They didn’t see growth behind the rockets

Explanatory note to the Kremlin press service

The press secretary of the head of state, Dmitry Peskov, reproached journalists for commenting on President Vladimir Putin's Address to the Federal Assembly: “It is wrong to perceive this as some kind of militaristic statement. It is also wrong to perceive this as the main part of the President's Address to the Federal Assembly. And he urged to pay attention to the first part of the Address, which is devoted to a technological breakthrough, the socio-economic development of the country.

I agree with him. Of course, the question is interesting: is the new weapon that was shown on the screens unique, or is our military-industrial complex (MIC), together with the Ministry of Defense, wishful thinking? We know that our technologies, alas, are far from the world level. Let experts analyze - they are still left over from Soviet times. By and large, even a superweapon is not so important. Moreover, we have always had priority funding for the military-industrial complex. But even it may one day dry up if science, technology, production, in a word, the economy, do not develop. Here they come up with the replacement of oil and gas with some kind of renewable energy sources (RES) - and where will we get the money?

Therefore, talking about the further development of the country is a hundred times more important. On which I certainly agree with the Kremlin spokesman.

The Address, in particular, states: it is necessary to develop the economy of a new technological generation; in two years to put in order at least half of the roads; in ten years to bring the share of civilian products in the military-industrial complex to at least 33%; introduce mechanisms for sustainable financing of high-tech medical care. And in general: “Already at the turn of 2019–2020, achieve economic growth rates higher than world ones, which means building up Russia’s position in the global economy.”

Why did analysts, commentators, journalists pay so little attention to these most important moments of the Message? First of all, because journalists, if they are professionally fit and professionally honest, are obliged to argue, substantiate judgments and reflections. The house is built from the foundation, crown by crown, starting from the bottom; stairs, rung by rung. In order to talk about the next stage of development, we must rely on previous achievements and analyze omissions.

In 2012, the task was set to increase labor productivity by 50% over the next 6 years. This is the cornerstone of development. As Lenin wrote 100 years ago: "Labor productivity is, in the last analysis, the most important thing, the most important thing for the victory of the new social system." We take the annual collections of Rosstat "Russia in Figures", count by year. For five years (data for 2017 are not yet available), the annual growth in labor productivity is 0.52%. In statistics, this is called "within the margin of error".

In 2012, it was planned to "create and modernize 25 million high-performance jobs". A grandiose scale: we have the number of working citizens - 71 million. Has the plan been completed? We don't know. Judging by the zero growth in labor productivity, “high-performance jobs” have not yet been created.

In 2012, we were promised that by 2018 real wages would increase by 40-50%. “Real wages” is “purchasing power”, a term close to the term “real incomes of the population”, although these words are not used in the May 2012 presidential decrees. We take the annual collections of Rosstat "Russia in Figures", count by year. Over five years (data for 2017 are not yet available), real incomes of the population fell by 1%.

In 2012, it was declared: "According to our estimates, in the next two or three years, Russia will become one of the five largest economies in the world." At that time, it ranked 9th in the world in terms of total gross domestic product (GDP). Now it's 13th. But total GDP does not fully reflect reality. Indeed, it is strange to compare Russia and South Korea, which is three times smaller in population and 1379 times smaller in territory. (By the way, South Korea is two points higher than us in the overall world ranking.) The real picture is given by the volume of GDP per capita, both in terms of purchasing power and nominal. In 2013, Russia ranked 48th in terms of GDP per capita in terms of purchasing power parity, and 41st in terms of nominal GDP per capita. In 2017 - 55th and 72nd places, respectively.

That is, since 2002, from the previous reporting period, the country's economy has been steadily going down.

And if we recall the plan of 1999 - "to catch up with Spain within 15 years", the plan of 2003 - "to at least double the country's gross domestic product in a decade", then we can assume why journalists now evaded discussion and responses to new programs of socio-economic development. Perhaps they do not believe much, they are already tired.

But fatigue is no excuse. Work is work. And it must be fulfilled. We need to write and talk about it. In what it is impossible not to agree with the opinion of the Kremlin.

Sergei Baimukhametov,
journalist