Not Saakashvili

That the leader of folk protests Nikol Pashinyan will take as Prime Minister of Armenia and how Moscow will behave with him

On Tuesday, May 8, the leader of protests in Armenia of the last weeks of Nikol Pashinyan on the second attempt became the prime minister of the country-59 deputies voted for him. Pashinyan began to replace the jacket for a respectable jacket from a place and already invited President Armen Sargsyan to resign the head of the National Security Service and the police chief. But these steps are definitely tactical and even reflex: the leaders of the revolution often begin by overthrow the proteges of the previous regime. As for other steps - primarily foreign policy - the new prime minister still behaves extremely carefully. It is noteworthy that the Pashinyan will make the first international visit to Sochi to meet with Vladimir Putin (the Elk party, which nominated a revolutionary, against Armenia in the Eurasian Union, and he, in principle, is for the EAEU summit). The new prime minister speaks about the problem of Nagorno -Karabakh, although on May 9 - by the displeasure of Baku - Pashinyan already managed to fly there by helicopter.

Pashinyan’s positions as the prime minister are not yet completely clear, but we can already talk about the contours of the agenda advocated by him, says Vadim Dubnov, an expert of the Moscow Center of Carnegie Moscow. At the same time, it is easier to touch the Pashinyans with the Nagorno -Karabakh, probably nothing will touch anything at all. “I don’t think that it is necessary to somehow provoke events in Yerevan on the problem of Karabakh,” says Dubnov. - Pashinyan will act in the same narrow framework in which Sargsyan acted. When we talk about Karabakh, you need to understand that this problem is solved through compromises. For Pashinyan, they are now impossible (he does not want to lose the resource of support from the people), so the maximum that he can further discuss technical things on this problem; This is the only thing that is possible there now. ”

With the attitude of Moscow towards Pashinyan, the situation is more complicated. For the first time in many years, Russia's officials defiantly did not interfere in what was happening in another country, and some - for example, the representative of the Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova - almost supported the independence of the choice of the fraternal people.

The only one who spoke sharply against was the Rosneft spokesman Mikhail Leontyev on the air of the Komsomolskaya Pravda radio, who wished Armenia to “King the Sausage”. And for once-an unheard of business! -For the words of the journalist, the press secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov began to openly swell on the air.

“These statements have no and cannot have anything to do with the official line of Moscow in relation to Armenia,” Peskov TASS said. “And also they have and cannot have anything to do with those warm feelings of friendship and fraternity that the Russians have historically have for the Armenian people.”

Actually, the non -interference of Moscow is a clearly verified strategy from the “top itself”, says Vadim Dubnov. “Moscow reacted completely correctly,” the expert says. “The feeling that the team was given“ Let them do what they want, all the same, they will not go anywhere from us. ” There is an understanding that Pashinyan cannot curse abruptly with Moscow now. ” The problem for the new prime minister is not only that more than half of the business in Armenia is connected with Moscow, but also that many businessmen act in her - Moscow - interests. “Therefore, for any reason, Pashinyan will have to discuss his position with Russia,” adds Dubnov.

As an example, how it works, the expert cites the situation with the conclusion of an association agreement with the European Union, which was signed by the previous Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan. Dubnov calls this agreement “fragmented” and clarifies that Moscow decided: such a format is now possible. Approximately the same methods of “consultations” will build a policy of relations between the two countries further, the political scientist believes.

The key problem directly for Pashinyan himself will now be the formulation of his own agenda - but what did he eventually wanted from his revolution after she led to success. The understanding of further guidelines in foreign and domestic policy for the new Armenian prime minister has yet to formulate, but now the experts have the feeling that the Pashinyan will not become either Saakashvili or Yushchenko for Armenia and Russia. “Although, if you don’t be like them, I don’t really imagine how you can reform Armenia [in its current state],” concludes Vadim Dubnov.