His own successor

Will Putin leave in 2024

Photo: Pixabay / avilarchik6956

Finally, we received the official status: Freedom House qualified Russia as a lack of free country, assigning the same category of Russian media. The democracy index reached the mark of 6.57 on a seven -bill scale, where 7 is the worst of the possible options, further than all, standing from democratic development (7 in North Korea, 1 - for example, in Sweden). It is not necessary to doubt that over the next six years, the Putin regime will bring Russia to the “seven”.

In today's conversations, the upcoming six years seem to not exist - everyone was discussing 2024 and specific circumstances of the departure/inappropriate of Vladimir Putin from power. The retirement age of the population of Russia does not increase, but there is every chance to see a completely canceled pension bar for the head of the Russian state, which from the constitutional authority of the President can turn into lifelong Ayatollah, a patriarch, a crowned national leader. And the president will play the role of CEO, chief executive director, and there will be a technical director-Prime Minister.

However, to determine the specific contours of the future model of succession or preservation of power Putin will hardly become the day after the inauguration. Six years - a huge term. A million reasons and factors can affect its decision, not to mention the fact that there is such a subject of history as Russian citizens, who, as a rule, are excluded from the analysis, depriving subjectivity. In addition, in order for the transit-2024 model to work, the solution, whatever it may be, must be declared as later as possible. So that the "bird yard" does not recognize the leader with a lame duck. Even if Putin dwells on a specific successor, burning it with charisma ahead of time by premature purpose, for example, for the post of prime minister, is unreasonable.

It will not be a person to replace Putin, but a generation. But there are several problems here

Eternal life

This is, as in a joke:

- I decided to live forever.

- Well, and how?

- So far it turns out.

In principle, the dictators of the past who left their posts only forward their feet did. Do we not know this: “The delegates of the congress to get up! Bend the Politburo! ” As the Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krasthev insightfully noted in his column in The New York Times, the Chinese chairman of SI sets the fashion for eternal reign - already in new political circumstances, after the world survived the last wave of the transition of many countries to democracy. Prepare Receps Erdogan and Vladimir Putin. Everyone has a chance to survive their personal "death of Stalin." Or Franco. Or Salazara.

We all ask ourselves: when will the changes begin? History shows that in autocratic modes, changes often begin only when an autocrat leaves. Prior to this, they are either palliative or imitational, or completely absent. Liberals in such systems are assigned either the role of a “smart Jew under the governor”, ​​or modernizers at Kaudillo Francisco Franco - Navarro Rubio as Maxim Oreshkin, Alberto Ulyastres as Anton Siluanov, Manuel Frag - well, say, Sergey Kiriyenko. (Female analogue Elvira Nabiullina is impossible to find in Catholic Francoist Spain).

Krastev has another theory: not a person, but a generation will come to replace Putin. But there are several problems here.

Hereditary state capitalism is the model that Putin’s “Kuma” would prefer the state by inheritance as property

"Capitalism of sons"

Yes, in search of a model of self-survival and safety, Putin can prefer to his “kumam” and “friends” younger, less corrupt, and most importantly, technocratic representatives of the generation of 40-, 50-, or even 30-year-olds. The old elite can be gradually sent to different places: who is not a pension, whom to prison, but to whom to dress with “golden parachutes” in the form of an honorary but symbolic position like a special representative of the president for cultural relations with extraterrestrial civilizations. (Still, the current regime is very vegetarian-Stalin, appointing People's Commissars and Deputy Department at the age of 30+, simply shot their predecessors). But due to the fact that no one is going to touch the political foundations of the system, as well as to remove the state from the economy, the efficiency of technocrats, even if they work like robots 24 hours a day, will be completely small. No jerks and breakthroughs - at best, run in place.

Hereditary state capitalism is the model that Putin’s “kuma” would prefer, passing the state by inheritance as property. The younger Patrushevs, Ivanovs, Bortnikovs and other offspring of master's families could well establish “capitalism of sons”. If this is the generation that is a collective successor, Putin will not object.

In addition, if we think that this generation by definition is more liberal than fathers and grandfathers, then we are very mistaken. “Putin’s generation” or, as the representatives of The Economist called it, Puteens, that is, teenagers who grew up under Vladimir Vladimirovich and found the right to vote by 2018, are very different, among them there are many opponents of the current regime. But among them there are passive conformists and young people indocated by Putin. If they come to power, it will be a Putin regime without Putin.

No transit to democracy is provided. In addition, by the time of the final solution of the problem-2024, the old guard of liberal liberals will be so discredited by its ineffective cooperation with the regime and to such an extent that they can be picked up by the transition to democracy and carry the burden of transit on their politically atrophied shoulders. In addition, a new generation of young lions will grow, very similar to Holen and healthy encaveders of the oldest years, who made a career, walking along the corpses of associates and enemies, and they will have very serious political ambitions. Well, where in such circumstances to go to Putin? Who will ensure the reliable effect of the political insurance policy?

We'll have to end his career as an autocrat. And most likely, to rule forever surrounded by sons of "kumov"

Putin as a successor

The successor, in order to become a successor, should be a figure that Putin would trust as himself. And to whom does he trust how to himself? To yourself.

So it turns out that Putin himself should become Putin's successor. But as in any pack, the leader does not have the right to make a mistake. Otherwise, the "dad", which turned into a "grandfather", will begin to gradually displace on the side of the road.

So, it’s better to find a successor. The same as Putin for Yeltsin was with the task of ensuring personal and political security to the previous president and his family.

This work is not easy - the formation of a succession model in an authoritarian mode. In democracies, such procedures are much easier. And there are no problems of personal safety.

But now it’s too late to build democracy. They will not understand. We'll have to end his career as an autocrat. And, most likely, to rule forever surrounded by the sons of “kumov”.

* Author - head of the programs of the Moscow Center of Carnegie, permanent columnist NT

The author’s opinion may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial office