Syrian fireworks for Russia

The war in Syria and the inevitable major losses associated with it, obviously, is not yet completed for Russia, despite all the loud statements of President Vladimir Putin and Sergey Shoigu. The Russian Ministry of Defense still stubbornly refutes the information of the Kommersant newspaper, referring to the independent correspondent of Roman Saponkov, on the destruction of seven military aircraft of the Russian Air Force during the shelling of December 31 Khmeimim in Latakia province-although some experts even call the type of weapon that could be used in the attack. Or maybe there was no attack on the base at all - but only negligence and celebration of the New Year.

On January 5, the Russian edition of the Vestnik Mordovia attracted the fact that it turned to military experts, who stated that it was most likely, judging by the reports and photographs, the air base in Khmeimim was fired from the old Soviet self -propelled automatic mortar 2B9 Vasilek , which is still produced in Russia and was supplied to the armies of some countries of the world. This is a small weapon that can be hidden, for example, in a truck shooting artillery mines, lines at a speed of up to 120 shots per minute. In 1994, a special cumulative mine was created for shooting from 2B9 direct fire on military equipment, including armored equipment.

The authors of the publication write that Vasilka was not supplied to Syria for the troops of Bashar Assad, however, to those who attacked the Khmeimim base (if the shelling was at all), these mortars could have entered, for example, from Turkey. It is impossible to intercept the mines "Vasilka" with a caliber of 82 millimeters with the means available to the Russian army. The armies of the NATO Union, on the contrary, have special artillery and laser complexes that can resist shelling from this type of weapon - and the American military, for example, in the zero years were so able to protect their military bases and objects in Iraq from mortar shelling.

Summary automatic smooth -bore mortar 2B9 "Vasille"

Memes of Russian military aircraft, allegedly damaged by the shelling of the Khmeimim air base, on January 4 on his VKontakte page was published by military journalist Roman Saponkov . They can be seen, in particular, the torn tail plumage of one aircraft and a broken fuel tank. Saponkov writes that, according to preliminary data, six Su-24 front-line bombers were damaged, Su-35S fighter, an AN-72 transport, an AN-30 intelligence and Mi-8 helicopter, and adds that three planes have already been repaired. The fate of the rest is unknown.

On Thursday, the Ministry of Defense of Russia on the shelling of mortars of the air base was confirmed on December 31, reporting two dead troops. At the same time, the Ministry of Defense called the "fake" a message about the destruction of aircraft.

On December 11, Khmeimim’s air base was visited by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who announced the withdrawal of the Russian group from Syria there . The Russian bases in the country, however, remain, and the Russian Air Force continues to help the troops of the Syrian president Bashar al -Assad. According to media reports, at least 40 Russian military were killed in Syria alone in Syria.

A military expert, journalist-investigator of the independent analytical group Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) Kirill Mikhailov , argues about all versions of the Hmeimim air base in an interview with Khmeimim.

- Unfortunately, so far neither we nor our colleagues can get fresh satellite pictures of the air base. There is cloud weather in the Syrian coast in the Syrian coast, so it’s difficult to shoot something from space. We will draw conclusions on the basis of those photos that are in our disposal. There, in particular, the Su-24 front-line bomber with the on-board number "29" is visible there. All Russian military aircraft has unique numbers for each aircraft, that is, the Su-24 with the white number "29" in the Russian Air Force-only one. So, we found photos of this Su-24 in 2013 at the Shagol air base in the Chelyabinsk region , from where most of the Su-24 arrived in Syria, at least in 2015. After that, the researcher Joseph Dampsi found a more recent photograph of the same Su-24 with the on-board number "29", or rather, a screenshot from the video report of the RT channel, already at the Khmeimim air base. Indeed, this aircraft, located at this air base, received damage-which means that in fact some part of Russian aircraft suffered there. How serious, whether it can quickly get into operation - it is impossible to install now, because the Russian Ministry of Defense remains silent, in passing recognizing the death of two soldiers. In the worst case, the conclusion is as follows: almost the third of the Russian military fleet remaining in Syria is disabled.

There is cloud weather in the Syrian coast in the Syrian coast, so it’s hard to shoot something out of space

- The fact remains that no weapons available to all, any opponents of Assad are capable of impressing the Khmeimim military airfield from the territory that all these units control. So, we are talking about a pre -planned successful sabotage operation?

- Yes, this is what we suggest. And this is very strange, because any sabotage operation, which is periodically stated by Assad, especially those as a result of which, according to their statements, Russian troops die, usually receive maximum publicity, they always trumpet about it. For example, when Major of the Marine Corps Sergey Bordov was killed in Syria as a result of a guided missile from the American -made TOW in April 2017, this was very widely said. In 2015-2016, several times reported some attempts to fire at Khmeimim air base. Then even the video appeared, but it was only noticeable that the militants shoot towards the air base. But whether they fall into even something and whether they arrive at all-it was unknown and incomprehensible. Of course, some Syrian opposition media already write, citing their sources in the operational headquarters of the rebels in the Idlib province, which, they say, really, such an attack was made. But, since all these statements have already come with a strong delay in the post -fact, it is difficult to judge their reliability.

Russian Su-24, taking off from the Khmeimim airbase. December 2017

It should also be noted that not a single rebel group in Syria may decide to openly declare now that she managed to hit the Russian air base. Because, despite a certain prestige that such a successful operation gives her among the rest of the rebels, it is worth remembering the back of the medal - that the Russian side will begin to apply powerful blows to the territory where this group is located, in its positions and local civilians who are under its protection. We are observed in CIT, in fact, that in early January, in the last three to four days, Russian bombing in the Idlib province became more frequent.

No rebel group in Syria may decide to openly declare now that she managed to hit the Russian air base

- I also heard such a tragicomic version: that no one around considered the incident on the air base, since in Syria, like around the world, December 31, one way or another, celebrated the New Year, despite the war. And the Russian troops, by the way, also noted on this base ...

- The Khmeimim air base is located in the province of Latakia, in its lowland part, where the alavites mainly live, which are the backbone of all Assad supporters . These people are much less religious than their Sunni neighbors, that is, women go there without hijabs, etc. They really celebrate Christmas and New Year, in the western manner and very actively, as can be seen in some videos: fireworks, shooting into the air, there are also many armed detachments of the Prosadovsky militias. Everyone knows that on New Year's Eve in Chechnya, a girl died in the air of an employee of the Russian Guard, who celebrated the New Year. Here they celebrate holidays according to similar traditions. So indeed, if there was no large shelling with explosions of airplanes, as Kommersant describes, but only one or two shells, or mines, fell into some small number of ammunition and several aircraft stored on the basis of ammunition, then, against the background of firecrackers and fireworks, all this could not be noticed at first.

Amateur video celebration of the offensive of the new, 2018 in the province of Latakia:

-Another version: maybe at the Russian air base on New Year's Eve passed, speaking in a simple language, a drunken party and there was no attack at all? And all the damage came from the explosion of its own ammunition? Therefore, the Ministry of Defense behaves so strange?

- I do not exclude such an opportunity! Because, judging by the sources, for example, this was exactly what happened in 2016 at the T4 airbase, or Tias, in the Syrian desert, in the province of Homs , where Russian combat helicopters were based. In the photographs of those times made by correspondents of the Russian state media, for example, ammunition boxes dumped by a mountain next to a helicopter are visible. As the sources said again, the Russian military simply burned the ammunition boxes, which were not completely devastated! As a result, several helicopters exploded! At that time there were good satellite pictures. There were no traces of shelling on them. That is, there were burnt helicopters, but there were no funnels from ruptures in the strip, etc.

-I also drew attention to the fact that in the current photos holes are noticeable in aircraft, but at the same time these aircraft are on an absolutely smooth, even, without any trace of damage and ruptures of the runway.

New Year. People are more or less adopted by Putin's statements that "we defeated everyone"

- And perhaps there was a combination of all of us now mentioned factors. Imagine: New Year. People are more or less adopted by Putin's statements that "we defeated everyone." Even if Russian soldiers actually know that they have not yet defeated everyone, then those whom they won not finally are at a safe distance - as they were told by the authorities. Indeed, back in 2015, the positions of the militants were “pushed” from the air base, as was then thought, to a safe distance. And also, perhaps, the Russians were in vain on their Syrian colleagues. And then there are also ammunition, perhaps they are stored somehow "tirelessly." That is, just measures to store ammunition and/or measures to ensure the safety of airbase on New Year's Eve were observed worse than at the usual time. Or maybe - at the Khmeimim airbase, they are so observed in the usual time.

Russian planes and military personnel at the Khmeimim air base. 2016

Another important point: could those who made this attack know that the Russians and Asadians would celebrate the New Year-and therefore, firstly, they will have weakened security measures and, secondly, the shelling may simply not notice immediately because of the loud fireworks and shooting in the air? Could they specially arrange an attack on December 31? I do not exclude such an opportunity.

- The most important question remains unanswered. Who fired at the Russian air base if we were solemnly told by Vladimir Putin and Sergey Shoigu that the Islamic State terrorist group in Syria is finally defeated?

As such, the Islamic State in the Khmeimim air base has not been since 2014

- As such, the “Islamic state”, despite the fact that the Ministry of Defense and all other sources constantly declared to us, has not been in the Khmeimim air base since 2014. When the “ISIS” attempts to capture this territory were suppressed by other oppositionists of the Assad regime, including the same terrorists from the Jabhat-en-Nusra , who do not tolerate competition. In general, there are a number of different groups there: detachments of a free Syrian army (SSA) , or the so-called 1st and 2nd “coastal Turkoman brigades”. By the way, it was in one of them that Alparslan Chelyk, the notorious killer of the Russian pilot Oleg Peshkov, who was shot down on November 24, 2015, was shot down by the Turkish Air Force and then, when he was descending by parachute, was shot by order of this man himself. Chelyk has now been arrested in Turkey, however, in connection with completely different charges. One way or another, Turkoman detachments continue to be supplied with weapons from Turkey. The question arises: if they attacked Khmeimim-was there any kind of sanction of Ankara for such an event? Some researchers believe that and that such a large -scale and loud operation should have occurred with the knowledge of the Turkish intelligence services.

Fighters of the Free Syrian Army. November 2017

Also, two other radical Islamic terrorist groups that operate in this area, Ahrar al-Sham and Haiata Tahrir al-Sham, are the former Jabhat An-Nusra, are also mentioned. There are a lot of options, in fact! The main thing is that all of them should have access to powerful weapons, to reactive volley systems, and rate of fire mortars. But as we wrote, all weapons walk in Syria with rather bizarre paths. There are huge channels in social networks through which even tanks and infantry fighting vehicles could be bought! And some weapons are simply selected by one group from another - so American assault rifles fell, for example, from a moderate opposition to terrorists. Some weapons are still periodically captured by the rebels in warehouses belonging to the Assad army.

Everyone had reasons to attack Khmeimim airbase

There is another, rather exotic version that can stand behind this attack, if it was: I know that at least in 2015-2016, in addition to the locals, a radical group called "Alnad Al-Caucasus" also acted in Latakia. These are immigrants, first of all, from Chechnya, but also from other Russian republics of the North Caucasus. Everyone, and the first, had reasons to attack Khmeimim air base. Because it is from this airbase that raids are made, during which civilians die. It is from this air base that Russia supports Assad’s troops, in their rather successful offensive in the last year. And everyone wanted to hit this air base for a long time. The same militants of the terrorist "Jebhat al-Nusra" recently published a video, as they say, undermining the Russian column of armored vehicles in a landmine. Then the Ministry of Defense also denied this. In general, someone still had an attack and shelling, most likely, but perhaps we will never recognize their name or name.

- Why do you think the Russian leadership all the time rested on its participation in hostilities just against the Islamic State group prohibited in Russia? Why not say firmly and immediately that in Syria we are fighting with many powerful enemies, and list their names-calls in all these endless military reports and reports, including the media?

Not only jihadists from the "Islamic state" confront Bashar Assada.

- Yes, because the Kremlin is so easier. “Why complicate, in fact? There is an ISIS, and everything is ISIS there, and all we bomb, ISIS. ISIS is doing terrorist attacks in Europe, and we save the whole world from ISIS, as we saved the whole world from Hitler 70 years ago! Watch and admire!” This is a simplified propaganda picture. It is clear that not only jihadists from the "Islamic state" are opposed to Bashar Assad. And of course, not everyone who confronts Assad and at the same time are not ISIS members, such fighters for democracy, "paws" and "fluff", of course! But all this is very difficult, it is for experts in the region and politics and history, for researchers. But this is definitely not that you can feed the viewers as a simple idea: "We are fighting with an absolute evil, and we have almost won it!" - says in an interview with Radio Liberty CIT expert Kirill Mikhailov .