Putin is fantastically stupid!

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Lilia Shevtsova very cool scientifically lays everything on the shelves.
"The Putin corporation drove itself into the trap. The Kremlin not only came into conflict with the most developed civilization and with a part of Russian society, which requires a change. The Kremlin began to undermine the survival mechanism of the state system, which allowed the Russian class to survive due to its integration in the West, simultaneously providing Russia with a financial and technological resource. It was necessary to work very much in order to make it impossible - both changes and changes and changes and changes and changes and changes and changes and changes and changes and changes. status quo! "

The desire of those who have power to preserve it naturally even in developed democracies. For personalist boards, the extension of power into infinity is a problem not of the habit or ambitions of their leaders, but a guarantee of their life. But sometimes the reproduction of personal power turns into destructive consequences not only for the object of rule, but also for the public administration system.

In the name of the recovery of Vladimir Putin as president, the Kremlin is forced to undermine the basic principles of the life of the Russian state. The ruling corporation, which subjugated the autocracy, tries to survive, increasing its degradation and provoking chaos and lawlessness. Perhaps we see a sign of the despair of the Kremlin team, which has exhausted the previous arguments, or, on the contrary, its self -confidence (everything will cost!) Or its inadequacy and inability to calculate the consequences of their actions. Be that as it may, the Kremlin dismantles three principles that guarantee the functioning of the state: legitimacy of power; the balance of power in the relations of Russia with the outside world; The principle of compliance with the rules and agreements within the country and outside it.

Of course, the Kremlin understands the need for legitimation on the part of society, that is, recognition of power by the people and willingness to obey it. Indeed, otherwise it will be necessary to rule through repressions and it is not clear to what extent the society will agree with this. But the whole point is that the legitimation of power through plebiscite in the absence of a choice is short -lived - especially for a country that has ceased to be sealed, for a country that begins to grumble deafly. Therefore, Vladimir Putin had to look for an additional source of support, pushing Russia in wartime-creating a myth of an external threat and offering himself to the country as a leader-defender of the homeland. This fact itself indicates that the legitimation of Putin's leadership through the image of the "collector of Russian lands" and the use of the annexation of Crimea as a mobilizing idea exhaust itself.

Plebiscite-worldly legitimization of the reign of Vladimir Putin can have two consequences. Firstly, the preservation of power through the manipulation of the electoral process (and not for the first time) discredits the electoral mechanism of the formation of power. It is not necessary for a great imagination to conclude how much another way remains society to change power when it becomes unbearable.

Secondly, the survival of the political regime, through the transfer of the country into a military track, contradicts the needs of the state, interested in integrating into the world system, not only for the needs of the economy, but also to withhold the status of sovereign for Russia. How can you be a power without dialogue with leading world players? Yes, the president had been trying to “not aggravate” for a couple of years, offering the West to return to the Fighting Status Quo, which, however, required the liberal democracies of the adoption of the Kremlin rules of the game. As Putin himself admitted, the Kremlin did not hear. But so many times it was necessary to swallow humiliation - and an increase in sanctions, and a doping scandal, and the anti -Russian consolidation of the United States, and the destruction of Russian mercenaries in Syria.

The approaching elections demanded from Putin to offer Russia convincing justifications to preserve power: either a victory in a clash with the West, or "Protection of the Motherland." As soon as the West did not want to agree with the Russian vision of the world order and even pretend that he was looking for a compromise, the Kremlin had to choose a second scenario. Putin was forced to put on the terminator mask and shock the world with his “missile manifesto”, apparently hoping that the faint of heart would return to the game of gusts. But do they really believe that the West will agree to save the Kremlin’s reputation by loss of its own? The transformation of Russia into a “besieged fortress” will inevitably have a short -term effect. The elite, integrated into Western life, is unlikely to consider a seductive proposal to live behind a serf moat. It is doubtful that society is ready for real self -sacrifice in the name of a new war with the West. Meanwhile, the legitimation, pumped up by militarism and hatred of the world around him, instantly crumbles when people are faced with the inability of the authorities to protect their life and the life of their children. Not NATO and not Western machinations, but the events in Volokolamsk and the tragedy in Kemerovo became a blow to the new presidency, demonstrating the cynicism and inhumanity of the Russian authorities.

Another innovation is a rejection of the principle of balance of power in world politics. If you follow this principle, then Russia's power and economic potential does not give it the right to the role of a great power and an equal member of the world "concert". Not being ready to reduce the status, the Russian authorities replaced the principle of balance of forces with readiness to escalate risks and blackmail the threat of beating the windows in order to obtain the desired result. This tactic can bring short -term successes (as in Syria), but threatens a deafening strategic defeat. It is unlikely that in modern times Russia was in isolation, like today, when even faithful allies would shy away from it. More recently, Super -Leoyle Nursultan Nazarbayev went to establish a dialogue in Washington - he found time! And Alexander Lukashenko has long been looking at Europe and collaborates with Kyiv. How to claim the role of an attraction if your own galaxy is falling apart?

Finally, another invention of the Kremlin strategists is the requirement to recognize the right to freely interpret the rules and agreements both within the country and on the international stage. However, within the country we have long been living in the Darwin world, when the rules are discarded, and obligations (including from the state) became an anachronism: there are neither guarantees of property, nor guarantees of freedom, nor security guarantees. So in foreign policy, the Kremlin decided to play the role of an anarchist, destroying the taboo and declaring his understanding of what sovereignty, territorial integrity, non -interference, democracy are at the same time claiming a new interpretation of international treaties. Not finding other justifications to maintain power, the Kremlin offers an axiom: the more fearless you destroy the rules and frighten the world, the higher your legitimation! The Kremlin’s use of a nuclear horror story suggests that its resource of persuasion and other means of peaceful argument is almost exhausted.

It is not clear, however, this is what: is the ruling corporation hoping that the elite and society agree to play with the West in the “Russian roulette”? Or believes that the West will retreat and take Putin's hand extended? So far, reality says that the Kremlin was mistaken, hoping for the weakness of Western democracies. The intimidation strategy turned out to be an effective means of revitalizing the faded tone of the West and its consolidation on an anti -Russian basis. Let the Western machine turn slowly, but it has already bristled. . Masos expulsion of Russian diplomats from Western countries in solidarity with Great Britain, accusing Moscow of a “gas attack” on its territory, is a warning that the patience of the Western capitals has been exhausted. To hope that the West will agree to play with Moscow in a game that will nourish the pride of her leader and at the same time feed Russian Kleptocracy? What a naivety!

Putin's corporation drove itself into the trap. The Kremlin not only came into conflict with the most developed civilization and with a part of Russian society requiring changes. The Kremlin began to undermine the survival mechanism of the state system, which allowed the Russian class to survive the Russian class due to its integration in the West, while providing Russia with a financial and technological resource. It was necessary to try very hard to make it impossible-both changes and status quo!

Lilia Shevtsova - political expert