Putin's first decree “weighs” 25 trillion rubles

The President issued a May strategic decree, largely based on the ideas of the CSR Kudrin. It was decided to revive the economy in the format of national projects. They need 25 trillion rubles, the government does not yet know where to find them

Photo: Pixabay / Nattanan23

On the day of his inauguration, President Vladimir Putin did not depart from the tradition in the beginning of the past presidential term, and signed a decree on the country's development strategy until 2024. According to the document, after 6 years, Russians should be in another country. It will live longer, it is better to teach and treat, the state will become an assistant and friend of every citizen. The changes will be sharp, such that every Russian will feel them on himself.

How will it be

According to the decree, the life of Russians will improve in the following areas: demography, healthcare, education, housing and urban environment, ecology, roads, labor productivity and employment support, science, culture, support for small and medium -sized enterprises, international cooperation and export. In all these areas, indicators are indicated that should be achieved by 2024. 8 of them coincide with the already implemented design office of the government areas of strategic development.

The decree was mainly based on the proposals of the Center for Strategic Development (CSR) Alexei Kudrin. They will be fulfilled with the help of those who have already preserved the premier post to Dmitry Medvedev mechanisms. The format of "national projects", tested in the middle of the zero, is again on the table. The government will form 12 priority state programs that will fill the next “national projects”. Next, the usual process of writing plans and road maps, their coordination will begin. “There is no reason to think at all that the work will be built differently than in previous years,” says one of the officials who received an invitation to the Cabinet of Ministers.

By 2024, according to the text of the Decree, more than half of Russians should lead a healthy lifestyle, 100% of the children born to be able to go to the nursery, mortality will decrease, and the birth rate, respectively, will increase. Russia should supply medical services not only within the country, but also export at least $ 1 billion per year. By the level of education, Russia should enter the top ten leading countries of the world.

All unauthorized landfills identified on January 1, 2018 must be eliminated, and the quality of drinking water is increased. The number of good regional roads will increase by 50%, and mortality on them will not only decrease to zero (though by 2030), the responsibility of drivers for accidents and the requirements for their preparation will increase. Indicators for export, employment (at least unemployment in Russia is already close to the natural level), labor productivity, innovation and digitalization, of course, will also grow. If it is possible to execute the KPIs laid down in the Decree, then Russia will really be different.

Who will perform

The government led by a premiere candidate Dmitry Medvedev (previously held the posts of the Prime Minister and President of Russia) as if it adopts the best practices of corporate governance: almost each of the strategic directions will be assigned the head in the rank not lower than the deputy prime minister. At a closed meeting with the United Russia faction, Medvedev outlined a new composition of the Cabinet of Ministers. In total, it will have 10 deputy prime ministers, which more resembles not the structure of the government, but the management bodies of a commercial bank, where successful managers are increased to vice presidents.

“Russia of the Future” from the Decree will be built using the previous instruments of state policy: creeping regulation, prohibitions and restrictions, bureaucratic pulling-tolecock with an eye on security forces

Ahead of the appointment of ministers and in the presidential administration. However, two conclusions can already be drawn. First: for the government, management is regulation. So, to achieve indicators of the decree, even those parts of life that were not paid attention to before. All schoolchildren will be calculated, people involved in sports are numbered, and these citizens are digitalized and reliably hidden. Perhaps this is not so bad. But there is a second conclusion, arising directly from the first: experienced statesmen are appointed to the government. There are only two new surnames, Akimov and Borisov, but also those with solid experience on various state storages. All these people in the previous cycle actively implemented what is considered to be a “guard” policy (despite the fact that Putin urged in the inaugural speech to fight guardianship). Their visas stand on the Law of Yarova, who passed the government commission on billing activities. They made a decision on the temporary freezing of pension savings, which eventually became constant. The law on blocking messengers, fulfilling which Roskomnadzor “laid” half of the Russian Internet, could also not have been adopted if the candidates for Deputy Prime Ministers voiced by Medvedev (many of them use Telegram) showed a fundamental position. It is hard to imagine that all these state top managers will change the management style overnight. What is this talking about? The fact that the “Russia of the Future” from the decree will be built using the previous instruments of state policy: creeping regulation, prohibitions and restrictions, bureaucratic pulling with an eye on the security forces.

What is the price

The implementation of the Decree requires significant investments both from the state and from the part of the private business. According to the rude estimates, it will cost 25 trillion rubles. additional costs for 6 years. While they worked out funding, they found only 8 trillion in all directions for the entire period, another federal official says: “This is negligible!” For comparison, the basic scenario only of education reform, which was proposed by the CSR and the Higher School of Economics, requires 4.5 trillion rubles. Healthcare expenses in the message to the Federal Assembly asked to bring to 4% of GDP (about 4 trillion rubles), and about 11 trillion rubles are required for the construction of roads and infrastructure breakthroughs. In other words, already in the first approaches to the decree, it is obvious - not enough.

Additional funds could be reduced by the growth of the economy, but it is not guaranteed. Consensus prognoses of both Russian and world economists speak of the growth of the Russian economy within 1.6–1.8% of GDP annually

We keep a promise in the mind to help the oligarchs who have fallen under the sanctions. The owner of the Renova group Victor Vekselberg asked the government to help $ 5.5 billion, or 330 billion rubles. (through state guarantees and refinancing in state banks). The chairman of JSC “Power Machines” Alexei Mordashov and, who lost the most, the owner of the “Rusal” Oleg Deripaska turned to help. There are requests from other victims, says a federal official. The last time for such large -scale assistance to the government, businessmen appealed to the crisis of 2008-2009. And they got it. “It's hard to assume that it will be different now,” says the federal official.

Additional funds could be reduced by the growth of the economy, but it is not guaranteed. Consensus prognosis of both Russian and world economists speak of the growth of the Russian economy within 1.6–1.8% of GDP annually, while the growth of the global economy is predicted about 4%. This suggests that the gap will only increase. And if the dynamics of oil prices will slow down for some reason (while the barrel costs about $ 74), then the growth can be even less. In the meantime, the ministry responsible for economic development was more practicing in the account: if you calculate the dynamics of economic growth not on all Russians, but only on able -bodied ones, then it is not very different from the average ID.

In order for the economy to grow faster, the state must change management practices, Alexey Kudrin and Sberbank President German Gref repeated earlier in different ways. Medvedev did not reveal the details, which became with their proposals. However, already along the first contour - the state apparatus has become more bulky. Putin chose the former government of Medvedev preferred to balance the bulky structure of the presidential administration. So far, there is no reason to believe that in this cycle it will act differently. So, the overgrown bureaucratic apparatus in the next cycle will control the economy, where the share of the state has grown to 70%. The result of these efforts will really be another Russia. True, not the same as in the decree, but even more regulated and even less free.