Igor Bunin: "Eternal" sanctions

Igor Bunin Supporters of anti -Russian sanctions Flickr.com

Anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the West in 2014 and only tightened since then, will never be lifted, said Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. He expressed this opinion in an interview with the newspaper Kommersant , emphasizing that for Russia these restrictions give "the chance to show the best features of our national character."

“ The revival of the national identity of Russia usually leads to the rapid growth of its physical forces. At the level of instinct in the West, nobody never liked this. Sanctions are a reaction of an old obscenity to our strengthening. And they will be removed only if we become weak again, ”Rogozin quoted the publication.

Indeed, so far no restrictions on Russia or the United States and their supporters have been removed to Russia in relation to Russia by the European Union, although a number of European politicians have expressed the opinion that this should have been done. Nevertheless, the United States expanded the range of these restrictions, although the European Union no longer expressed a desire to join these measures.

We add that in early February, Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, expressed the hope that the countries of the West were tired of the policy of sanctions, and their relations with Russia are normalized. “Still, I hope that common sense will prevail, and in the interests of the entire world economy we will move along with all our partners in the right direction,” RIA Novosti quoted the Russian leader as saying.

Vladimir Putin at the Congress of the RSPP / Kremlin.ru

Meanwhile, the United States has been there for some reason for the imposition of sanctions against Russia in addition to the situation in Ukraine and joining Russia Crimea. A new deterioration in relations between Russia and the West began after the US presidential election in 2016. The winner of the Donald Trump elections in the United States itself is perceived by a significant part of the political elites to the supporter of Moscow, who informally maintains contacts with it and almost ready to act against the interests of the United States.

After the election, his team was suspected of relations with Russia, and Moscow - in interfering in the US elections in order to make Trump to the president. In mid -January 2018, American prosecutors even charged to 13 Russian citizens and three organizations; Sanctions in connection with these accusations have not yet been introduced, but Washington promises to introduce them.

Igor Bunin, President of the Center for Political Technology, agreed to comment on the statements of the “eternal” sanctions for “Polit.ru” of the statements of Deputy Prime Minister Rogozin. According to him, in this statement there is a certain share of truth, since if Europe as a whole is configured that under well -known conditions the introduced restrictions to remove, then the United States does not, in fact,.

Igor Bunin

“In a sense, Dmitry Rogozin is right, but this applies only to the United States of America, and not to the whole West. France has its own interests related to Russia; Germany also has its own interests related to Russia. And if we solve the problem of compliance with the Minsk agreements and agree with Ukraine, then, I think, with Germany and France, the problem will be resolved.

As for the United States of America, two mechanisms are acting against the abolition of sanctions here. One is institutional: sanctions were introduced by Congress, and Congress considers Russia not only as an enemy, but also as an ally of the current US President Donald Trump, whom the Democrats do not like, and some of the Republicans do not accept. That is, there is an institutionally fixed barrier here, and this is a very complex mechanism.

In the States, it is very difficult to cancel the imposed sanctions. They can be canceled, but for this you need to go to some system of new relations with the United States, as it was, for example, in 1991. That is, they can be canceled, but it will be a fundamentally different Russia.

And the second problem is no less important than the institutional barrier that exists in the USA: this is a barrier associated with perception. Psychologically, Russia is perceived in the United States as one of its enemies, and they perceive it at the level of leaders, and at the level of society. And this is the factor that forces parliamentarians and senators and the government act in accordance with this logic. They cannot go against public opinion.

So these two factors - constant institutional and the mood of society - do not give hopes for the abolition of sanctions. Of course, we are talking about the fact that the sanctions will remain "forever" in practice - they will be canceled in the medium term. But how many years this medium -term perspective will last, I can’t say, ”Igor Bunin explained.

He clarified that he does not consider such a change in Russia's attitude towards the United States in a near future, which would make possible abolition of sanctions, in any case, within three to five years. “But we cannot talk about the long term,” Igor Bunin added, emphasizing that the situation with the restrictions imposed on Russia by the European Union is completely different.

NATO soldier on teachings / Flickr.com

“I repeat: Europe, in principle, if we go towards, is ready to relieve sanctions. She has its own economic and political interests in this. And with the United States, Europe is now not perfect, this is not an Obama period when the allies were so close.

Now I would describe these relationships as conflict-union. Therefore, if we meet Europe, we will be able to agree on a partial lifting of sanctions. In any case, sanctions not related not to the Crimea, but with Donbass, ”Igor Bunin explained.

See also: Rogozin spoke about the eternal sanctions against Russia, the head of the US Treasury promised new sanctions against Russia, the US Secretary of State announced new sanctions against Russians of the GermanForeign Ministry , called for the gradual relief of sanctions from Russia, Medvedev explained the inability of new sanctions to harm the EU EU Economics Ambassador rejected the introduction of new sanctions against Russia