An indulgence for Rosneft: why can the dollar now rise to 70 rubles?

President Vladimir Putin signed a law abolishing fines for non-return of foreign currency earnings for sanctioned exporting companies. This measure could seriously weaken the ruble, Raiffeisenbank analysts previously warned.

Details

• The law signed by the president concerns five companies: Gazprom, Rosneft, Zarubezhneft, AK ALROSA and Kristall. It was they who, at the height of the 2014 devaluation, received orders to bring their net foreign exchange positions to the level of October 1, 2014. Of these companies, only one - Rosneft - is currently under sanctions, which means it can take advantage of the law.
• Due to the fact that Rosneft will place the remaining proceeds abroad, the supply of foreign currency in Russia could potentially decrease within a year by anywhere from $25.7 billion to $64.3 billion, Raiffeisenbank analysts previously wrote .

According to Raiffeisenbank estimates, Rosneft’s partial refusal to repatriate foreign currency earnings may

Liana Faizova