Translated material
Andrey Movchan about cryptocurrencies
The current cryptocurrencies are meaningless and ugly, as it should be the first samples. But others will come behind them
They say that the next you are from the topic, the more you want to speak about it. I'll speak out about cryptocurrencies.
The theft of cryptocurrencies, volatility, endless reproduction and transformation, wallets with forgotten passwords, 30%arbitration, weekly transactions, a stream of money from drugs and weapons, fictitious transactions that accelerate the price that are not able to determine what bitcoin is ... this is how the whole new begins. The first mobile phone weighed five kilograms. And it had to be worn as a suitcase; The first cars were a nightmare; The first pistols were easier to throw out and manage with a sword; The first planes did not fly, but jumped 10 meters; Surely the first stone ax made by Australopitics caused only the evil laughter of his fellow tribesmen. It is not a matter of the unpreparedness of the markets or the skepticism of players - the current cryptocurrencies are meaningless and ugly, as it should be the first samples. But others will come for them.
More recently, at the dawn of the 90s, securities appeared in Russia. At first there were a spell, a hoper-invest, a Hermes Foundation; Then MMM, Bashkir gasoline. There was also a stir around them; Their creators were also enriched; They were just as meaningless. But behind them came RAO UES and Gazprom, Russian Eurobonds and GKO (and then OFZ).
Today it is not worth buying cryptocurders who are not wealthy, like MMM tickets, unreliable as the Tu-154 and uncomfortable as a product of the conversion of the Russian defense industry. But this does not mean that in the future (and it usually occurs quickly), more advanced models of crypto-payment systems will not be replaced by today.
The ideology of the new payment means is not by no means the principle of blockchain distribution of data about holders: today it shows that blockchain-churiates is often an illusion, and blockchain-approval is often a mockery. In the end, the data can be taken into account differently, for sure and blockchain, principles will find their place in this series of systems (nevertheless the distributed principle of certificate is an important breakthrough). But the main idea of cryptocurrency is the embodiment of an old mathematical problem about an infinite number of guests in hats.
Imagine this children's task says that an infinitely many (but counting number) guests come to visit you, and each in a hat. They take off their hats and hang on hangers - the first guest - on the first hook, the second - on the second, and so on. Then they have fun at your place, and at this time the thief steals from the hanger N the first hats. How do you make the guests not notice the loss?
The answer is very simple-it is necessary to give the first guest the N+1st hat, the 2nd-N+2nd and so on. Since there are infinitely many guests, each guest will receive his hat. Indeed, the reasoning “from the contrary” reads: we put a guest who did not receive a hat, even if his number was M. But according to our logic, the guest with the number m we give a hat with N + M number, respectively, he got a hat. So - all guests will receive hats.
This is exactly the way new ICOs work, including the one that telegram is being prepared. The company produces its tokens, which will be used as a currency inside its system (once again, it does not matter how they will be taken into account). At the initial placement, the company sells x tokens for y dollars, x tokens find themselves among investors, and the company from the company. The company spends dollars on building payment functionality (well, part of the founding fathers put part in the pocket), and offers to calculate the tokens inside its system. If such calculations are meaningful (that is, in these tokens it is more convenient to pay for something than in dollars), then sellers will put goods in the system and evaluate them in tokens, buyers of these goods will look for tokens on the market for transactions, thus increasing trade, and initially the goods are evaluated in the initial rate of token at the ICO, but since the turnover It grows (after all, tokens are more convenient than dollars in this system, as we assumed), and the number of tokens does not grow, the price of token is in proportion to the needs in the working capital of the system also begins to grow. Understanding this prospect, investors (if they are reasonable) evaluate the prospects of increasing the speed of this system and, if they believe in it, come to the ICO in the calculation that the price of token will rise. They will sell their tokens later - to those who want to trade in this system. They will pay tokens to sellers; Sellers will sell tokens to the next customers - because the turnover is growing! The initial Y dollars fell out of the system, they are no longer needed - their company (like a thief that stole hats) can never return anyone, using a powerful infrastructure; Moreover, the company will now take commissions for transactions within itself (in tokens), and earn on this. Further - more: if the turnover of tokens will grow, there will be other companies that will organize trade for these tokens. The turnover will still increase - the price will still increase. For merchants, prices will not be so important - their business is to buy token and immediately realize it. But investors will gather around and will earn on the growth of the price of token, folding it “in reserve” - and this will still reduce the number of tokens and still strengthen the trend in price growth.
What tokens will this pleasant thing happen to? With those behind which there is a large and growing turnover system, in which the use of token is more convenient than the dollar. The gram can be actually the first of them - inside the telegram ecosystem millions of customers, many from countries with uncomfortable and isolated payment systems, many are involved in cross -border transfer of funds and make cross -border purchases, many use cache and inconvenient means of payment of small services. A gram can become a popular calculation system - that is why ICO Telegram is so re -signed. In line will be Facebook, prepare Google, Amazon, large markets of rights, etc.
Old cryptocurrencies gave the solution to the question "What can you buy for you?" Buyers of this currency themselves - calculate for what and where you want. As a result, stable markets were not formed either for bitcoin or other currencies (except for rumors that it is convenient to pay for drugs and porn with bitcoin and that it is convenient to wash money through it). That is why, despite the hype, hundreds of “old” cryptocurrencies remain a cross between the pyramid with the forex kukhu. New cryptocurrencies will be smarter. Ahead of us is waiting for the world with many payment ecosisytes, in each of which the use of a special token will be meaningfully and justified, and the specifics of taking into account these tokens will correspond to the market in which it is used. In particular, the block chan will most likely be the basis of tokens used in the calculations for rights and property, whose belonging needs additional identification.
So, no matter how you relate to bitcoin (and if you do not want to lose money, you better treat at least carefully), you need to prepare the flower of cryptocurrencies. From the moment when the second generation of these tools comes to the market, a long period of growth in their price will begin (as it was with Gazprom and RAO UES in the 90s). The participants in the correct ICO (and there will, of course, will be incorrect and fraudulent), the first investors, investors of the first years, and of course the creators of payment systems will work a lot.
We must study, we must integrate into this market, we must look for your position and develop an examination.