Translated material
Intrigues instead of elections
Although the results of the March vote are a foregone conclusion, the Kremlin has problems. These are predictable difficulties with a turnout and an unexpectedly rapidly growing interest in the candidate from the Communist Party
Photo: Pixabay.com / Imarksm
The next stage of the 2018 campaign is coming to the completion: 10 days are left for the subscriptions and execution of all the documents necessary for registration. After that, the CEC will have another week in order to approve or reject lists of autographs for 15 potential candidates. There are 17 applicants in total, but two are representatives of the Communist Party and the LDPR, Pavel Grudinin and Vladimir Zhirinovsky, have already received registration without subscriptions: this is not required for candidates from parliamentary parties.
On the sidelines, the current presidential campaign is sarcastically called “the most interesting in history”, implying just the opposite: the winner is actually known in advance, all the candidates were clearly carefully selected by the Kremlin, and, as the interlocutors close to the presidential administration say, “everything is done for the main customer so that he is satisfied with the maximum number of positive emotions from his own re -election. But along the way, some difficulties still arise.
What will happen to the turnout
After the State Duma of 2016, which took place at 47.82%recognized as a low, new curator of the domestic political unit, the first deputy head of the administration Sergei Kiriyenko was set to increase the presidency of the presidential election. In the spring, the interlocutors close to the presidential administration said that the meeting “70/70” was discussed at the meetings - so that 70% of voters were voted for Putin with a turnout of 70%, but by the summer they refused it.
Photo: Archive 66.ru
In a single voting day in September 2017, in different regions, they tried different projects to increase turnouts that were not related to the admission to the elections of serious opposition candidates (for example, Evgeny Roizman could not take part in the elections of the Governor of the Sverdlovsk Region). The addresses of polling stations tried to integrate into the dating application "Mamba", they played apartments in the areas themselves, and folk festivities were held next to them. The turnout for the governor’s elections in September eventually fluctuated around all the same 40%. In a number of regions, for example, in Mordovia, the turnout amounted to 71%, but this region has long been an “electoral anomalies” by experts.
According to a closed hundred -poll, one of the large regions, 30% of voters are going to vote in its capital, 40% in the rest of the region. Of those who decided to go to the polls, about 70% will vote for Putin
On March 18, 2018, lottery will not be carried out in the plots. They refused the Kremlin and the idea to arrange regional referendums on any significant issues-for example, to rename the Sverdlovsk region. In a number of regions, they will vote for the improvement of territories or unification of the districts, for young people they will hold selfie contests and the like, entertainment events, and each supporter of Putin has the task - to sanitize the minimum of two people to go to the polls.
At the disposal of the author of the text were the data of a closed sociological survey on a turnout for one large Russian region. According to this survey, 30%of voters are going to vote in the regional capital, 40%of the rest of the region, but of those who decided to go to the polls, about 70%will cast their vote for Putin.
will lead the campaign for the boycott
Elections photo: site.ru
Alexei Navalny announced that he and his supporters would conduct a campaign for the boycott of the elections. Each supporter of Navalny has a task, the opposite of Putin’s supporters to the task: you need to sagate at least two people to the polls. Navalny plans that his supporters on elections day will observe the real turnout in the areas, and if it does not coincide with the official one, it will be possible to declare total falsification of the elections.
The vice-president of the Center for Political Technology Alexei Makarkin calls the campaign for the Boycot of the elections of one of the intrigues of the current presidential campaign. According to Makarkin, there are many elements in this campaign: a boycott, another attempt to create a party, and planned mass shares, and “Batron” with a “candidate against all” Ksenia Sobchak. “By the way, the latter is not profitable for Navalny, as it“ reduces ”his image. Moreover, the parallel campaign will not end on March 18, since its task is not integration into the system, but its scrap, ”adds Makarkin.
Navalny plans that his supporters on the day of elections will observe the real turnout in the areas, and if it does not coincide with the official one, it will be possible to declare total falsification of the election
CAZUS GRUDININA
Pavel Grudinin Photo: YouTube.com
In the very first weeks of the New Year, almost all political scientists are almost written with the Kremlin with the Kremlin, which Pavel Grudinin is bad as a candidate and that he will not succeed. At the same time, plots, exposing Grudinin , began to come out on the state -owned departments. And the prosecutor’s office checks if he has foreign accounts-in the CEC, when registering, allegedly due to the information received about such accounts, a hitch arose. In social networks on this subject they are already joking that a little more and Grudinin will be an element of the American plan of Dulles according to the collapse of Russia.
The interlocutors close to the administration are inclined to interpret what was happening like this: the Kremlin, of course, agreed on Grudinin, although, apparently, at the very last moment, and therefore a hitch arose with the closure of his accounts abroad. At the same time, a request for new faces in politics of the population is such that unexpectedly for all Grudinin, he showed good potential to growth, and the Kremlin does not need to gain too much, so the “black campaign” began. In the early days of January, VTsIOM said that Grudinin was already ahead of Zhirinovsky - from 7% against 4%, but next week the department of Valery Fedorov reported that the ratings of candidates from the Communist Party and the LDPR were equal.
A request for new faces in politics of the population is such that unexpectedly for all Grudinin showed good potential to growth, and the Kremlin does not need to gain too much, so the Black Campaign has begun
“Initially, the main intrigue was the question of who would take second place. Now, after the start of the Kremlin attack on Grudinin, the intrigue has been transformed somewhat and sounds more personified: how much Grudinin will pick up, ”said political scientist Abbas Gallyamov.
While the most intriguing is participating in the Grudinin elections, the head of the political expert group Konstantin Kalachev agrees: “Safe sewage of protest caused incomprehensible fear of a part of the near -political community. The campaign, which is deployed against this candidate, can become for someone from the protest non-communist voters a motive for voting for an ideologically alien candidate. I recall a quote from the film “Office Roman”: “How do you like boots? - Very defiant, I would not take those. “So, good boots, we must take.” The painful reaction of regular propagandists and counter -propagandists to Grudinin becomes indirect confirmation of the rightness of those who believe that it is necessary to go to the elections, ”the expert argues.
Makarkin believes that it is the theme of Grudinin that can be the main one, as it concerns the choice of wide layers of voters. “Whether the entrepreneur will be able to get the whole (well, or almost all) communist electorate. Whether liberal voters will be compatible with the director of the state farm (and a candidate from the Communist Party, of course). How he will respond to unpleasant questions (for example, about Stalin) in a situation where any answer can scare away part of the potential voters. In general, what is the motivation of Grudinin, what he wants: to promote, to claim any position (if so, then where-in the government, in the Moscow region). Or something else. It is clear that the candidate does not count on victory, but the issue of motivation remains significant, ”says Makarkin.
Based on the results of the focus group in one remote region, we can conclude that the campaign against Grudinin is not so stupid, Kalachev adds: “She repels part of the traditional voters of the Communists from him, who, as a result, will most likely prefer Putin, and attracts a non-communist protest electorate that could become a supporter of the idea of boycott.”
Friend of the youth
The “main candidate” - Vladimir Putin - is all right. Last week, his official headquarters announced that the 300 thousand signatures necessary for him as a self -nominated signature were collected, but the collection continues. For example, after this statement of the United Russia headquarters announced a single day of collecting signatures through its public receptions, and this week Putin’s headquarters said that the number of signatures collected in his support exceeded a million.
The interlocutors close to the headquarters say that this time Putin will not publish several programmatic thematic articles in which his election promises will be formulated, as in 2012. But software statements are expected from the message to the Federal Assembly, which is planned at the beginning of February - for the first time the president’s message will coincide with the active part of the election campaign.
On Tatyana's Day, January 25, Putin is expected to visit Kazan and hold a large -scale meeting there with the leaders of informal student organizations - sports teams, KVN players, bloggers
Made to work with youth photos: ruanalytica.ru
A significant emphasis in Putin’s campaign will be made to work with youth, this is especially important against the background of participation in the shares of the same Navalny very young people. Putin’s headquarters includes the head of the Victory Volunteers project, 27-year-old Olga Amelchenkova. On Tatyana's Day, January 25, Putin is expected to visit Kazan and hold a large -scale meeting there with the leaders of informal student organizations - sports teams, KVN players, bloggers, etc. It is expected that at this meeting, Putin promises to support not only official student movements, like trade unions, but also informal circles and clubs, urging university leaders to create all the conditions for this.
Political strategist, ex-deputy plenipotentiary at the Ural Federal District, Andrei Kolyadin, says that the current presidential campaign consists of a number of contours, which partially intersect. “There are lines aimed at maintaining some political tension and involving the electorate in events around the elections. This is the appearance of Sobchak, Grudinin, events around Navalny. As soon as one topic is worked out, there is a transition to another topic. The intrigue around Navalny played her own - and she goes into the shadow, although he tries to stay on the agenda. Then the nomination of Sobchak was discussed. Now Grudinin is being discussed, but, I think, after a while, this topic will be worked out, new topics will appear. The main candidate will still make statements on ideology, politics, economics, which will also be discussed. Another circuit is the events aimed at the turnout itself, a variety of polls, creating a positive atmosphere around the elections, events showing the honesty of the campaign, ”the expert predicts.