Where is the money for poverty and missiles

The implementation of the plans of the new Putin six -year -old will require 15-17% of GDP. The government is already discussing options for introducing additional contributions, fees and taxes

Photo: Pixabay / Gerealt

"... !!! Who is he addressing now ?? !! " -In SMS, one federal official wrote to the author of these lines, listening to the 15th message of the President of Russia to the Federal Assembly in the Manege. At that moment, a video was demonstrated on the plasma behind Vladimir Putin, in which the latest Russian ICBR struck the territory of a conditional enemy. This appeal will be remembered not only by the fact that for its sake they violated the constitution ( changing the deadline for its announcement). “No one listened to us. Listen now, ”Putin said from the rostrum and promised a new country by 2024.

We were waiting for the development program

“It should have been a message of development,” says another federal official who is familiar with the preparation of the message of the message: reconfiguration of the budget system, investment in human capital, infrastructure, technology development. “This is necessary for our country, and I am sure that the president understands this,” he emphasizes.

Vladimir Putin really began his speech with the need to “jerk” in improving people's lives. According to him, by 2024 the poverty level will have to halve, to 10 million people, life expectancy - exceed 80 years, pensions to indexed by pace that are ahead of low inflation, and each person should have the opportunity to get a quality education and realize himself. The total costs of healthcare will double, Putin promised. Throughout the country, “step -by -step access to medical institutions” will be restored and implemented by a nationwide program to combat cancer and improve the quality of drinking water in the regions.

“It was supposed to be a message of development,” says a federal official, familiar with the preparation of the message of the message: reconfiguration of the budget system, investment in human capital, infrastructure, technology development

“Russia 2024”, in Putin, should become more effective: the state’s share in the economy will decrease, labor productivity will grow by pace above 5% per year, and the economy will add 3.7–3.8% of GDP per year.

Putin, however, kept silent that similar goals in labor productivity were already fixed in the May Decree in 2012, and the order to “disperse” the economy to world pace was contained according to the results of last year's message. So far, it was not possible to achieve this-in 2017, the economy added only 1.5%, approaching the “ceiling” of potential growth. Consensus prognosis of economists is disappointing: 1.6–1.8% of GDP annually until 2024.

For the new six-year-old Russia should become more technological: by 2024, almost widespread Internet access, the development of technology, artificial intelligence and Big-DATA will provide long-term and sustainable growth. Port capabilities and a unique geographical location will make Russia a global logistics center. The technological nature of the message was emphasized by three huge screens behind Putin’s back, which displayed graphs with statistics and targeted indicators.

Something went wrong

All of the above in the language of economists is called "an increase in investment in human capital and infrastructure." Summarizing what Putin said, in 2019–2024, this will require about 15-17% of GDP. Putting a budget maneuver in the Presidential candidate Putin was proposed by the Center for Strategic Development Alexei Kudrin. It was a gradual increase in state expenditures to education (0.8% of GDP annually), healthcare and infrastructure (by 0.7 and 0.8% of GDP compared to 2017, respectively). These proposals were worked out in the presidential administration, in January the assistant to the head of state Andrei Belousov confirmed. In addition to state funds, officials discussed the creation of instruments and legislative opportunities to attract private funds, two meeting participants say.

In fact, the president in the message approved these proposals. Some theses of the message, for example, in terms of ecology, are already being implemented. “In the first part of the message, the president outlined priorities, and in the second personally I was waiting for the instructions at the expense of what sources we would provide and fulfill them,” says the federal official.

Contrary to expectations, the second part of the message Putin led to a demonstration of the increased military power of Russia. And he turned rather not to deputies and numerous officials and not even to fellow citizens, but to a geopolitical enemy. “After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost 23.8% of the territory, 48.5% of the population, 41% of the gross public product, 39.4% of industrial potential, 44.6% of the military potential in connection with the section of the USSR armed forces between the former union republics,” Putin listed. “The equipment in the Russian army became obsolete, the armed forces themselves were, frankly, in a deplorable state.”

“In the first part of the message, the president outlined priorities, and in the second personally I was waiting for the instructions at the expense of what sources we would provide and fulfill them,” says the federal official

According to the President of Russia, the United States has a sustainable opinion that the revival of the economy, industry, the military-industrial complex and the armed forces to a level that ensures the necessary strategic potential is impossible in the foreseeable historical perspective. “And if so, then there is no point in reckoning with the opinion of Russia.”

After that, Putin for the first time in the history of the announcement of the messages demonstrated five videos with the capabilities of the armed forces. And he summed up, turning to geostrategic opponents: “Everything that you tried to interfere, to prevent, pursuing such a policy, has already happened.”

He promised to "build up this potential, concentrate these opportunities on solving the large -scale problems that are facing the country in the economy, in the social sphere, in infrastructure."

Where do the funds come from

According to the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, it is possible to redistribute current budget expenses in favor of human capital and infrastructure without reducing military expenses. This will increase the rate of economic growth, he says.

It is not supposed to reduce military expenses: in December 2017, Putin had already signed a new state arms program until 2025 with a financing volume of 19 trillion rubles. “On the contrary, they (military expenses) will increase. To increase in those volumes, those limits that are feasible for the state budget, ”Siluanov added later (quote for RBC).

Putin did not reveal the sources of financing the promised “breakthroughs” either in the military or in the socio-economic sphere. One of them can be an increase in growth and increase in investment activity, the federal official is careful: "If it grows, of course." The government has the role of the technical performer of Putin's promises. Help him in this will be a central bank. “I am counting on support from the Bank of Russia here that, making his decisions, realizing the measures of monetary policy, developing financial markets, he will work in contact with the government in the interests of a common goal-creating conditions to increase the rate of economic growth,” the president said.

Now the tools that the Central Bank have can affect inflation, rates, stability of the national currency, but ensuring economic growth is not included in the Mandate of the Central Bank. The government and the State Duma discussed this issue in 2013, but then it was decided to abandon the idea. In fact, this thesis shared responsibility for the growth rate between the Cabinet of Ministers and the Bank of Russia.

Still “on the table” among government financiers-a decrease in insurance premiums (up to 21–22%) and an increase in VAT (from 18%to 22%), the right of regions to cancel the tax on movable property instead of the introduction of trade training; Changing the rate of personal income tax

Another source of resources is tax reform. Putin warned of the need to fix new tax conditions. “We need such fiscal decisions that will ensure the replenishment of the budget, but will not restrain, but stimulate the economy,” he said.

In fact, the post -Martha government will have to go to the third circle of discussion of the “tax circuit”, while there are no finished decisions. Still “on the table” among government financiers-a decrease in insurance premiums (up to 21–22%) and an increase in VAT (from 18%to 22%), the right of regions to cancel the tax on movable property instead of the introduction of trade training; Changing the rate of personal income tax. In the message, phrases slipped, which can be indirectly interpreted as the readiness of the authorities to introduce new fees from citizens. For example, the funds, according to Putin, will be sent “from all sources” to health care, and there may well be nozzles in the compulsory medical insurance system.

Traditionally, according to the results of the message, presidential orders will be issued, to look for money to fulfill which will already be a new government.