The mania of the USSR

The results of Putin's third presidential term on the external circuit: the annexation of Crimea, the war in the Donbass and in Syria, the gap with the West and the new arms race

Photo: Twitter / Natalia Tonkikh

By the end of the third period of Vladimir Putin, the foreign policy of Russia completely turned into a product of his consciousness, based on three dominants.

First: in Soviet times, Russia was called the Soviet Union. And this means that Russia, in principle, can claim everything that its great predecessor owned and disposed of. And if Russia so far declares its rights selectively and accurately, then let the post -Soviet countries say thanks to it for this, and all the rest - let them not perceive such restraint of Russia as a sign of indecision or weakness.

The second: the West is touching Russia and would like to destroy it on occasion, and does not do this only because of the presence of a nuclear miracle-armed for her. But not daring to attack Russia openly, the West, as an arrow, is erasing it all with new sanctions and tries to undermine it from the inside, making absurd accusations and feeding the fifth column.

The third dominant is a direct continuation of the second: Russia, which accounts for a little less than 2% of the global GDP, the USA equal, (with almost 25% of the global GDP), and therefore can and should form a summons of world policy on equal terms with the United States, have its own customers, teach and punish the bad countries, encourage good ones, etc.

Land Collection: Brief Retrospective

The obvious signs of Russia's intentions to take control of the post -Soviet space appeared at the end of the first presidency of Vladimir Putin. They probably still did not think about the expansion of the country to the old borders of the USSR-it was more about the transformation of the CIS countries into reliable satellites of Russia and their unification in the framework of a certain similarity of the new Warsaw Treaty. This looked like the creative development of the long-standing idea of ​​Boris Berezovsky: to establish complete control over any company, it is enough to buy the management of this company. The instrument for implementing this plan was found in the reserves of Soviet policy of the last years of the existence of the USSR. In the new Russian editorial office, he was supported by separatist and, if necessary, pro -Russian sentences of national minorities in the CIS countries. The work boiled.

November 2003. Article 14 of the Federal Law “On Citizenship of the Russian Federation” appears a norm providing for the admission of Russian citizenship of natives of the USSR, who do not have citizenship of the country of their permanent residence. Based on this crafty norm, the mass issuance of Russian passports begins to residents of Transnistria in Moldova and residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.

The Kozak Plan on the federalization of Moldova is very reminiscent of the “federalization” model, which Russia imposes on Ukraine as a recipe for settlement in the Donbass

Then, in November 2003, a plan of resolving the conflict in Transnistria (the so-called “Kozak plan”) appears. The essence of the plan: Moldova becomes an asymmetric federation, where Transnistria and Gagauzia are actually granted a veto to decisions the central government. In addition, Chisinau, according to the “Kozak plan”, agrees to dissolve the national army, trusting to ensure his security of Russia. The President of Moldova, prepared in Moscow, refuses to sign at the very last moment. The Russian federalization plan fails.

Why is it important to recall this today, 15 years later? Yes, because the “Kozak plan” is very reminiscent of the “federalization” model, which Russia imposes on Ukraine as a recipe for the settlement of the situation in the Donbass - in the so -called “individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions”.

The second presidency of Putin is marked by the failure of Russia in the elections of the President of Ukraine in October-December 2004. The Russian protege Viktor Yanukovych loses, and his opponent Viktor Yushchenko not only manages to survive after mysterious poisoning, but also to win with the support of the “Orange Revolution” that flashed in the country. In the yard - January 2005.

For a year, a little before, in November 2003, the Rose Revolution in Georgia takes place, which Mikhail Saakashvili is the new president of which is the new president. An attempt to agree with him on concepts, “returning” the semi -dependent Adjara to the control of Georgia in exchange for its consent to the final department of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, ends in failure. A completely crazy anti-Georgian campaign flashes in Russia-the prototype of the current anti-Ukrainian, and in August 2008 the Russian-Georgian war begins, which Georgia naturally loses: Abkhazia and South Ossetia proclaim independence, which Russia immediately recognizes. To the surprise of many, the dismemberment of the sovereign state leaves Moscow.

Photo: Reuters

Most likely, it was then, in 2008, in rapture by the slight success and impunity of Russia Vladimir Putin, he mentally ripened for what was destined to happen in 2014, already during the third term of Putin, in the “Ukrainian direction”, including the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbass.

Ukraine: implacable conflict

On March 16, 2014 , a referendum on the status of a peninsula is held in Crimea in violation of the Constitution of Ukraine, as a result of which an independent Republic of Crimea is unilaterally proclaimed. Two days later, March 18, the Kremlin signed an agreement on the inclusion of Crimea and Sevastopol in Russia as new entities. A little more than two weeks pass-both in the territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine, fighting begins between the Ukrainian army and detachments of separatists, completely based on the material, technical, organizational and personnel support of Moscow. The strict joint response of the West is in the form of personal (and then sectoral) sanctions, suspension of Russia's membership in the “big eight”, freezing negotiations on visa -free regime with the EU, placing NATO contingents of quick response in Poland and the Baltic countries, etc. - I did not make myself wait ...

Signing the Treaty on the Adoption of the Republic of Crimea to the Russian Federation, Kremlin, Moscow, March 18, 2014 Photo: Kremlin.ru

Aggression against Ukraine is still ongoing, and it makes no sense to describe in detail its ups and downs. It is enough to state that Russia's actions are an example of an absolute violation of all conceivable norms of international law and human morality. This did not end with good for Russia: having annexing Crimea and starting a hybrid war in the Donbass, it entered into an irreconcilable conflict not only and not so much with Ukraine as with the entire civilized world. That is why, despite the formal support of the Kremlin “Minsk-1”*and “Minsk-2” **, compromise options for resolving the conflict, allowing Putin's Russia to remain with their own, that is, to maintain control over the captured territories of Ukraine and restore relations with the West, does not seem to exist.

Syria: War endless

Another foreign policy mark of the Third Putin’s term was the military campaign in Syria, begun on September 30, 2015, just like in accordance with the Putin’s thought that Russia can and should form a summons of world policy, have its own customers, etc. The reasons for military intervention were called different: these are the struggle against ISIS ***, and the war with all the existing terrorists “there” (in Syria, in the Middle East) so that they would not begin it “here” (in Russia), and Syria as a state. Over the past two and a half years, Putin three times -in March and December 2016 and in December 2017-announced the successful completion of the Russian Military Mission in Syria and the withdrawal of troops. Nevertheless, Russia is still fighting there. Basically, of course, with the enemies of Bashar al -Assad, among whom Igilovites occasionally come across ***. But judging by the fact that the terrorists, despite the victorious relations of the department of Sergei Shoigu, are still not transferred, and Bashar Assada cannot be restored even over half the territory of the country, where, in addition, Turkey and Iran are actively promoting their interests in Syria, Russia got bogged down capital. And this is another, after the Ukrainian, foreign policy impasse, in which the country was obsessed with the mania of the USSR.

Photo: Twitter / Russian Ministry of Defense

Speaking in the arena, Putin made the impression of a person who is holy that the weapon of the court day, which, of course, is nuclear, can be adapted for the needs of current policy

Nuclear weapons: dangerous rhetoric

On March 1, 2018, Putin performed in the Manege with a two -hour message to the Federal Assembly, in which he devoted 40 minutes to the story (with video supervision) about the new strategic weapons systems that make Russia invulnerable and invincible: this is the Sarmat missile system, and underwater drones, and cruise missiles with nuclear energy installations, and aircraft installations, and aviation missiles The Dagger missile system, laser and hypersonic weapons - in general, Russia has a nuclear shield, as Putin announced, and feels great. What was more in this enchanting idea - bluff, shocking or truth - it is difficult to say, but it probably pleased the other side: now “our American partners” are getting a good reason to demand the same toys for themselves. And, most likely, they will receive these toys, which, in turn, will delight their “Russian partners”. The arms race will turn out like in good old days. With the same predictable result.

Message of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to the Federal Assembly Photo: Kremlin.ru

But the main question is still different. Speaking in the arena, Putin made the impression of a person who is holy that the weapon of the court day , which, of course, is nuclear, can be adapted for the needs of current policy. That the one who possesses them will dictate his will to everyone and everyone in any conflict. You, they say, have not listened before, so listen now. Make how we are Velim, and not at eating nuclear dust. Of course, we ourselves will die, but you will not live. We can say: both laughter and sin. And you can recall: even Soviet Secretary Generals were wary of such rhetoric.

Allies, even nominal, the cat cried. Belarus? So, after all, she is not ready, say, to support Moscow in a conflict around Ukraine

Russia is equal to Putin

By the way, in his message to the Federal Assembly, Putin promised to use nuclear weapons to protect Russia and its allies. Who are these allies, then the journalists asked the press secretary of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova. There was no answer.

But is it true, who is now in Russia in the allies? Enemies, which are commonly called "partners", are full. Neutralov, who are not friends and not enemies, but - less. And the allies, even nominal, the cat cried. Belarus? So, after all, she is not ready, say, to support Moscow in a conflict around Ukraine. And on the joint military exercises, the West-2107 in September last year Lukashenko never appeared next to Putin.

In the process of collecting lands, Russia quarreled with the whole world, for a long time, if not forever, lost Ukraine, put new semi-criminal quasi states to her neck, all these “DPR-LNR”, with which he now does not know what to do. And to top it all troubles, she earned a monstrous international reputation for herself, and such that even the USSR had better. And then to say, in the USSR there were still large villains in power, and in Putin Russia-more and more small crooks. On occasion, of course, they are also capable of any atrocity, but more often come across fraud, lies and fraud-either with counterfeit urine, then with cocaine centers, then with fake accounts in social networks ... As a result, no matter what happens in the world of a bad thing, everyone subconsciously suspect Russia.

The reason for these misfortunes is obvious: Russia of our days is really equal to Putin. And therefore is doomed to the role of a world outcast living behind a fence of sanctions under the protection of his nuclear shield. Which, alas, is not able to protect her from himself.

* A document signed on September 5, 2014 in Minsk, which provided, in particular, a ceasefire in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine

** Agreement signed in February 2015 by the heads of Germany, France, Ukraine, Russia in the format of the Norman Four with a contact group consisting of representatives of Ukraine, Russia, OSCE and unrecognized Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics

*** ISIS, IG, The Islamic State - an organization banned in Russia as a terrorist