06 June 2018, 08:54 / Economics

Experts have found weak points in the state arms program

Implementation of the state armament program (SAP) for 2018-2027. worth more than 19 trillion rubles. will face serious problems due to a set of unresolved problems in the Russian military industry, experts from the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies concluded in the report “Risks of implementing GPV-2027 associated with a shortage of modern structural materials.” refers to the text of the report RBC .

Experts point to “weak points” - risks associated with the production of modern structural materials, the absence or deficiency of which can block or long delay the launch of the final series of weapons. The report cites the possibility of tougher sanctions as a traditional serious risk. Another risk is the overly optimistic, according to experts, macroeconomic forecast to which the state program is tied.

A foreign policy risk is the possibility of an escalation of the conflict with Ukraine, which would lead to an adjustment in military spending; on the other hand, a hypothetical improvement in relations with the West could also force a revision of the SAP to reduce spending, experts say. Speaking about domestic political risks, the center's analysts point out that almost all opposition forces are in favor of reducing military spending in favor of social spending.

In addition, the report notes, certain risks include difficulties in attracting quality personnel due to lack of investment in human capital, weak management and the crisis in technical education. At the same time, under sanctions, specialists will not be able to cooperate with colleagues from other countries, the report says. Experts also point to the traditional production risk represented by the crisis in the national machine tool industry and outdated machines.

Sanctions do not allow us to count on import supplies of metals necessary for special steels, which was widely resorted to in the past, experts emphasize. This, according to the report's authors, is one of the most underestimated risks. Analysts state that today Russian mechanical engineering relies primarily on imports.

A serious problem for the defense industry is created by the situation around the flagship of Russian special metallurgy, the Volgograd metallurgical plant "Red October", whose products are used by Uralvagonzavod for the production of the Armata tank and the United Aircraft Corporation for the Su-57 fighter. Due to a dispute between business entities and criminal cases, the enterprise may suspend operations; in this case, it will not be possible to rely on the import of necessary components due to US sanctions, experts warn: the result could be the disruption of critical defense programs. According to the center's analysts, among the military-industrial complex industries only in aircraft and rocket manufacturing, steel and iron-based materials have never played a leading role - here aluminum is being replaced by composites.

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Heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) "Sarmat". It is being developed to replace the Ukrainian-made Voevoda ICBM (RS-20, Satan). Developed by the State Research Center named after. Makeev, production is planned to be launched at the Krasmash plant in Krasnoyarsk. Apparently, the program is about 2-3 years behind the original deadlines