What's up with Navalny?

To stay on the federal agenda during the elections, the oppositionist will have to take risks

On the eve of March 18, Alexei Navalny and his supporters face a difficult challenge. Presidential elections do not arouse much enthusiasm among citizens, which means that, unlike the elections to the Duma in 2011, they will be difficult to use to expand the protest audience. Moreover, if by the summer of last year it seemed that Navalny's ability to mobilize the street was an almost insoluble problem for the authorities on the eve of uncontested elections, today the position of the oppositionist does not look so good. Navalny was predictably isolated from participation in the official presidential campaign and, therefore, from access to television. At the same time, the authorities skillfully combine the stick (in the form of forceful pressure on activists that has unfolded throughout the country, especially in St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad) and the carrot - in the form of a pleasant and legal opportunity to vote for the "candidate against all" Ksenia Sobchak. To confirm his ambitions, Navalny now needs to act more actively within the framework of the electoral agenda than any of the official presidential candidates.

On March 13, Navalny published on his blog the scandalous results of an experiment related to the new voting system "on a convenient site", which replaced absentee ballots.

Within half an hour, activist Ilya Pakhomov filled out documents for voting at three polling stations at the MFC. In theory, such unscrupulous actions of the voter should be suppressed by officials, and Pakhomov will only be able to vote in one polling station. However, Navalny argues that the CEC does not have a tool to control the movement of voters between polling stations, as well as the relevant legislation - the territorial commissions simply do not have time to find out in real time that they have such a nomadic voter. The abolition of absentee ballots was initially seen as a measure aimed at increasing turnout. According to experts, however, 5 million registered in the new system through the MFC or the public services portal will not have a dramatic impact on turnout - some of these voters were going to vote anyway. But the hole Navalny discovered will present a problem for the CEC, even if Pamfilova manages to explain that everything is working perfectly. Any turnout data can now be written off to the "supercarousel". Taking into account the fact that after the obvious falsifications in the parliamentary elections in the fall of 2016, none of the officials was punished, this whole situation could lead to a “floating turnout”. That is, despite all the technological innovations, it will be possible to simply draw it the old fashioned way.

Armed with the trump card of preparing massive falsifications and recruiting thousands of observers for the elections, Navalny is obviously preparing a series of street actions in parallel.

The Moscow mayor's office said it had received an application to hold a "voter strike on Tverskaya" on March 18, election day. Officials said the rally would be denied because political campaigning is prohibited by law on election day. On the air of "Echo of Moscow" on Wednesday, Alexei Navalny said that no actions were planned for the 18th, they were "still thinking" about March 19th. Some of Navalny's associates, meanwhile, are under administrative arrest, including the head of the headquarters, Leonid Volkov. A series of new arrests is underway in St. Petersburg, Murmansk and Pskov.

The most dramatic events unfolded in Kaliningrad. There, the police raided Navalny's headquarters and allegedly found a pack of ballot papers "with signs of forgery" intended for the March 18 elections in the toilet. It seems that this is how a new technology is being tested, which is being built around the now fashionable topic of “election interference”. And if the police insist on their version, this may be the reason for the criminal prosecution of the activists. After the police, unidentified people in civilian clothes came to the headquarters and said that the lease of the premises was over. Obviously, the pressure on activists in the last days before the elections will increase.

Be that as it may, Navalny again, as he did six years ago during the elections to the Duma, managed to offer his supporters a clear tactic. The political algorithm, according to the oppositionist, this time is to publicly, a few days before the elections, announce on social networks that they will not vote and at the same time, at least in some cases, they are ready to observe the elections. Such an approach, apparently, should give a sense of political participation and at the same time free from the rules proposed by the Kremlin.

In this sense, Navalny's supporters stand out against the general background of politicized Russian citizens - they understand what to do.

The alternative mobilization proposed by Navalny raises two questions on the eve of March 18. First, will the politician succeed in confirming his participation in federal politics, regardless of the opinion of the Kremlin and the CEC on this matter? The only opportunity for Navalny to act now is connected with the bright street, media and legal reaction of his supporters to the election results. And secondly, how aggressive will the actions of the authorities aimed at stopping civil protest be? On the night of March 19, one part of the electorate will be taken to the streets to celebrate, and the other part, having lost its candidate, will try to spoil this holiday.