What will happen to your pension after the reform, all the money of the 2018 World Cup and flying cars from Boeing

Answers to the main questions about pension reform - in the evening newsletter The Bell

Future pensioners promise a more fun life than the current one. But it will begin later. Photo: AGN "Moscow"

Today it was announced the first, and, probably, the latest large reforms of the new government in the near future: the money for the execution of the May Decree Vladimir Putin will be collected by raising the retirement age (up to 63 years for women and up to 65 for men) and VAT (from 18 to 20%). The first measure was inevitable, the second - even some officials consider frankly harmful.

Pension reform

Together with free education and healthcare, the low age of retirement remained one of the three inviolable components of the Soviet heritage - however, the most vulnerable. The deficit of the Pension Fund and the low amount of pensions inevitably led to its increase. Moreover, more than 50% of citizens now continue to work in the first years after reaching the retirement age, and at the beginning of 2018 more than a quarter of 46.5 million pensioners worked in the country.

Will pensions grow now?

Of course, just not very much. In the last three years, pensions have increased on average by 400-500 rubles, and now they will be almost a thousand rubles a year.
Now the average pension is approximately 35% of the average salary (39,000 rubles in 2017). Without raising the retirement age, this ratio could not be preserved, economists are sure. But it is not worth counting on a sharp increase: the main goal of pension reform is not the growth of pensions, but a reduction in the FIU deficiency, recalls the chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalya Orlova.

Who will retire the first later?

The extended increase in the retirement age will be the first to affect men born in 1959 and women born in 1964. Both those and others will receive the right to retire in 2020 - at the age, respectively, 61 years and 56 years.
To figure out how much you will receive in retirement, you can here .

How much will we live in retirement?

In 2010, 60-year-old men in Russia on average retired for more than 14 years, 55-year-old women-a little less than twenty-four. About the same was the so -called age of survival in the OECR countries, writes the Higher School of Economics.
By banal subtraction, it turns out that this period for women and men will decrease by the end of the reform by 5 and 8 years, respectively. The government comforts that together with the retirement age in Russia, life expectancy is growing, but this demographic indicator is not quite suitable for analyzing pension issues (for example, it includes a percentage of mortality among newborns).

Improving VAT

We analyzed all the charms of VAT increase in the morning newsletter in detail, and in the evening we found out that not even the entire government supports this measure.

“It was not the Ministry of Finance that came up with the VAT, the decision was made at a meeting with the president two weeks ago,” says one of the federal officials. For this option, he said, the presidential assistant Andrei Belousov spoke. The only alternative was the mitigation of the budget rule ( according to the recipe of Alexei Kudrin) , but the Ministry of Finance “stood for him to death,” he indicates.
“VAT is best gathering. [The head of the Federal Tax Service of Mikhail] Mishustin is well administered, so they decided to raise it, ”adds another official from the financial and economic bloc: in total, this will bring about 2–2.5 trillion of additional non-veneftegas revenues (in six years), which can be launched to fulfill the“ May decree ”.
But the increase in VAT is guaranteed to affect the growth rate of the economy, the interlocutors of The Bell agree. The incomes of the population fell for four in a row and just began to recover, the growth of VAT is a blow to prices and demand. “There will simply not be such a growth driver as demand,” one of them is sure.
The growth of the VAT rate will accelerate inflation. Alexandra Suslin from the economic expert group says that the growth will be only 0.3 p. But this does not cancel the fact that their additional income from this maneuver will ultimately collect from the population.

What am I to me?

Ultimately, all this is done in order to find an additional 8 trillion rubles for the new May decree Vladimir Putin. But despite the fact that its execution will essentially pay the population, the government did not offer us any new effective control mechanisms for the expenditure of these funds. We’ll have to believe the word that new megastroets (after all, part of the money will go to them) will give impetus to the economy.

MONEY

Who will work at the 2018 World Cup

In the opening match of the 2018 World Cup, Russia won Saudi Arabia with a score of 5: 0. Congratulations to everyone who was sick (and we remind you that the victory in the first match over one of the weakest national teams of the tournament is not talking about), but we continue to count the money of the championship. Who will work on it the most?

The answer to this question is actually unequivocal: the International Football Federation (FIFA) will work the most. Its net profit for 2018 will amount to $ 1.1 billion, and this will cover $ 997 million losses received in the previous three years of the football cycle. FIFA revenue from the championship will be $ 6.1 billion-27% more than from the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. The main items of income are the sale of television broadcasts ($ 3 billion) and sponsorship ($ 1.45 billion).
As for Russia , even the estimates of the cost of the championship vary here-according to the official budget, 675 billion rubles were spent on it, according to RBC, 883 billion was expended. The Moody's agency rated a positive effect of the economy at 150-210 billion a year for five years. Similar figures - 867 billion rubles - were given by the Russian government. This is not entirely correct, but if you add these numbers, Russia will also be in the plus, albeit in a small one - from 20 to 200 billion rubles.
On their small scale, but also well, ticket speculators will work on football - despite all measures against them, resellers have already sold 140,000 tickets with an average margin of 200%, earned at least $ 40 million clean.
According to FIFA, at the beginning of June, 600,000 foreign fans will arrive in Russia, 2.4 million tickets were sold. Oddly enough, the US fans (88,000) were bought most of the tickets, in the three - Brazil (72,500) and Colombia (65,000). Full statistics can be seen here .
No exact assessments of how many these people will work on the hotel business, and the restaurant, according to RBC, will earn 13 billion rubles. It is even more difficult to evaluate how much money the Russians will earn on the rental of apartments, the rise in price of which the media has been written since the beginning of the year. But from the statistics of Avito ads, we can conclude: most of all, in comparison with the usual season, residents of regional cities will earn in the championship. In Volgograd, the average price of daily rental of apartments during the championship for six months increased 5 times, in Samara - 4.5, in Kazan and Sochi - 3.5 times. In the largest cities, everything is not so sharply-in Moscow, the price rose 2 times, and in the popular for tourists all year round, St. Petersburg has not changed at all. At the same time, from the graph it can be seen that in the spring the landlords (especially for some reason in Volgograd) were counting on more, and by June demand forced them to die appetites.

Another Benecifias of the championship, at least due to the growth of passenger traffic, will become airlines . The state in every possible way stimulated them not to increase prices, and as a result, tickets did not rise so much - but tickets to the cities of the World Cup on the days of matches, according to Tutu.ru, were still uprooting at times.

Signals

Crimea - Russian, charity - fake

Donald Trump has problems again-and not at all because he, as it turned out today, in the conversations at the G7 summit called Crimea Russian, explaining that "everyone speaks in Russian there." In the United States, these statements, especially unofficial ones, are of little interest: the main news today: the New York prosecutor accused Trump and his family of abuse of their charity fund The Trump Foundation. According to the prosecutor's office, Trump illegally used the funds of the fund to resolve court lawsuits for business, the commission of personal purchases and, worst of all, financing his own presidential campaign. However, Trump does not threaten anything too serious for this: the fund will have to pay several million dollars of fines and then close, and for the president himself the prosecutor requires a ban on holding positions in charitable foundations or being their founder for 10 years.

PRACTICE

Boeing will teach people to fly

The future with flying cars has never been so close. Last year, Boeing established the GO Fly Prize contest, where participants from around the world can try to create a “practical aircraft for individual use”, the promised prize - $ 2 million. These devices should be safe, quiet and ultra -compact, and could overcome 30 kilometers without additional recharge or sublime with one person. Today, the names of the winners of the first stage became known and their projects were published (you can see them here ). They look rather strange. Projects of winners with names like “Hummingbuzz” and “Blue Sparrow” (“Blue Sparrow”) are more like a kind of flying motorcycles or passenger drones, many are not succumbing to any comparison at all. One thing unites them - all engineers went beyond the concept of the “reactive backpack” (jetpack) proposed at the competition. By the second stage of the competition, the contestants will have to build a working version of the aircraft and ideally not cripple anyone.

Peter Mironenko