Such a different Ima

In the 80s in the Soviet Union, several groups “Tender May” were tour, and only one was real. The same can be said about the teams of political strategists from one consulting agency who came to Kuzbass and the Novosibirsk region.

Igor Ukrainians

Kuzbass and Novosibirsk regions are regions, although neighboring, but historically possessing different electoral traditions. Such a concept as “legitimacy of elections” in Kemerovo and Novosibirsk was always perceived in different ways. But recently, they began to strive for the Central Russian, common for all the standard of honest, but non -competitive elections at a very rapid pace. And the best (at least, in their own opinion) political consultants from the so -called “Kremlin pool” were sent to them in this.

Not only actively participating, but also carefully studying the political processes of the two, relatives to me, regions in this electoral cycle, noted an interesting detail. The same people, from the same consulting agency in, albeit different conditions, with equally great powers and capabilities show diametrically opposite results. We are talking about the political technologists of the IMA-Consulting, which are currently being conducted by the Governor's campaigns of the two acting: Sergey Tsivileva and Andrei Travnikov. Faced in the course of the campaign with similar problems, having sufficient resources, the techno in one case demonstrates what the perfect election campaign should be. In another, on the contrary, they do everything in such a way that it seems that they want to show an example of how to do in no case, setting records for technological errors. You can, of course, try to write off on the “specifics of the regions”, but, having looked a little more attentive, it becomes clear that the matter is still in the competencies of specialists.

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To make sure that the conditions of technologists in both cases are similar, you need to answer two questions. Who had to lead to the governors? And what problems did the professionals have to encounter?

Both in Kuzbass and in Novosibirsk, the so -called technocrats were appointed. Both are “Varangians”, both are representatives of large oligarchic groups. Tsivilev is the man of Gennady Timchenko, travnikov - a native of Severstal Alexei Mordashov. Neither one nor the other has experience in public policy.

Now about the conditions. In the Novosibirsk region, traditionally, all elections of any level are held according to an unpredictable scenario, and it is often impossible to predict the result even with the help of the most modern sociological tools. But in the Kemerovo region over the past 20 years, there has not been a single transparent election campaign, and the results were always corny “painted”. Therefore, the predictability of the first honest (!) Elections, which everything is being talked about in Kuzbass (from Tsivilev himself to members of the district election commission) also raises questions. Especially in the context of the fact that after the March events, protest sentiments reign not only in Kemerovo, but throughout the region. Accordingly, the complexity of the electoral field we have both there and there.

In both cases, former governors were the main confrontant force: Aman Tuleyev and Victor Tolokonsky. Political heavyweights, offended by the system, could and, most importantly, wanted to influence the course of the election campaign. Both, contrary to the desire of the center, acquired decent positions and had already begun to form a front. In the case of Tolokonsky, the choice was obvious. Comrade Lokot is a quantity associate of Viktor Alexandrovich and obliged to him in many ways his career. But Aman Gumirovich also has a lot of grateful officials, businessmen and politicians in the region. The evidence of this is the almost unanimous election of Tuleyev to the post of chairman of the regional council literally a week after the resignation. That is, in this aspect, the starting positions of the two acting positions were similar.

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And how did experienced political technologists from IMA began to cope with all these difficulties?

In the Kuzbass, the techno literally immediately took the “bull by the horns”. The first task was the capture of the information field, which, by the way, was monopolized by Tuleyev, and the bold positioning of the new acting as a savior and a mission. The difficulty was also that Tsivivev had already managed to “do business” with his statements about “PR you are on the tragedy ...” and kneeling, as well as ridiculous excuses on this subject (the lack of political experience affected). This background had to get rid of. But in parallel, the new old chairman of the regional council straightened his wings in full, and with his statements that the Tsivilev was not familiar to him and he had his own receivers very nervous, including the federal center. But how quickly the technologists (probably, together with the political bloc of the administration) managed to turn everything upside down.

Having competently taking advantage of their resources in federal media, promptly, somewhere and manually, having set up the Kuzbass media, Ima experts quickly turned Tsivilev into the “Head of Kuzbass”, whom everyone had been waiting for a long time. Active, independent, modern, and, of course, technocratic. And any negative statements by Tuleyev even added authority to Tsivilev in the eyes of voters.

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At the same time, in Novosibirsk, everything developed according to a completely opposite scenario. The information space of the herbalists completely lost to both his potential competitor Anatoly Lock and Tolokonsky. Sometimes it even seemed that travecks specially occupied a passive position to lose the elections to the communist. And the rumors that such a scenario is discussed at the top were actively launched and distributed to the opponents of Travnikov. And again, the reactions of technologists were not at all. Instead of finally doing business (taking as an example the work of their colleagues working in Kemerovo), Moscow experts began to try to write off all their failures on local personnel. Having been carried away by the search for traitors, the techno managed to quarrel not only with the political bloc of the government, but with the entire election headquarters in the broadest sense of the word. The local “United Russia”, the top of the Legislative Assembly, and the leaders of state media fell into disgrace. Moreover, it cannot be said that in Kuzbass, Ima gets along very peacefully with local personnel, but disputes in Kemerovo pass in a more constructive format and do not take much time from the main lesson - elections. And these disputes and contradictions do not go beyond the borders of the cabinets, they do not require the intervention of curators from Moscow.

It is also impossible not to note how in different ways political consultants coped with the “former”. In Kemerovo, the techno with the help of a competent signals from the center (which, by the way, probably Ima itself was created), their proper interpretation in local media, and then the spread of the “right rumors” in the establishment, quickly achieved that all the large political and business players of Kuzbass became clear who the host was in the house. The outflow of supporters from Aman Gumirovich became so swift that by mid -May Tuleyev was virtually one.

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In the neighboring region, events unfolded according to the opposite scenario. The desire of the local business to help Tolokonsky and the elbow intensified in geometric progression. There were either no signals from Moscow at all, or they were so weak and slurred that the city hall unfolded them in her favor. In the meantime, the Novosibirsk elites were getting closer and closer to Lokty, political strategists forced Travnikov to make ridiculous trips to the region to publicly scold and so snapped local officials.

While the whole city is hung with Banners of Lokota and its “Strategies 2030”, travecks are trying to catch up with opponents with the Imas-High Strategy “Siberian Leadership”. Tolokonsky frankly trollite Travnikov, speaking of “not the best choice of the president”, technology tells him that Viktor Alexandrovich should be called to the Council for the development of a socio-economic strategy (from which he later defending, inflicting the other impact in the information space). It became especially disappointing when Acting really did something (such as a synchroton in Akademgorodok, the president’s instructions on the development of a scientific center, volleyball and ice palaces of sports), and in the information field it is so weak that political strategists for such a long time to drive in a way. Particularly touched after all these cases of the presidential protege of Travnikov, who deserve all sorts of praise, to see the “People’s Governor” of the elbow in the company of Vladimir Putin.

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The Kemerovo region is not yet possible to boast of mega projects. But there, this does not stop specialists from the same consulting agency. Even simple introductory trips to cities and areas, with banal promises of repairs in schools, hospitals, houses of culture and sports, are played out so that it looks and perceived by voters as a global reconstruction of the entire region. The Kuzbass development strategy initiated by CIVIVIEV until 2035, drawn under the copy of the Ima Shniks from the same textbook as Siberian Leadership, comes up with a bang so much that even yesterday's irreconcilable opponents of the regime express their desire to take part in its development. And how did you deal with opposition leaders of public opinion? The activist of the ONF Maxim Uchvatov was attached to “Fair Russia”, who lost his family in the “Winter Cherry” by Igor Vostrikov in general in the “One”. And the rest will be found now.

Changes in the teams of both acting are held regularly. But here is the trouble. If CIVIVIV everything happens very colorful and bright, and the banal change of some “system officials” to others is perceived as a global renewal of the team, then in Travnikov it goes with a creak. Albeit replacements, to some extent, are also obvious leaders in their areas, members of the government on “incomprehensible who” are often interpreted not in his favor. And again, in my opinion, the point here is precisely in the presentation, which is not. As a result, this topic in Novosibirsk was not properly played out.

The culmination of everything was the official start of the election campaign, where everything once again went to different scenarios. In the conservative Kemerovo region, the heyday of democracy is now outwardly. No one doubts the legitimacy of the elections. Apparently there will be a lot of participants, and no administrative resource or something else. And with all this, no doubt about the positive outcome of the elections. This is preparation. Ima - well done!

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And in Novosibirsk, the preparatory work completely failed by specialists, the preparatory work launched the situation so much that it was no longer possible to endure further. The presidential administration was forced to intervene and breed in the corners of people who should do one thing and help each other. Moreover, the risk of losing the campaign forced to include power and administrative levers to quickly clean the electoral field from unwanted elements. But the most unpleasant thing is that the negative result of the work of technologists forced AP and Travnikov publicly go to agreements with opponents that I really do not want to fulfill. And, most likely, it will have to. In any case, publicly.

Moreover, the election campaign now looks somehow artificially and absolutely not interesting. As a result, questions will arise about legitimacy (the Novosibirsk public likes to ask questions). But all this could be avoided. It was possible and necessary to create the conditions that would make the elbow refrain from applications about participation in the elections (with their provocative actions, the imaginates forced the imash to make this statement as early as possible). The nomination of any other candidate from the Communist Party was beneficial to everyone. And why do everyone think about it only now? Why then, one wonders, did the "best" political technologists of the country were needed here? What is the use of them now? There are more questions than answers.

True, it is still possible to keep his face Andrei Alexandrovich and make his victory of the real (and not Pirrova). If the vast majority of residents of the Novosibirsk region come to the polls, and the turnout will be close to the one that was during the presidential campaign, this will certainly relieve questions. But are specialists who are currently working in Novosibirsk now? I doubt it. At least probably a real Ima consulting from Kemerovo is needed.

Political scientist, chairman of the expert council of the Siberian Politics Research Fund, Igor Ukrainian

The author’s opinion may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial office