Demography and mentality

What happens to the population of Ukraine? How does its composition and mentality change?

Vitaly Portnikov: How do the migration processes affect the Ukrainian population? What to do with the mentality of people? This is our program today, but at first the plot of my colleague Vladimir Ivakhnenko .

Vladimir Ivakhnenko: If in the early 1990s the population of Ukraine was 52 million people, now (without residents of Crimea annexed by Russia) - about ten million less. By 2050, as predicted to the UN, the country's population will probably be reduced by a third, to 36 million people. Correct a crisis demographic situation can be stable economic growth and improvement of the quality of life that are impossible without cardinal reforms.

So far, the only census in independent Ukraine was held at the end of 2001, the population then amounted to almost 48.5 million people: more than 32 million urban population and half as much as rural. The exact number of living in the country is unknown now. The Ukrainian government plans to conduct the next census in 2020. According to demographers, in any case, the number of citizens of Ukraine will decrease, since the country has exhausted the potential of demographic growth. Today, Ukraine is one of the ten most "age" countries of the world. Depopulation may become one of the main threats of the state. Its key cause is high mortality. Statistics testifies: only 56 newborns per 100 dead in Ukraine.

Small income of the majority of the population, emigration, gender inequality, slow natural increase and a small life expectancy - these are factors affecting the reduction in the population of Ukraine. Due to the low standard of living, the birth rate does not grow, each second family has only one or two children. Men live on average 66 years, and women - 76, which on average 10 years less than in Europe as a whole.

Since 2005, the migration balance in the country is positive, that is, more people come than leaving. However, as sociologist Irina Kurilo states , even with a positive balance, Ukraine loses in quality. Young and educated people leave, often come from Asia: Pakistan, China, Vietnam. They most often consider Ukraine as a transit zone, and not the final point of their stay. Millions of Ukrainians annually go to work in Poland, Czech Republic, Italy, Portugal and Russia. The population of Ukraine and its composition, obviously, will largely depend on the scale and directions of migration processes.

Since 2005, the Migration Saldo in the country is positive, that is, more people come than leaving

Against the backdrop of a demographic crisis, in recent decades, positive changes have also occurred in the mentality of Ukrainian citizens. In particular, we are talking about the formation of national identity, the formation of national identity.

Vitaly Portnikov: The guest of our current broadcast is the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine , academician Ella Libanova . What is happening with the Ukrainian population - it decreases, ages, does not reproduce, leaves?

Ella Libanova: This is what is characteristic of most European countries: the population is aging and declining. It’s just that it also goes away, but not there.

Vitaly Portnikov: What can such trends lead to?

Ella Libanova: The European nation is leaving the global civilization arena.

Vitaly Portnikov: In other countries of Europe, people also travel: they leave Poland, from the Baltic countries.

Ella Libanova: Yes. They leave less developed to more developed countries, and we are going to their place. The proportion of Asian and African countries increases very much, the proportion of China and India is growing, because there is relatively high birth rate, and in Africa it is simply high.

Vitaly Portnikov: Nothing of the kind happens in Ukraine. Going to Khreshchatyk, we will see that the population has not changed much.

Ella Libanova: But if you are walking along the Borshchagovka, then it has already changed. Of course, this is far from London and not Paris, we do not have thylan tows yet, but this is all in the future.

Vitaly Portnikov: Russia survived real demographic changes when a lot of immigrants from Central Asia appeared in Central Russia, in Moscow, in St. Petersburg. But this passed without strong explosions for Russian society. There were some excesses, there was a murder of a Tajik girl, but Russia survived it - perhaps because it was the center of the Soviet Union. Is Ukrainian society able to survive this?

Ella Libanova : I think in Ukrainian society this will happen in a completely different way. We do not have xenophobia, there is a misunderstanding of other nations, but this is due to the fact that we always lived in the Slavic environment. Of course, the image of the behavior and the culture of Muslims are unusual for us, but I do not see such a rejection. It seems to me that this is all transient. When we begin to live next to them, we will live calmly.

Migrants are being considered as a transit country so far: they mainly come in order to then go to a more developed country with a more generous system of social support.

Vitaly Portnikov: This is because Ukraine is poor.

Ella Libanova: It will be necessary to adapt these migrants to our order and lifestyle, and at the same time, according to all the documents that we ratified, we must provide them with conditions for the preservation of cultural identity. This requires serious programs.

Vitaly Portnikov: When some kind of disaster appears around the Romsky Tabor, society does not feel any sympathy for the persecuted, because they live differently.

Ella Libanova: Moreover, they began to explain that they themselves were to blame, not so behaved, and the inhabitants of the surrounding houses were very uncomfortable.

Vitaliy Portnikov: A society that is accustomed to life in a mononational environment, with great difficulty, gets used to others.

Ella Libanova: Of course. You can get used to it with great difficulty because you do not know, or because you do not want to accept, and these are fundamentally different things. It seems to me that our problems will be related to ignorance. But I do not observe any signs of xenophobia in Ukrainian society.

Vitaly Portnikov: You see how many accusations - xenophobia, an increase in anti -Semitism ...

Ella Libanova: There is no anti -Semitism, especially at the state level. And from the household you can’t get anywhere, it is everywhere. In Ukraine, now there are no attempts at the state level to cultivate or promote interethnic discord, and I do not observe ethnic conflicts.

Vitaly Portnikov: Maybe because you do not associate the policy of historical memory with xenophobia? And critics of interethnic consent are connected, they believe that figures such as Bandera Il Shukhevich are just markers of xenophobia or anti -Semitism.

Ella Libanova: Once we discussed this topic, and Yushchenko spoke very accurately: we must understand that it was in Ukrainian, Russian, Polish history, these are commemorative figures for each nation, but do not focus them and try to apply modern standards to them. Then they treated everything differently, and the value of human life was completely different.

Vitaly Portnikov: Sometimes it seems to me that the same thing, if you look at what happens during hybrid wars.

Ella Libanova: Still, there are not so many victims. Honestly, let the hybrid war be better than ordinary, “hot”: people die less.

Vitaly Portnikov: By the way, in a hybrid war, the population not only moves to different countries, it also moves from the region to the region. Over these four years, a large number of people moved from east to west.

Ella Libanova

Ella Libanova: The middle class was the first to leave. In general, in Ukraine there are not very many, and there were even fewer in the Donbass. They left mainly before the start of hostilities, mostly fixed and do not want to hear about returning. Qualified workers also settled. The most difficult thing for those who do not have a serious competitive profession and support, because with housing is the most terrible headache.

Vitaly Portnikov: I suspect that a large number of such people are on the other side of the demarcation.

Ella Libanova: People did not so much move out for ideological reasons as they went to where there were relatives or close friends, who could help at least at first. So many were in Russia, many came here to us, and many remained close to the demarcation line. Someone was still there - to protect housing, for example: mostly are the old people.

Vitaly Portnikov: Can we say that this is a socially degrading region - the one that is under Russia under the control of Russia?

Reintegration of Donbass means building a fundamentally new economy

Ella Libanova: This is a huge problem, because the reintegration of Donbass means building a fundamentally new economy. But no one, I hope, is going to revive those mines that were unprofitable 50 years ago. It is necessary to build something new, which means that qualified labor is needed. And where to get it? Those who are fixed in Kyiv, Kharkov, Dnieper, Odessa or Lviv will no longer go back. This is a big question - by whom to replace them? Calting on the Stalinist policy of the office and importing labor from other regions is very problematic. And how else can you motivate people to go there, I honestly do not know. I hope that if in Ukraine the construction of roads will continue at the same pace, we will have a real opportunity to integrate, at least, into regional labor markets. Today we have our own labor market in each village, because it is impossible to get to a neighboring city from this village. If there is a developed road transport network, maybe people, living in some Konstantinovka, will be able to work in Donetsk. Once there was the largest in the Union of Donetsk-Makeevskaya city agglomeration-something like that, apparently, will need to be created there.

Vitaly Portnikov: For agglomeration, normal transport, high -speed or non -speed through movement are needed.

Ella Libanova: I am generally convinced that if earlier from Donetsk to Lviv it was necessary to go not two days, but 7-8 hours, many could have been avoided.

Vitaly Portnikov: Many do not feel the effect of reducing distances for Ukraine.

Ella Libanova: Nothing will work out otherwise, this is the only way to sew the country. Indeed, in principle, migration is a good, useful thing.

Vitaly Portnikov: Do you believe that it will be possible to quickly solve all these transport problems?

Ella Libanova: Quickly - no, but the solution of the solution is still good.

Vitaly Portnikov: You said that the middle class is a few. Over the last four crisis years, the stratification has increased or decreased?

Ella Libanova: There is no reliable assessment. All examinations are selective. We must understand how the population is located in the country, and now we do not understand this, because God knows the census when.

Vitaly Portnikov: And then what to do? It turns out that no one has clear landmarks: neither politicians nor social services?

Ella Libanova: That's right. But social services are a little easier: the principle of appeal is valid there.

Vitaly Portnikov: But we at least understand which regions are richer and which are poorer?

Ella Libanova: It is clear that Kiev is richer, and in everything else there are great doubts. If you look according to research, it is generally not clear how they live, the Transcarpathian Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk region, and when you arrive, you look-they live completely to themselves. In Transcarpathia, they open a restaurant, a hotel, and it is generally impossible to find a waitress or maid in less than eight thousand hryvnias.

Vitaly Portnikov: Nearby other countries: why will she work for that kind of money if she can go to work there?

Ella Libanova: That's right. And of course, migrant money gives a lot for the development of these regions. The eastern regions, with the exception of Odessa, are quite vulnerable: people believe that they have a bad Ukrainian one, and they will not talk to them in Lviv.

Vitaly Portnikov: And will they probably be in Warsaw?

Ella Libanova: But you still have to get to Warsaw. In April, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducted an examination: not many people are ready to leave. In absolute numbers-yes, there are many: about one and a half million people have already taken any actions for this. But if you look at interest, it seems not so much.

Vitaly Portnikov: Is it possible to say that an increase in migration is associated not only with the economic crisis, but also with the legalization of Ukrainian labor in Poland and the Czech Republic?

Ella Libanova: In Poland - yes, but in the Czech Republic this has not yet happened. The number of migrants is about the same that now, in 2012, but in 2012, half went to Russia, and half shared between the rest of the European countries-these are Poland, the Czech Republic, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Spain. And now there is very little left in Russia: maybe the fourth part, and the rest went to European countries, and this is another migration.

Vitaly Portnikov: That is, migration to Russia has significantly decreased?

Ella Libanova: Very significant. Relations between countries, of course, play a role. In addition, the difference in salary with Russia is not so great. East European countries in every possible way soften the conditions for hiring for the work of Ukrainians. By and large, the Polish or Czech employer now does not even require high qualifications, he agrees for his money to retrace our workers, if it is within a month or two. The difference in the salary with Poland, of course, is incomparable.

Vitaly Portnikov: Will this somehow politically affect the situation in the country in the future? After all, many people who worked in Russia often became carriers of the idea of proximity of countries.

Ella Libanova: I think it will be reflected. But the most important thing is that those people who went to Poland, the Czech Republic, and especially further, return. If they return, they will bring with them a new understanding, including relations, behavior in society. A person who lived for some time in the same Spain will not throw a cigarette butt to the ground, because it is not accepted there. And in this sense, of course, the return of migrants is very promising. The question is that they return.

Vitaly Portnikov: This requires the development of the economy, jobs, the desire of the state.

Now the lack of labor is turning into an investment brake. There is money, there are no workers

Ella Libanova: The state would like this. This is not only the development of the economy. I think jobs will be, it is necessary that our employers understand that with this level of salaries they will not come to work. Now the lack of labor is turning into an investment brake. There is money, there are no workers.

Vitaly Portnikov: I recentlytalked on the air with a young man who is engaged in migration in Poland, works in a company helping migrants, and he said that many people, even when they offer them Polish salaries in Ukraine, still do not agree, because they do not believe in stability.

Ella Libanova: Here is not only that. We have high salaries, as a rule, for prestigious employment. In Ukraine, social ties act in such a way that people do not agree to this. But the same engineer will easily go to wash the dishes to Poland. Nobody knows him there: "I work in Poland, my brother or my relative works in Poland."

The same with youth. Not so long ago we conducted an examination, asked schoolchildren how they see their future. 85% associate it exclusively with obtaining higher education. Then we ask the second question: and if you go, for example, in vocational school, your salary will be higher, and working conditions no worse? 73% say: no, we still will not go to receive a PETEURE education. But they willingly go to Poland to receive secondary education.

Vitaly Portnikov: That is, this is still the influence of the environment?

Ella Libanova: Of course. We have no respect for working professions.

Vitaly Portnikov: And this is strange: after all, in Soviet times, it was it that was vaccinated.

Ella Libanova: It was not vaccinated, but declared. The stigma of the PETEUSHKA as it was then, it remains now.

Vitaly Portnikov: It seems to me that nothing like this happens: still, most young people want to be lawyers, journalists, financiers.

Ella Libanova: This is not only here - all over the world. No one wants to go to study as an engineer, everyone wants to "sing, dance, mash with his hands." But still, when you burn: you finished, received a legal diploma, but you can’t get a job-you walk, walk and go to work someone else.

Vitaly Portnikov: Then we need to talk about overcoming the success model that has developed for young people in a post -Soviet society. But this model of success is not only a lawyer, but also a bandit, a businessman.

Ella Libanova: Still, now it has changed a little. The worst thing was in this sense in the 90s, when the girls frankly said: I want to be confused.

Vitaly Portnikov: And who did the boys want to be?

Ella Libanova: Racketers.

Vitaliy Portnikov: Then they saw that the racketeer could be the president of Ukraine: it turned out that all this was true.

Ella Libanova: But, at the same time, they saw that racketeers were more likely to kill than the presidents of Ukraine. Сейчас немножко более цивилизованная ситуация.

Виталий Портников: Если посмотреть на население Украины в целом с точки зрения его привычек и потребностей, то это население европейской страны?

Ella Libanova: No. Евразийской.

Виталий Портников: Вы разделяете Европу, Евразию и Азию? То есть Украина все еще там, где Россия? Но она имеет шансы оттуда выбраться?

Элла Либанова: Она выбирается, но очень медленно и тяжело, по принципу фокстрота — шаг вперед, два назад.

Виталий Портников: В чем отступление?

Элла Либанова: Половина граждан не видит ничего зазорного в том, чтобы работать в России сейчас, когда две страны находятся в состоянии войны. Люди считают, что нет ничего зазорного в том, чтобы не платить налоги, украсть: не у соседа, а у государства, у хозяина, – запросто. Но это, согласитесь, не европейские нормы.

Виталий Портников: Но можно ли из евразийской страны стать европейской на уровне изменения не просто законов, а менталитета людей?

Элла Либанова: Так нужно менять именно менталитет! С законами у нас в основном все в порядке.

Виталий Портников: Европейские наблюдатели с вами не согласились бы.

Элла Либанова: Почти все законы соответствуют европейским стандартам, но они же не выполняются. Менять надо очень постепенно. Кстати, мигранты помогают менять.

Виталий Портников: Когда возвращаются.

Элла Либанова: Даже если они не возвращаются, а просто приезжают на встречу со своими родственниками и знакомыми, они рассказывают, как живут, по-другому себя ведут.

Виталий Портников: И таким образом, вы считаете, меняется общество?

Элла Либанова: Меняется.

Виталий Портников: Сколько нужно лет для того, чтобы евразийское общество стало европейским?

Элла Либанова: Я думаю, поколения три, то есть около 90 лет.

Виталий Портников: Это уже Украина XXII столетия. Вас не смущает, что вы всю жизнь проживете в евразийской стране?

Элла Либанова: А что делать?

Виталий Портников: Если бы вы политиком, вы бы сказали, что это надо сделать быстро.

Элла Либанова: Ментальность быстро не меняется. Для того, чтобы поняли, что нельзя воровать, из населения должно полностью уйти, по крайней мере, то поколение, которое считало, что «все вокруг колхозное, все вокруг мое, кто что охраняет, тот то и берет».

Молодежь, которая сейчас приходит в экономику, еще малочисленна, и она вынуждена следовать тем правилам игры, которые существуют, в том числе и не платить налоги — это считается нормальным. Представьте себе немца, который не платит налоги: он как минимум будет всячески это скрывать, а у нас это демонстрируется.