The development of neural networks will lead to global unemployment

The adviser to the Chairman of the Board of Rusnano for Science, Sergei Kalyuzhny, shared his vision of the future related to the development of technology, predicted unemployment, the emergence of new Luddites and the death of Silicon Electronics.

Sergey Kalyuzhny

Taiga.info represents the opinion of the scientist.

Everyone understands that the speed of technological progress is increasing. The primitive person needed 400 thousand years to accomplish an agrarian revolution. It took 12 thousand years to accompany the industrial revolution. Literally after 100 years, the industrial revolution entered its electric phase. Well, in the 20th century, this process accelerated even more, a bunch of enchanting discoveries happened. The launch of the satellite, the invention of the Internet, the decoding of the human genome, the victory of artificial intelligence in a person in chess and go are completely wonderful achievements. For humanity, the first call was rang, apparently there is something more powerful than our brain. This progress is associated with the progress of computer technology. In 2015, the power of a single computer exceeded the power of the mouse brain. It is said that by 2023 it will exceed the capabilities of the human brain. And in 2045, the computer’s power will exceed the capabilities of the brain of all people living on the planet. By that time, there will be about 9 billion of them. Some futurologists call this a point of singularity, that is, the moment when a person ceases to understand the logic of machines.

Since society requires constant improvement of the computer and increasing their capacities, we are faced with a large challenge. Silicon electronics have its own limit. How can humanity and nanotechnology react to this challenge? I think that in the near future we will see the sunflow of silicon electronics and dawn of computer processes of a different type.

Now we have entered the stage when the fairy tale becomes the past. Everyone knows Russian fairy tales about Emelyu and a carpet. And today these tales are implemented in real life. Auto manufacturers, Google and other IT companies are developing unmanned vehicles, already testing them on public roads. There will be autonomous taxis. The Japanese announced their appearance by 2020. They are serious guys, so I tend to believe them.

What is the main driver of the development of unmanned vehicles? First of all, it is the salvation of human lives. 90% of the fatal accident on Earth occurs due to the fault of drivers. Humanity realized that in the development of automotive infrastructure the weakest link is a person. But in addition to humanitarian messages, the introduction of drones has economic benefits. 50% of the costs of transport campaigns is the salary of drivers that will decrease. With the introduction of unmanned transportation, the time of delivery of goods will decrease, because the car does not need rest, it can go for an arbitrarily long time. In America, this is scrupulously counted. And one of the calculations says that if the introduction of unmanned vehicles occurs by 90%, then the economic effect will be about half -trillion dollars a year. For comparison, our entire GDP is about 1.5 trillion dollars. In addition, unmanned drones will develop very much, which will be used both for military purposes and in peaceful life. We are very close to the fact that unmanned aviation tacks will appear in the world. There are already prototypes in the world. Their implementation is just a matter of time.

But such a stormy technological progress also carries negative aspects. This, of course, is a reduction in jobs, people will replace people. Then the entire infrastructure along the tracks will be destroyed. The urban environment will change, the future does not require so many cars and parking lots. Since the production of cars will decrease, automakers in the future are waiting for a series of bankruptcy. But there are positive points in this. A lot of free time will be released, people will devote more time to themselves. Free time needs to be occupied, therefore, I am sure that the digital content market will increase, we will need to read something and somehow entertain ourselves.

The rapid development of ICT requires the further development of nanotechnologies, the development of computers with neural networks will lead to mass unemployment. Are we ready for this? So far, I think no. And I do not exclude the emergence of new Luddites (people opposing the introduction of machines during the industrial revolution). But we all remember that the predictions of futurologists often do not come true