meaning: the civil war continues. The Kremlin will maintain a military presence in Syria to influence Bashar al-Assad, but the military operations of Russian aviation and ground forces will no longer be covered as widely as before on federal television channels - after all, the war is over, we won.

On Monday, Putin announced at the Russian airbase in Khmeimim that he had begun withdrawing Russian troops from Syria. According to the president, the goals of the operation - the defeat of terrorists and the preservation of Syria as an independent state - have been achieved: the troops, the commander-in-chief said, are returning home with victory. Indeed, in more than two years of the Russian operation, the government army and its allies (including American-supported Kurdish units), with Russian support from the air and private military companies on the ground, destroyed the main forces of the Islamic State (IS) banned in Russia and control now most of the territory.

This is not the first time Putin has spoken about the withdrawal of troops (see also the article on page 02) - in fact, this is the third time, but this time more military personnel and military equipment will probably return to Russia than before, believes Arabist Alexey Malashenko. On the one hand, the military has more than once spoken about the complete defeat of the Islamic State and the imminent clearing of Syrian territory from militants, on the other hand, the start of the presidential campaign is about to be announced in Russia and Putin has already announced that he will participate in the elections. It is logical that the moment of declaring victory in Syria was delayed until the unofficial start of the elections, notes political scientist Nikolai Petrov: It was important for Putin to start the campaign with a bang, showing that he defeated the terrorists with a powerful blow, with little bloodshed and on foreign territory.

The Syrian operation was planned to be short-term, but the plans did not come true. Yes, now, after two years of participation of the Russian military in the Syrian conflict, the majority of Russians consider it justified, but fatigue has accumulated from images of a distant war, and constant reports of victory cause ordinary people to misunderstand the meaning of continuing hostilities. According to FOM, the share of those who closely followed the situation in Syria decreased from October 2015 to October 2017 from 30 to 24%, occasionally from 47 to 43%, and the number of those who did not follow increased from 23 to 32%.

Statements of victory and withdrawal of troops do not mean a cessation of hostilities and the actual achievement of the goal set in September 2015 - a total victory against terrorism in the region to protect Russia. The military defeat of IS and a significant part of the Syrian opposition reduces the intensity of the conflict, but does not mean its end. Russia failed to achieve a significant rapprochement of the positions of official Damascus and its opponents on the eve of the National Dialogue Congress, announced but never held in Sochi in November 2017, according to international relations expert Vladimir Frolov. Assad, having gained control over most of the country with the help of Russian aviation, is in no hurry to thank the Kremlin and ignores its demands for a full dialogue with the opposition; Turkey opposes the creation of Kurdish autonomy in the north, Frolov notes. In such a situation, a complete withdrawal of absolutely all Russian forces is unlikely to follow: the withdrawal of part of the aviation and ground forces serving it from the territory of Syria is likely, and special forces and private military companies will most likely remain in Syria - Moscow still needs leverage over Assad.

Reports from the theater of operations must now replace idyllic images of a “return to peaceful life.” Putin’s visit to the Middle East (he went from Syria to Egypt) is intended to demonstrate to ordinary people the stability of Moscow’s presence on the world stage – now in peaceful conditions. It is significant that the official media presents the signing of the agreement on the construction of the Dabaa nuclear power plant as an analogue of the 1958 agreement between the USSR and Egypt on the construction of the Aswan Dam, notes orientalist Leonid Isaev.

When is it time to end the war