Feast of disobedience

When I learned about the resignation of the former Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan from the post of prime minister of the country, I immediately remembered the congratulation that Vladimir Putin sent to former colleague immediately after his election to the post of head of government. I sent it, although it was not necessary to do this with the protocol - Dmitry Medvedev could congratulate Sargsyan. He sent, although against the backdrop of mass protests could wait at least a few days, see what will happen.

But Putin is not one of those who are waiting. In 2004, Viktor Yanukovych, as you know, congratulated twice - and with the same success as Sargsyan. Of these persistent congratulations - or, rather, wishes to fight for power, no matter what it costs - soon you can make a whole book.

By the way, the Armenian situation of 2018 is similar to the Ukrainian 2004 not only by Putin's congratulations. The very model of the transition to the parliamentary republic is explosive for authoritarianism.

The Ukrainian 2004, as you know, went under the sign of attempts by the then President Leonid Kuchma - who had served, like Sargsyan, two terms and trying to remain in power - to turn the country into a parliamentary republic (probably as a prime minister). Kuchma’s attempts were blocked by both main contenders for power - both the “heir” Yanukovych and the leader of the opposition Yushchenko. And most importantly, the Kremlin did not support them, where they put on Yanukovych and did not want to listen to the explanations that the future president would become a ceremonial figure, and not a full -fledged head of state. Putin needed Yanukovych, not Kuchma.

But Yanukovych’s falsified election turned out to be the first Maidan - in fact, the same “velvet revolution” - and the parliamentary and presidential republic, which very faster exists in Ukraine to this day, with a break for the usurpation of Yanukovych. In fact, Kuchma, with his attempts to change the country's structure, he himself turned the anthill, returned politics to Ukraine, forced the elites to believe that a lot depends on them, and not just on the all -powerful first -person. And the elites, in turn, turned to the people - there was a classic coincidence of interests. Both in Ukraine and in Armenia.

Of course, this does not mean at all that the situation in Armenia will develop along the Ukrainian path. In Ukrainian politics, the main thing was not the opposition of the authoritarianism of democracy, the presidential rule to parliamentarism, Yushchenko - Yanukovych. The main choice of vector was with Russia or with the West. Armenia, which ended up in the trap of Karabakh even before independence, is very difficult to make such a choice.

The unresolved of the Karabakh problem is both the lack of Armenian security guarantees by Azerbaijan and Turkey. And Russia, which has long understood all the advantages of the sponsor of this security and the arsonist of the conflict at the same time, is not the choice of Armenia, but the constant of its existence. Therefore, it is clear why they react much more calmly to the Armenian “velvet revolution” in Moscow than to Ukrainian or Georgian.

But at the same time, Armenian events for Moscow are much more dangerous than Ukrainian. Because they prove: people do not want to put up with neglect of themselves by no means when it comes to choosing a geopolitical vector. Yes, in fact, Moscow itself often imposes this choice. Most people who chanted the Kiev Maidan “Zeka Get!” The least thought about Europe and Putin, and most of all about injustice and Urkagan. And the fact that Putin selflessly supported Urkagan only emphasized the rationality of the road to the west. But this is simply because the Ukrainians had where to get sick not only from Yanukovych, but also from Moscow.

Armenia has nowhere to go by large. How not so long ago there was no place for the inhabitants of Abkhazia and South Ossetia - but they went out into the streets when Moscow tried to impose on them the next Gauliter from the Cheka (and in the end, of course, imposed, breaking through the knee). Yes, all politicians in these self -proclaimed republics were pro -Russian, but people wanted to choose their power themselves. Yourself. Without Putin.

And if such desires appear even where the political situation looks hopeless, and the elite is petrified, then why one day they cannot arise among the Russians themselves? Just choose their own power. Without Putin and his congratulations.