Why Russia (not) Venezuela

Maduro's stability inspires confidence in all autocrats of the world, including Russian

Photo: Flickr / Miguel Herrera

What is common between Vladimir Putin and Nicholas Maduro, President of Venezuela ( re -elected on Sunday for a new term)? They both entered, politely letting each other forward, into all scientific studies of modern authoritarianism. What is common between presidential elections in Russia and Venezuela? The purchase of voter loyalty (in the Venezuelan case literally with food), buses bringing loyalists to the plots, the call of the opposition to the boycott of the elections. What is related to these two modes? Oil. Propaganda rationale for isolation. Review of the search for a source of trouble in the United States. Opposition discrediting.

What far to go for justification? It is enough to see the materials of our native federal television channels: "American business has not hidden desire to take control of the country for a long time." Well, what all insiders are talking about yet: if it were not for the economically unreasonable assistance to Russia and China, the Maduro regime, no matter how firmly he stood on demagogic backups, would have collapsed for a long time.

Yankee - no!

Support for Venezuela Putin Russia is absolutely irrational. The rationality is only external, approximately the same as in the case of Syria - this is, they say, the struggle against terrorism. Nothing that the terrorists approached the borders of Russia as a result of this struggle - moved to Afghanistan, and our fellow citizens, legal and illegal military, continue to die in Syria? Games with Venezuela - in fact, the project of Igor Sechin. But it does not have a technical and economic lining-insiders say that the level of corruption in the Venezuelan oil industry made a strong union of Putinsko-Social and Madurian elites possible, but he also meaningful cooperation. This alliance is the result of relict Sovietized thinking: Russia should have its own zones of influence, including, as it was in the days of the USSR, in South America, and in Africa, and in the Middle East. In addition, I want to imagine my defeats. What Putin’s Russian Federation succeeded: it is seriously considered an influential world player, as if the ability to crap everywhere and everywhere there is a sign of power. The world spoiler and the world player is still not the same ...

The world is divided into zones of influence. And if there is an opportunity to keep the bitch sons from the last forces, but their bitch sons - Assad and Maduro, guardians of the zones, this will be done to the last Nefudollar.

The electorate in Venezuela will be split in half between advanced groups and conservative. Now this electorate is not there, because its modernization part does not participate in the elections, considering them a farce

Again, we turn to the logic of Russian federal channels: the Americans, just like in Ukraine and in Russia, supported the opposition in every possible way, poured millions of dollars into it in order to break off oil -bearing Venezuela. Further: “In December 2015, the injections were enough for the opposition to take most places in the parliamentary elections. After that, all the initiatives of President Maduro were constantly blocked. The crisis has begun. ” Yess! More precisely, si! The world backstage is to blame for the crisis. In hunger. In inflation of 13,000% per annum, that 1 dollar costs 700 thousand bolivars. The Russian people never lived as badly as under Obama. Only the Venezuelan people are worse.

In fact, Maduro almost lost the previous presidential elections to one of the popular opposition leaders Enrique Caprichel, who expressed the interests of modernized oriented strata of society - as in the essential number of countries in the modern world in Venezuela, split in half between advanced groups and conservative. Now this electorate is not there, because in the elections the modernization part does not participate, considering them a farce. The United States and the European Union, many Latin American countries, where the Venezuelans flee, do not recognize these elections.

Patronymic, legend, frying ...

Nicholas Maduro, a former bus driver, a faithful Bolivarian and a follower of the charismatic Hugo of Chavez could write a practical manual for modern dictators. In 2015, the opposition really won the parliamentary elections. The new parliament prepared the law on amnesty 120 political prisoners, blocked Maduro’s decision on an extraordinary economic situation, which would allow him to rule through decrees. Then the president, in turn, blocked the parliament using the completely loyist Supreme Court: 24 times in six months he torpedoed the initiatives of the legislative branch. Then Maduro destroyed the parliament, forming a loyalist constitutional assembly. When the Prosecutor General of Louise Ortega began the investigation of corruption and abuse of power, the constitutional assembly deprived her of powers, despite the fact that they had to end only in 2021.

Focus, the results of elections that the world does not recognize, complete devastation - and nevertheless, the regime lives. On a simple formula expressed by an elderly Venezuelaan quoted by Wall Street Journal: "The United States and the opposition provoked hunger and many people suffer." “I will carry out the economic revolution that shock the world,” said Maduro, “and I will do it at all costs, spend as much time as you need. I will devote my life to a change in the country's economy. ” Judging by this statement, the shocks are not finished, everything is just beginning, and this for a long time - until the end of the dictator’s life.

Focus, elections that the world does not recognize, complete devastation - and nevertheless, the regime lives. On a simple formula expressed by an elderly Venezuelaan quoted by Wall Street Journal: “The USA and the opposition provoked hunger and many people suffer”

Russia is not Venezuela - according to the degree of collapse. But she is quite Venezuela in the shamelessness and recklessness with which the institutional basis of the state and society is destroyed. The Venezuelan precedent only inspires autocrats around the world, including Russian: you can go very far in the technologies of authoritarian rule and maintain power and at least the appearance of folk support. The rigidity combined with the most primitive propaganda works. The poor are grateful to the chief chief for not yet poor. And ... vote. And all sorts of USA, the EU, neighboring Colombia and so on. Do not have any values.

Let the whole world wait.

* Author - head of the programs of the Moscow Center of Carnegie, permanent columnist NT

The author’s opinion may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial office