Alexander Golts: "Forward, in the XIX century"

"Although the Russian-American summit, which will be held in Helsinki on July 16, remains exactly two weeks, it is safe to state: the Kremlin has already won a confident diplomatic victory. Exactly the same as the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Yun, who was already met by the American president," writes the chief editor of the "Daily Journal."

"In its primitive understanding of national interests, Donald Trump is amazingly coincided with Vladimir Putin. Both presidents consider world policy a certain new" Yalta table ", behind which" great "lead an endless game with a zero sum, using the" small "countries as playing cards. All this is fully fed into the concept of the Realpolitiki of the 19th Printed both Putin and Trump.

I note that both leaders look at world affairs equally, does not guarantee that they can agree. Another thing is important here. Trump, who in all ways (including the rejection of previously taken obligations) achieves the economic dominance of America in the world, does not see an opponent here in Russia. The contribution of our country to the world economy is negligible. That is why Trump does not understand why Russia was given at least a quarter of time in meetings of the "Big Seven". But at the same time, it was the current administration that imposed such sanctions that were extremely painful for Moscow. With this approach, it is not very clear that in the logic of Trump, Putin can offer as a fee for normalizing relations and weakening of sanctions pressure.

From the side of the Kremlin, certainly there will be no concessions in the field of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are the only area where Russia is equal to the United States. Putin will not part with this trump card for any rugs. In addition, in the negotiations on these topics, the main thing is just numerous details, to which Trump has no interest. The best one can hope for is a kind of general declaration that will start negotiations, no, not about the reduction of missile -nuclear weapons, but at least about the preservation of those agreements that already exist. In particular, on negotiations on the extension of the START-concluded agreement in 2010, the validity of which should expire in 2021.

It is also unlikely that Vladimir Putin will make any concessions on the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis. Firstly, because "insist." And secondly, because this crisis is not too interested in Trump.

Syria and Trump's help remains in fulfilling his promise to withdraw American troops from this country. According to CNN, the "big deal" will assume that Washington was withdrawing troops, agrees to preserve Assad in power. In exchange, Moscow guarantees the safety of "pro-American forces" in the northeast of the country. And besides this, the Kremlin provides the withdrawal of the Right forces and Iranian troops from Syria.

Moscow can fulfill these agreements in only one way. Refuse to withdraw your group and begin to do something exactly the opposite: to start a direct ground operation. After all, someone should replace the Iranian presence. Even if Putin had a desire to get involved in a foreign civil war for many years, thank God, he does not have such an opportunity. The geographical remoteness of Syria, the lack of ground communications will not allow the supply of any significant ground group.

Thus, as a result of negotiations, both Trump and Putin will receive PR-dividends. One will demonstrate to the supporters that he is able to "tame" not only Kim Jong -un. Another will confirm the status of a policy equal to the US President. The summit itself will become a return to the logic of the 19th century in world affairs ... "