Nanai boys missile games

The confrontation wheel between Russia and the West made another complete revolution. And what in the end?

Everything became even worse than recently. Security has noticeably diminished. Trust has evaporated almost drying. The design of the coordination of interests and the search for ways of cooperation between Russia and the West, which with such difficulty and perseverance built more than thirty years, is falling apart before our eyes.

But they seriously talked about the war - not only cold (in its second edition there are fewer doubts), but also about quite hot, to the likelihood of which, according to many politicians and experts, we moved almost closely.

Note that even before the last, “nuclear-chemical”, a round of confrontation (with mutual mass expulsions of diplomats, new rigid sanctions, missile blows and propaganda chosen with concomitant fakes and shiely versions of what happened in Salisbury and Duma), many have already stated that relations between Russia and the USA/Russia and the West reached the bottom. Well, how can I not recall the great mockery of Stanislav Hedgehogs Litsa with his “when I reached the bottom, knocked from below”! And after all, there are no guarantees that this knock will stop - the supply of what can still be broken until it is exhausted.

The only question is whether it makes sense to exhaust it. The confrontation wheel spins regularly, but the efficiency of this mechanism is lower than that of the steam locomotive. Someone proved something to someone? Someone and went back? The sanctions and antisanctions of someone bowed someone to something? The world has become safer?

I would venture to assume that the main aspects of the conflict-Russia and the United States-showing each other the seriousness of the intentions, decided to take a break, look around and try to an increasingly dangerous confrontation, threatening the loss of control over it, somewhat rationalize and introduce at least some consistent direction, despite the ongoing fighting scream of hawks on both sides.

Here are the last few facts. Our Sergey Lavrov suddenly stated that the leaders and the military of the Russian Federation and the USA “100%” would not allow the military confrontation of our countries. And he recalled Putin's readiness to meet Trump.

The US presidential adviser John Bolton met with the Russian ambassador Anatoly Antonov and listed “American concern”, the removal of which can lead to improvement of Russian-American relations, which, as he noted, is in the interests of both countries.

The new - "Syrian" - a portion of sanctions by the Americans is still held. The consideration of Russian antisanctions was postponed by the State Duma to mid -May.

It is unlikely that this set of facts is accidental. It seems that the parties felt that they were dangerously approaching the “red line”. Behind it is an uncontrolled development of events, fraught with a fatal error (not important, man -made or random), which can become deadly. Who needs it? Who is ready for collective suicide?

In addition, the main actors of this international drama of their goals at this stage in general achieved. Moreover, so similar that it is difficult to get rid of analogy with the famous "struggle of the Nanai boys." These "boys" are fighting, scaring the whole world, at the same time achieving a joint struggle of useful results for themselves, and the same techniques.

Firstly, they were “measured” in Patsani with their “Sarmatians” and “smart missiles”, demonstrating to each other their power, quality of weapons and determination to cause unacceptable damage. Its extreme point is a guaranteed mutual destruction, which during the Cold War was the main thing, which kept the nuclear disaster. Well, they remembered. Now it's time to insert at least some fuses into the confrontation mechanism. And it is unlikely that anyone who is in their minds will consider this a surrender of positions.

Secondly, they satisfied the appetites of their military and arms manufacturers, justifying their peoples with the need for expensive re-equipment by aggressive machinations of the other side. Here we observe the touching “cooperation” of the parties that ensure uninterrupted supply of military-political “scarecases” of their opponents who are interested in both sides of the ocean in an increase in budget allocations.

Thirdly, they demonstrated their incredible steepness to the internal audiences and the willingness to defend their national interests by any means. Trump must be constantly proved in different ways that “America is above all” is not an election empty, but its main political landmark. That his “Russian dossier” is a fake on a fake, but in fact his rebuff to the presumptuous Russians is much tougher and more effective than that of his democratic predecessor. The confrontation with the United States and the West, which is actually helped by his American “partner”, also brings bonuses to our president. When the “partner” takes on his actions to further strengthen the Russian construct of the “besieged fortress”, which is so convenient for mobilizing the population around the Kremlin’s policy and marginalization of all “pro -Western” opposition, the need for the Putin majority of hybrid actions on Russian borders consolidated. Promotions that have proved their excessive value and unacceptable foreign policy costs.

So, the logic of the current Russian-west exacerbation seems to us as follows. Win the situation to the “red line”, but do not cross it. Demonstrate the seriousness of your intentions and readiness for reconciliation. Scare the world community, each other and their internal opponents on “I can’t” the threat of armed confrontation, and then arrange the next “discharge of tension”. With trading at some specific points of the current agenda and taking out that it is impossible to agree on a bracket - today or never at all. Without a mythical “strategic partnership”, but also without a confrontation slipping out of control. Moreover, without accusations from internal opponents (except the most fiercely stubborn) in betraying national interests and bending before the opponent.

The confrontation method as a way to prepare for negotiations from strong positions is included in the arsenal of both current Russian and American politicians. The last example is the beginning of the dialogue of the United States and North Korea after mutual insults and threats. A demonstration by the Kremlin of the borders of the Russian sphere of interests in the spaces of the former USSR and the return of Russia to a large world policy - from the same category.

In principle, if the Kremlin and the White House do not make deliberately reckless and risky steps, then the suspension or to begin with at least a significant slowdown in the rotation of the confrontation wheel is quite possible. Let's see.