Head without chicken

In animals, the body can function for some time without a head or a head without a body. The second case is the CSR Kudrin and his strategy for the new Putin six -year -old

Photo: Pixabay / Gerealt

During the evolution of animals, the spinal cord first appeared and only then the head. The latter took control of all the life of the body. But if something happens with the head, motor spinal centers can work autonomously for some animals for some time. The body of the legendary rooster Mike lived thus a year and a half. Reverse cases are also possible. The heads of reptiles continue their life without a body, the heads of turtles - even a few days.

A recently published brief version of the Strategic Development Center (CSR) strategy resembles just a product of the brain, which has long been separated from the body, the development of which this very brain is baking. “Having untied it in full,” it “made things”, from which the head could not be washed for a long time and which she was not going to perform. But the head still continues to make plans, as if it still has some kind of control over the body.

Strategy as a sign of autocracy

Plans are built based on the situation at the time before the head separated from the body. In our case, this is approximately 2003-2008. At this time, the state began the expansion of the economy, and then passed to frenzy in foreign policy, quarreling with distant neighbors and grabbing the “poorly lying” pieces of the territory near the neighbors. It was no longer guided by thoughts, but by reflexes: the leadership passed to the spinal brain. Grouping reflexes (in relation to neighboring territories and private national companies), reflex resentment of the Soviet ex-superpowers throughout the world began to determine the international policy and actions of the security forces inside and outside the country. Nothing else restrained them.

However, the head does not know anything about all this and offers the body to develop from the situation, as if it were still in order. While the head and body are still in unity, this strategy would be a good development option. But unity has long been lost. In the world, there are very few countries developing and implementing national development strategies. Most countries do well without it. Holistic strategies would even interfere with them. In countries with political competition, voters who have changed priorities have the opportunity to resign one political force and bring another to power. In such a situation, the strategy adopted by his predecessors would be an extra burden. The development of countries is a complex process in which many actors operate: civil society, business, and authorities of different levels. If these actors have independence, it is impossible to instruct them to develop in a certain direction set from the outside. Therefore, countries with authoritarian regimes are mainly fond of the spelling and implementation of strategies, where development is directed from a single center. In the USSR, such strategies, in fact, were compiled for every five -year plan. In the world, strategies are usually compiled under the solution of any one, specific problem: for example, to solve the problem with the water supply of regions, where the lack of water is a problem, or increase the variety and complexity of exported products. National strategies, that is, the development strategies of the country as a whole, is a rarity.

Nigeria, Ethiopia, Qatar, Gayana, Bahrain, Trinidad and Tobago, Solomon Islands, Tanzania, Kosovo, Ireland, Liberia, Moldova, Swaziland, Tajikistan, Yamaika, Kyrgyzstan - this is the list of countries that have developed development strategies in recent years

Most of all, these documents designed to solve all problems at once are fond of African countries (where the development is just worse) and in large bureaucratic organizations such as the UN. Nigeria, Ethiopia, Qatar, Gayana, Bahrain, Trinidad and Tobago, Solomon Islands, Tanzania, Kosovo, Ireland, Liberia, Moldova, Swaziland, Tajikistan, Yamaika, Kyrgyzstan - this is the list of countries that have developed development strategies in recent years.

Almost in the same years, when Russia was written in Russia, “Strategy-2020”, Nigeria officials were the same. The document prepared by them in 2010-2012 promised that by the indicated deadline, Nigeria would be included in the twenty major economies of the world (now it is the 30th), will become the leader of the entire African continent and a significant player in world economic and political development. The abundance of human and natural (oil) resources with the right policy would really help Nigeria achieve the desired goals. Instead, the country was mired in corruption, nepotism, implemented many costly, but useless projects, strengthened the authoritarian regime. Like the Russian and Nigerian strategy, it is not bad, but it did not try to realize its power.

Plan for all good

There are no particular objections against Strategy 2018–2024. Are you for the country to have more good, or for the victory of everything bad? Of course, for the good. Here is the strategy the same. Need to invest more in education and healthcare, and not in the army and security forces? It's time for a long time. It is not necessary for the state to control everything; Is his task to ensure equal and effective rules of the game? Of course. It is necessary to regulate economic and social activity not on the basis of the instructions “connecting citizens on hand and foot”, but fair and essentially? Well, yes. Everyone needs to give access to high -quality high -tech medical services, and chronically sick - personal medical care, doctors will fill out less papers, and will they have time for patients? It would be nice. By 2024, Russia's freedom will be guaranteed, will the share of planning to open their own business double? Great, but hard to believe.

In departure by 2024, the states from the capital of state banks, whose share in the assets of the banking system now exceeds 2/3, is not believed at all. It is even less believed that in the case of privatization, the largest state-owned banks may not go to friends of the country's political leadership, but to someone else

State players will not be able to work in competitive markets (the share of the state in the economy will drop almost double); will the state have to sell its share in an enterprise working in a competitive market? And here you need to conjure a little with statistics. Markets where state players are actively present cease to be competitive: the regulator state for obvious reasons changes the rules so that they are convenient for “its own”. If such markets (including, for example, banking) are recognized as uncompetitive, then you can fulfill the wishes of the CSR. But in the departure by 2024, the states from the capital of state banks, whose share in the assets of the banking system now exceeds 2/3, is not believed at all. It is even less believed that in the case of privatization, the largest state-owned banks may not go to friends of the country's political leadership, but to someone else. In schools, children will cease to train on standard tests that are useless for their future work, will they study according to individual programs, taking into account their needs and potential? Generally wonderful.

The retirement age in 2034 will reach 63 in women and 65 for men? Well, well. The expected life expectancy of Russian women is 76.7 years, men - 65.9 years. So, men do not live in retirement. This, of course, greatly simplifies the coverage of the pension system. The government killed the funded pension system with his own hands, now the time has come to minimize the obligations of the distribution system. And innovative decisions in this area of ​​the type of introduction of basic income, the strategy, alas, does not even consider. Although Russia has all the prerequisites - oil and gas revenues. Also, the CSR dreams of a technological revolution: two -fold increase in non -piercing exports, the export of health and tourism, the simplification of customs and tax control for foreign companies, and the development of trade relations with neighbors. It is unnecessary to say that so far everything is moving in the opposite direction. About how officials perceive technological innovations, attempts to regulate cryptocurrencies (here in the pioneers of Japan with Australia, not Russia) and prohibit Telegram is best said.

Specific steps

The proposed CSR proposed specific steps. One of them is to create a center for the effectiveness of public administration, which will engage in the implementation of modern government methods. It is likely that such a center will be created. But we already have one such center - an open government, there was a commission on the rationalization of state functions due to their reduction, and the commission on the reform of supervisory. The center will share their sad fate: minor successes in private issues if it is impossible to change the situation as a whole.

To achieve the goal set by the CSR - to reduce the number of officials and the cost of maintaining the state apparatus (up to 1.74% of GDP) - under Putin is unrealistic. On the reform of public administration, not on the implementation of momentary assignments, but to work on priority programs, it is not noticeable for almost 20 years, successes are not noticeable. If there was a serious step, the creation of the Center for the Transformation of the State Corporations could be a serious step, but it is difficult to imagine that the head of such a center will have more power than Miller, Sechin, Kostin and other heads of state corporations together together taken. Therefore, such a center is hardly created. The CSR also proposes to carry out a judicial reform by updating the judicial corps (more about this plan of the CSR - in the February publication of NT. But the court cannot be impartial in some cases and pleasing to others, and the reform that would separate the court from power, the current political regime is extremely disadvantageous, it would be almost harakyrs.

After taking off in 2015-2016, the expenses of the army in 2017 have already returned to their usual value (3.1% of GDP), but this did not allow the expenses of human capital. Further reduction of expenses on the army with current foreign policy is unrealistic

It is unlikely to carry out the proposed CSR of the budget maneuver - an increase in the total expenses for education and healthcare from 6.6% to 8.4% of GDP (mainly due to expenses for education) with reducing expenses on power structures. After taking off in 2015-2016, the expenses of the army in 2017 have already returned to their usual value (3.1% of GDP), but this did not allow the expenses of human capital. Further reduction of expenses on the army with the current foreign policy is unrealistic; At the same time, the total expenses of the federal budget for education and medicine for 2011-2017 fell, according to the calculations of the Development Center, from 1.7% to 1.2% of GDP, and the expenses of regions in real terms remained at an unchanged level.

The proposal to modernize the education system in the March appeal of Putin to the parliament sounded, but the budget will find the required for this, according to the CSR, 4.6 trillion rubles. For 2018–2024, only if oil prices increase. In total, Putin’s measures called by Putin, according to Rosbank assessment, will require 20.4 trillion rubles, and their cost at the current price of oil and invariable costs of security forces will require increasing taxes and reducing social expenses. We have a dry residue: the center of efficiency, of course, can be created. To increase the retirement age is also (and this will be done with a high probability). This judicial reform does not have to wait. All other Putin can use in declarative “May decrees-2”, but they will not have a great influence on the economy and life. You can talk about the competition and improving the role of small business in the economy for a long time, while observing how life moves in the opposite direction: so Soviet people, under Khrushchev and Brezhnev, were approaching communism. It does not follow at all that the work of the CSR is useless. The center has prepared many interesting research . Work on how to carry out judicial reform, why it is necessary to cancel the Soviet norms of currency control, how to simplify customs administration - all this analyst will come in handy when it comes to reforms. But in order to launch them, first we need political reform - the restoration of political competition. Without it, any talk about reforms will remain in the format "The authorities deigned." In the meantime, the head and body continue the unconducted movement in different directions: the head thinks about his own, the body creates what he wants. It would seem that in this state “protection from the fool” turns off: you can make a lot of errors, the system is unbalanced. But this does not happen with us. Political scientist Nikolai Petrov at the recent seminar at the Memorial called this Russian feature “Tarakan's effect”. It is very simple in its organization and resistant to changes in the environment, the tenacious organism. The breakdown of one of the settings of his security does not threaten.

When the whole policy is built on the simplest reflexes and does not obey the instructions of the head, the only thing that remains the last is to compose development strategies, dreaming that someday everything will be different.