Caribbean crisis 2.0

In the Syrian conflict, Russia and the United States approached a dangerous line, behind which is their direct military clash with unpredictable consequences

The UN Council of Security Council after a chemical attack in Syria, April 9, 2018 photo : un.org

The theory that the past in the modern world is doomed to be repeated, but events are taking place at an accelerated pace. Political scientists and military analysts with sadness did not have time to agree with the obvious fact of the onset of the new Cold War, the world immediately was on the verge of the Caribbean crisis 2.0. After the information about the fact that from a helicopter of the Syrian government forces to the inhabitants of the city of the Duma, near Damascus, a barrel was dropped either with chlorine, or Zarin, the US president announced his intention to punish Assad. At the same time, Donald Trump emphasized the responsibility of Russia: “President Putin, Russia and Iran are responsible for the support of Assada-living,” he wrote on Twitter. The head of the White House said that he would make a decision no later than the evening of Tuesday (obviously, according to Washington time). And he had already held a meeting with the highest ranks of the Pentagon. Thus, the countdown went on his watch.

War on the threshold

Experts disagree on what can become the goals of an American attack. Some talk about industrial facilities and laboratories, where, as the Americans suspect, they could make chemical weapons. Others suspect that government buildings in Damascus will be the goals of the attack. Finally, the third suspect that even the Khmeimim air base may be the object of attack, where the Russian aviation group is located. It should be borne in mind that back in mid -March, the chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov promised the Americans “response measures of both missiles and carriers that will use them”, if the life of Russian troops in Syria is threatened. “We have repeatedly warned the American side about the possible very negative consequences of the possible use of weapons against the legitimate Syrian government, and especially if the use of this weapon, God forbid, will affect our military, who are legally in Syria,” said the Russian Basil at the UN. It turns out that Moscow considers its military as a live shield to cover the Assad regime.

The locomotive of the war seems to have already accelerated. After such shells, Trump cannot but hit. Earlier, speaking at a meeting of the UN Security Council in Syria, US Permanent Representative, Nikki Haley, stated that Washington would in any case respond to a chemical attack, no matter what decision was made

At the same time, Moscow specifically interpreted Trump's requirements to investigate a chemical attack. “When they require an investigation of honest, immediate - we are only for. But when this investigation is packed in the need to come to a given point, and a given point - “Assad did it with the support of Vladimir Putin,” it doesn’t work out a serious conversation, ”said the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He noted that both Russian military specialists and representatives of the Syrian red crescent visited the incident. “They did not find any traces of the use of chlorine or other chemicals against civilians there,” said the head of the foreign policy. I must say that his words are seriously depreciated by the fact that the Russian-Syrian investigation certainly has his own “given point”. Indeed, the day before, the head of the Russian Center for the Reconciliation of the warring parties, Major General Yuri Yevtushenko announced the readiness to “send Russian specialists of radiation, chemical and biological protection for data collection, which will confirm the attacked nature of the West's statements”. Only when the situation was heated already to the limit, Moscow and Damascus turned to the organization to prohibit chemical weapons with a proposal to conduct an investigation on the spot. Lavrov even promised to ensure the safety of inspectors by the forces of the Russian military police.

But the locomotive of the war seems to have already accelerated. After such shells, Trump cannot but hit. Earlier, speaking at a meeting of the UN Security Council for Syria, US Permanent Representative, Nikki Haley, stated that Washington would in any case respond to a chemical attack, no matter what decision was made.

We reached the edge

Moscow and Washington were again on the verge of direct military conflict. The question is only about the scale of the attack. From the point of view of maintaining international security, an ideal, “vegetarian” would be ideal, an option similar to the fact that he was elected Washington a year ago when the Ash Shayrat was hit by cruise missiles at the Syrian air base. Then the Americans warned Moscow in advance, our military left the airfield. At the same time, Russian air defense systems either did not try, or could not intercept the “tomahaws”. Although, when placing S-400 complexes in Syria, representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense made many boastful statements that they actually introduce an unmanned zone over Syria. Let us pay tribute to Vladimir Putin. A year ago (contrary to threats), the Kremlin managed to maintain composure and put up with humiliation, not even trying to give a military response to an American attack. Everything was limited to the "formidable" Mids invectings. Now you can only pray that last year’s script is chosen in Washington, and in Moscow it is accepted.

The danger increases repeatedly if the “carriers” of American cruise missiles follow from Moscow. With multiple American superiority, Moscow has little chance of winning a regular war. This means that very soon there will be a temptation to threaten the use of nuclear weapons

Because the alternative looks completely monstrous. If the American military plan a massive blow similar to, for example, what was inflicted on Baghdad in 2003, then, according to the Pentagon rules, the enemy’s air defense systems should be destroyed. And these air defense systems inevitably include the S-400 complexes placed by Russia, as well as the system of the near and medium interception of Buk and the shell. It is unlikely that the first blow will apply aviation (although strategic bombers are deployed both in Qatar and Saudi Arabia). Therefore, cruise missiles will be launched from surface ships and submarines of the 6th fleet. It is reported, in particular, on the nomination of the Donald Cook missile destroyer, equipped with 50 “tomahaws” (this is approximately a third of the annual production of cruise missiles by Russia). It is very doubtful that with such a scenario, destroying enemy air defense systems, Americans will seer the goals, avoiding attacking Russian positions. A direct military clash, which the military and the United States was afraid to admit in February , after the defeat of the column of mercenaries, is now becoming very likely.

The danger increases repeatedly if the “carriers” of American cruise missiles follow from Moscow. It is clear that with multiple American superiority (it is provided by the aircraft carriers of the 6th fleet, strategic aviation, bases in Crete, Cyprus, Naples) Moscow has little chance of winning in a normal war. Alas, this means that very soon there will be a temptation to threaten the use of nuclear weapons ... Here it is, the new Caribbean crisis, the postmodern era. The only thing that inspires a Tolik (very small) optimism is the hope of the rationality of the military, who perfectly understand what will follow after the orders are given. Between the head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov and the chairman of the United Committee of the Chiefs of Staff, Joseph Dunford, there are working relations, they regularly communicate on the phone. It remains to rely on the fact that the military will get excerpts and they will agree on at least some rules.

Two and a half years ago, the Kremlin began surgery in Syria, the purpose of which was to exit the international isolation caused by the annexation of Crimea and the secret war in the Donbass. The Kremlin wanted to force the West to talk with him. But the model of behavior has not changed. As a result, Russia and the United States approached the dangerous line.