What threatens the growth of VAT?

Economic consequences of VAT increase economists Evgeny Gontmamer and Pavel Kudyukin

• The State Duma adopted in the third, final reading a bill to increase the VAT rate from 18 to 20% from January 1, 2019.
• An increase in VAT will inevitably entail an increase in prices, since manufacturers will transfer the increased tax burden to the buyer of their goods.
• The economy will not develop for the better: even according to official forecasts, in the coming years, GDP growth rates will be less than 2%.
• The logic of the authorities is incomprehensible: they say that otherwise they can’t find money for pensioners, but at the same time they cancel the planned increase to 26% of the deductions to the Pension Fund.
• Citizens have lost confidence in the state as an institution that protects their interests.

Leading -Vladimir Kara-Murza-Senior

Video version of the program

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: The State Duma of Russia adopted in the third, final reading the bill of the Russian government, which provides for an increase in value added tax (VAT) from 18 to 20%. At the moment, this tax in Russia is 18%, for some goods and VAT services - 10%and 0%. Benefits apply to food, children's goods, books, educational literature and medicines. What threatens an increase in value added tax - today we will talk about this with economists Evgeny Gontmacher and Pavel Kudyukin. First, find out what VAT is.

Evgeny Gontmamer: This is any action to increase the value of the goods. For example, you bought meat, flour, salt, then you scrolled it all and made cutlets. You have reached your salary, equipment. It turned out a certain difference, and the tax is taken from this difference.

Pavel Kudyukin: Sometimes value added is indicated as follows: the cost added by processing. Raw materials were obtained, equipment was used, salary was paid to people, that is, a salary plus surplus value (salary plus profit).

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: And can it be arbitrarily raised or lower?

Evgeny Gontmamer: No, there are economic calculations. In principle, for every economic process there is costs, profit. But the tax can vary. By the way, this is a fairly fresh tax in world history.

Pavel Kudyukin: In Russia, it was introduced in the 92nd year. And the main consideration was that it was administered easier than other taxes.

Evgeny Gontmamer: Throughout the world, standard taxes are taxes on individual income, property. In the 19th century, when large industrial production appeared, corporations appeared, income tax appeared. And VAT appeared in the twentieth century, when it could be calculated. The tax service a hundred years ago technically could not take this tax. And now it is easily taken, because each stage of the transaction is taxed.

Pavel Kudyukin: His dignity - he automatically goes for inflation. In the 92nd year it was introduced for this reason.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: That is, citizens correctly suspect that the increase in prices will follow after the growth of VAT?

Evgeny Gontmamer: Of course. Suppose I am a manufacturer who must pay VAT. Was 18%, became 20%. And of course, I am shifting this to the buyer of my product.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Is it legal?

Evgeny Gontmamer: Yes.

Pavel Kudyukin: VAT pays the final consumer, that is, we are all.

Evgeny Gontmamer: You go to a Russian store, they give you a check, and inside it is written: "VAT-so much." And this is written for the tax service. Now all the cash registers that exist at any outlet are automatically split the cost that we paid and poison. This is recorded in the tax service from each machine. Indeed, this is a shifted tax. As soon as the price of milk increased, for example, by three rubles, an automaton of VAT has grown.

Pavel Kudyukin: But there is another problem. The price cannot be raised to infinity. She rests on solvent demand. And in this regard, it seems that the employer does not care - he transfers to the consumer, but not anyway. In fact, this is an automatic reduction in solvent demand.

Evgeny Gontmamer: People will stop buying expensive goods, and then neither the manufacturer nor the tax service will receive anything at all. Therefore, in any country, in any economy, there is always a search for a balance between the manufacturer, consumer and the state, when everyone wants to get their benefits. And this is done, including through taxes.

In conditions of democracy, this is usually a discussion between parliament and the government, between the opposition and the ruling party

Pavel Kudyukin: In the elementary economy there is the concept of "Luffer Curve": the ratio of the tax rate and the volume of taxes collected. If you make a tax rate too small, taxes will collect little, if you make too much taxes will also be collected. A certain optimum is looking for. The optimum is not calculated mathematically, this is the result of a certain public agreement.

Evgeny Gontmamer: In the conditions of democracy, this is usually a discussion between parliament and the government, between the opposition and the ruling party. By the way, in normal countries, the lion's share of political life is spinning around taxes.

Pavel Kudyukin: The political mission began with the question of taxes: if we are not presented, we will not pay taxes.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Agencies write that increasing tax by 2% will help to bring about two trillion rubles to the budget within six years. Is that so?

Evgeny Gontmamer: Everything will depend on the macroeconomic situation. And she, to put it mildly, is not very good. If the manufacturer’s profitability of its production does not grow (and now we see that there is no height, in my opinion, the number of enterprises that show losses is even increasing), then increase or do not increase the VAT rate-you may fall. And these two trillions may not be. I'm afraid that, unfortunately, the economy will not develop for the better. We see consensus prognoses, including even official ones, where GDP growth rates are less than 2% for the coming years. I do not believe that two trillions can be collected.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: They write that this measure will provide the budget with 633 billion in 2019, 678 and 728-in 2020 and 2021.

Evgeny Gontmamer: In the coming years, according to all forecasts, economic growth will be scanty. Where will the added value come from? After all, value added is a function from the fact that more goods appear, more services. And this will not happen. Apparently, they believe that if they increase this bet, then entrepreneurs and population will lay out some money from their pockets and give it to the state.

Pavel Kudyukin: But the incomes of the population are stagnant, according to Rosstat. And the increase in prices associated with an increase in VAT will lead to a reduction in demand, which will be a blow to business. They beat on both sides: both the consumer and the manufacturer.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Has the VAT increase gave some effect?

Evgeny Gontmamer: The VAT rate of 18% has existed for several years, it is quite stable. I do not really understand the motives why now they suddenly decided to increase. After all, we have a federal budget in the surplus. We have a national welfare fund that will be fluffy because money comes there from superpituals from the sale of oil and gas. There are already almost four trillion rubles. And our state has a very low debt load. If you want it so, then borrow two trillion rubles in foreign or domestic markets.

Pavel Kudyukin: This bill is not only about VAT. There - and this is a certain step towards business - the planned perception of deductions to the Pension Fund has been canceled since 2021. It is said that there is no money in the pension fund, but at the same time they canceled up to 26%. The government in an explanatory note to the bill wrote that this will mean a shortage in the Pension Fund of a trillion on more than an annual rubles annually. Absolutely incomprehensible logic.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Do not you think that monetary reform is being started? Shuvalov became the chairman of Vnesheconombank, which no one expected.

Pavel Kudyukin: There is no need to denominate - we still have a crazy number of zeros on pieces of paper.

Evgeny Gontmamer

Evgeny Gontmamer: It seems to me that this is not the point. The government and the president, just in case, are trying to consolidate as much money as possible in their storerooms. We have a new political cycle, and Vladimir Vladimirovich wants, without carrying out any reforms - neither political nor economic, to calmly live these six years. If somewhere people are a little outraged, trillion rubles are pulled out of this storehouse and say: "Please, friends, here you have a trillion rubles. Calm down." This is another manifestation of the tendency to over centered centralization of money in our country in the hands of a very narrow circle of people, which are, of course, with the state.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: I noticed a strange thing. There are several exceptions in this law. For example, deputies extended until 2025 the validity of the zero VAT rate for air transportation services for passengers and goods to the territory of Crimea.

Evgeny Gontmamer: Crimea and, in my opinion, Kaliningrad have a preferential rate.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: But today, in my opinion, the prices of airline tickets have increased sharply.

Evgeny Gontmamer: This is due to the rise in the price of fuel. Now agriculture will receive an attack. The peasants, farmers took loans at the beginning of the year based on one tariffs for electricity, for motor fuel, and now they will have to give, given the new tariffs. From my point of view, it hits the economy, which already lies at the bottom, very strongly.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: That is, it will be a universal increase in all prices?

Evgeny Gontmamer: differently for different goods. After all, benefits for children's goods, medicines are preserved ...

Pavel Kudyukin: The official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development: By the end of next year, an increase in VAT by two percentage points will give rise in prices by 1.2–1.9 percentage points.

Evgeny Gontmamer: If we take 20% and 18%, then this is an increase by more than 10% of the rate.

Pavel Kudyukin: at 11.1.

Evgeny Gontmamer: Why are we talking not about interest, but about interest points. By the way, VAT rises from January 1 of the next year, but many manufacturers are already starting to raise prices. That is, a year or two will be felt by the inflationary effect of this measure, then, if nothing is touched, probably, inflation will reach some natural level, with which the Central Bank, perhaps, will fight again, to lower it again.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: What are all emergency feverish measures related to? With a fall in production?

Evgeny Gontmamer: I have the feeling that the government is quickly preparing for a very bad situation in our economy. Raising the retirement age - they said that there would be supposedly savings, but it will no longer be. They quickly take measures that completely eliminate this savings. They collect in the suski. The fact that such high prices for gasoline is in many ways a man -made situation. Okay - planes, but we have tens of millions of motorists: who drives trucks, who has personal cars. This is what a stream of money goes to our treasury! .. They say that Plato will now also increase a little. And recently they adopted the law - they increase state duty ...

Pavel Kudyukin: on a passport, for registration of vehicles ... with the world on a thread.

Evgeny Gontmamer: That is, apparently they collect some reserve fund to ensure the stability of the regime.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Can this be considered the consequences of Western sanctions?

The trend of preparation for the worst times is somehow manifested in completely different areas, from taxes, ending with visa centers

Evgeny Gontmamer: Including. The expectations of bad prospects are largely connected with the sanctions and the fact that we are in international isolation. The last American sanctions - what happened to Deripaska, Vekselberg in April, showed Putin and our entire elite: we have no counter -metrods to prevent this. Americans, if necessary, can destroy any Russian export production in this way. And not only Russian, but all that are connected with it in a chain, for example, in Europe. It seems to me that Putin understands: the sanctions cannot be canceled. We see the position of the Congress of the United States. And apparently, additional sanctions will be imposed. Therefore, we must prepare to live in the "besieged fortress."

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: But then these measures are not enough.

Pavel Kudyukin: And who said that these are the last measures? They will not stop there. After all, for quite some time we are talking about a tax maneuver. Projects of increasing income tax to 15%were discussed.

Evgeny Gontmamer: For example, we have internal offshores - in the Kaliningrad region, Russian island near Vladivostok. Our money is invited there, which are bred to Western offshore. Some of our billionaires transferred from Cyprus, for example, to the island of Russian or to the Kaliningrad region. This means that for this money at any moment, as they say, "put a paw." And these people are invited voluntarily and comprehensive.

We have the last statistics of the Central Bank: a rather significant outflow of capital continues from Russia. How do you stop a person, unless you close the border? Who lives somewhere in the region, earned his million dollars there and realized that it would be necessary to save money, and not leave in Russia. It’s difficult so far. Although I think, unfortunately, that such a tendency is that they will overlap it. Visa centers are the first swallow.

Pavel Kudyukin: adopt a law on accreditation of visa centers. And the forecast is such that most of them will close, it will be possible to get a visa only at the embassy or at the consulate, with all bursts.

Evgeny Gontmamer: The trend of preparation for the worst times is somehow manifested in completely different areas, from taxes, ending with visa centers.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: This also includes raising the retirement age.

Pavel Kudyukin: Yes. Plus political twisting of the nuts by the " Yarovaya Law ". A very unpleasant mosaic is folded.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: "Vedomosti" notes that only "United Russia" voted for these laws. Why do you think?

Pavel Kudyukin: Even with the universal vote of the opposition "against", the law is still passing. That is, in this regard, the presidential administration does not even need to make efforts to attract part of the opposition for voting for the bill.

Evgeny Gontmamer: Three fractions, except for United Russia, which are sitting in the Duma, this is no opposition. After all, the series is ahead of the election. The Communists, of course, are profitable to sit behind the back of "United Russia". They will say to the workers: “We voted” against. ”If they would have joined at least some of these laws to“ United Russia ”, then they would have a sharp chance to enter somewhere. This is a very pragmatic position. And it seems to me that it is agreed where they control our State Duma. They are simply allowed ...

Pavel Kudyukin: There are no danger from voting, so they will allow: "Please vote."

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: That is, no threat of street activity is expected?

Pavel Kudyukin: There is street activity, but so far weak. And if street activity will unfold, then this will happen, rather, spontaneously than at the call of parliamentary parties.

Evgeny Gontmamer: Nobody spoke about VAT at all ...

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Maybe we still do not really understand what it leads to.

What does the government have a resource for implicit prices, except for VAT growth? Or is it the last bastion?

Pavel Kudyukin: No, not the last. You can play with excise taxes on tobacco products, for example, on alcohol.

Evgeny Gontmamer: More and more in the country, monopolism is strengthened in so many positions that are in the commodity market. Previously, manufacturers competed with each other, and this balanced prices. In the sectors, there is gradually being tightened to someone alone. Please note that the state began to buy retail chains, such as Magnit. Of course, it is still far from buying up the entire trading network of Russia, but the trends have outlined. Suppose Aeroflot occupies more and more larger positions in the air transportation market. This means that they have more opportunities to dictate prices because competition is reduced. And this happens with gas prices.

Pavel Kudyukin: With prices for motor fuel, everything is simple. 10 vertically integrated oil companies shared the regions among themselves. In the regions, as a rule, an absolute monopoly. In the Perm Territory - Lukoil. In the Yaroslavl region - "Slavneft".

Evgeny Gontmamer: And due to this price, of course, are held at an economically unreasonable level.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Probably, oil companies are actively participating in the election campaign?

Pavel Kudyukin: Not so much in the election campaign as they simply fought with certain groups of bureaucracy.

Evgeny Gontmamer: And a long trouble - intermediaries. Here is the manufacturer, here is the goods lying on the counter, and there are five links between them. And everyone profits. This decreased a little in the 90s, when the state sharply left, and competition arose. And now it appears again - intermediate links. Эти процессы, к сожалению, поддерживают высокий уровень цен.

Павел Кудюкин: Коррупционная составляющая.

Евгений Гонтмахер: Так посредники очень часто – это и есть прикрытие коррупционной составляющей.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: То есть вы уличного протеста не предвидите. А почему у нас народ такой долготерпеливый?

Pavel Kudyukin

Павел Кудюкин: Активных очень долго выбивали. В советские годы давили минимальную попытку самоорганизации и коллективного действия, вплоть до такой мелочи, что официальным инстанциям было дано указание не рассматривать коллективные обращения. Как профсоюзник я знаю, насколько люди не привыкли действовать совместно и насколько они боятся.

Евгений Гонтмахер: И у нас ведь так и не создали нормальную политическую систему – с политической конкуренцией, с разнообразными свободными СМИ, которые представляют разные точки зрения. И это делалось намеренно, начиная чуть ли не с конца 90-х.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: Скоро будет 50 лет как вышли против танков в Праге. А все ни туда ни сюда.

Это трагическая ситуация, и она пока ставит крест на развитии страны

Евгений Гонтмахер: У нас не было реакции, кроме нескольких человек, которые вышли на Красную площадь. Если мы говорим об уличной активности, конечно, мы должны иметь в виду не бунт, когда люди выходят стихийно, бьют окна, машины. Этого не надо допускать. Но я считаю, что если выход на улицы, протест идет в рамках политической системы – это знак здоровья общества. То есть общество позволяет людям выразить свои эмоции, свои пожелания. У них есть представители. И все это потом балансируется в нормальные решения. Но мы знаем, какие у нас санкции за то, что проводишь несогласованный митинг, даже уже, по-моему, одиночные пикеты.

Павел Кудюкин: Моего коллегу присудили к штрафу в 20 тысяч за одиночный пикет – нарушение правил проведения массовых мероприятий. Оказывается, он в одиночку создавал массовое мероприятие.

Евгений Гонтмахер: С точки зрения социального развития это приводит к тому, что люди-то все равно недовольны, но это у них копится внутри, они не могут цивилизованно выразить свое недовольство. И у нас очень высокий уровень немотивированного межличностного насилия в семьях, в школах. Мы не умеем вести переговоры по бизнесу, находить компромиссы. И получается, что люди выплескивают негативную энергетику, а Владимир Владимирович Путин нас призывает к прорыву в XXI век – к цифровой экономике, к креативной экономике. Население жутко обозлено, в том числе и повышением пенсионного возраста. Полностью потеряно доверие людей к государству (кроме Путина, у которого высокий рейтинг) – как к институту, который выражает твои интересы. Государство в нашей системе – это, в общем-то, враг. Государство обязано тебя кормить, поить и так далее. А ты ему исподтишка, чтобы тебя, не дай Бог, не увидели, что-нибудь сделай, какую-нибудь гадость, например, не плати налоги. У нас люди массово при первой же возможности отказываются платить. Конечно, в любой стране люди пытаются минимизировать налоги, но у нас это уже приобрело форму, когда это доблесть, вид спорта. Почему у нас такая большая скрытая экономика, которой по масштабам нет нигде из развитых стран мира? Сейчас опросы говорят, что люди уже махнули рукой на государство и сами пытаются выживать – у них такое настроение. С одной стороны, это хорошо, это мечта либералов, либертарианцев. С другой стороны, это другая крайность. А ведь государство-то нужно. Мы же не против государства. Но государство должно людям помогать, а не жить за какие-то свои интересы. Это трагическая ситуация, и она пока ставит крест на развитии страны. И в этом смысле то, что нет массовых манифестаций, – это очень плохой признак.

Павел Кудюкин: Это то же самое, когда у человека при тяжелой болезни не повышается температура. У организма нет сил сопротивляться.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: А что сейчас пытаются сделать с материнским капиталом?

Евгений Гонтмахер: Его Минфин каждый год пытается закрыть, учитывая довольно большие расходы, но каждый раз политическим решением Путина, насколько я понимаю, материнский капитал остается. Минфин считает это неэффективными затратами. А в этом году Путин ввел дополнительные пособия малообеспеченным матерям, которые рожают детей. То есть политика носит очень комбинированный характер. Для такого типа мер, которые могут быть введены в условиях консолидации, и нужны деньги, чтобы людям вовремя бросить кусок и сказать: "Ребята, вот видите, как все хорошо". В Думе время от времени раздаются призывы ввести налог на бездетность в рамках нашей демографической политики, но пока это не находит поддержки.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: Меня удивляет, что решение о повышении НДС находит поддержку Думы. Осталось подписать Совету Федерации и президенту?

Евгений Гонтмахер: Да, вопрос практически решен. Я думаю, что Совет Федерации это одобрит. А повышение пенсионного возраста – пока только в первом чтении, но официально считается, что принята концепция закона. И теперь открыт прием предложений по второму чтению.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: А правда ли, что сейчас перестали вкладывать российские золотовалютные резервы в американские ценные бумаги?

Евгений Гонтмахер: Меньше стали вкладывать.

Павел Кудюкин: Частично вроде бы даже вышли чуть ли не с потерями...

Евгений Гонтмахер: Это связано с тем, что в Конгрессе рассматривается законопроект (не знаю, будет он принят или нет), очень жесткая мера – санкции на российские средства, которые вложены в американские ценные бумаги.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: То есть их кто-то может конфисковать?

Евгений Гонтмахер: Всякое может быть, особенно если они решат, что мы вмешиваемся в промежуточные выборы, которые будут в Соединенных Штатах в ноябре. И в этом плане Центральный банк России превентивно пытается вывести часть денег из-под возможных заморозок, санкций.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: Так еще не все решено с деньгами ЮКОСа Стокгольмским арбитражем .

Евгений Гонтмахер: Насколько я знаю, апелляция продолжается. Это довольно длинный процесс. Там сложная ситуация.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: Правительство мотивирует повышение пенсионного возраста идеей, чтобы бизнесмены взяли на себя часть экономической нагрузки за повышение уровня жизни пенсионеров. По-моему, это утопия.

Павел Кудюкин: Может быть, имеются в виду предлагаемые меры по людям, у которых откладывается возраст выхода на пенсию. Действительно, есть масса проблем с их положением на рынке труда. И действительно, пытаются переложить на работодателя. Минтруд всерьез обсуждает возможность усложнения увольнений лиц предпенсионного возраста, квотирование и так далее. То есть чисто административные и совершенно неэффективные меры.

Евгений Гонтмахер: Допустим, мужчина в следующем году, если бы были старые правила, прекращает работать, получает пенсию – свои 13-14 тысяч. А так как он не выходит на пенсию, теперь просьба к работодателю оставить его на работе и платить ему такую зарплату. Может быть, это имеется в виду: "Помоги, пожалуйста, выполни социальную функцию". Но, насколько я понимаю, работодатели не в восторге от такой перспективы.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: Наблюдатели все-таки предвидят протестные акции уличные после вступления закона о пенсиях в силу.

Павел Кудюкин: В отличие от закона о монетизации 2005 года, где эффект был понятен и немедленный – у людей что-то отняли, тут это будет растянуто по времени.

Евгений Гонтмахер: Есть когорта, которая пострадает очень быстро. Это около 1,5 миллионов мужчин и женщин, которые в следующем году должны были выйти на пенсию, они же уже строили планы. Даже продолжая работать, они же понимали, что кроме их зарплаты у них еще будет пенсия, льготы – они начнут бесплатно ездить в общественном транспорте... Люди же строят свои жизненные планы очень активно, и в России в том числе. Знаете, сколько видов самых разных льгот и пособий в стране? 800! Есть очень маленькие группы, у которых есть своеобразные льготы.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: Посмотрим, как отреагирует население на рост НДС и на повышение пенсионного возраста.