Gleb Kuznetsov: "Armenia gives lessons"

“Armenia, of course, gives lessons in an endless stream. They put Kocharyan for the events of 2008. Understanding Pashinyan’s mood, it can be assumed that it will be sitting. For a long time if his Russian friends will not put on Armenia,” the political scientist writes on his Facebook page.

“The next in line is the actual pensioner, a veteran of Afghanistan and a high -ranking Soviet still officer Khachaturov , who is fully prevented by his international diplomatic status in the CSTO. The landing of Khachaturov should give the army a signal that the new power is extremely seriously configured and the epaulettes with epaulets in the adjacent states of the enemies of the people do not respect the enemies of the people.

Even our restrained Foreign Ministry acts in bewilderment: "How so, you promised to build Armenia without information, Wendett and political persecution." Pashinyan replies that this is a) not Vendett, but the prosecution of criminal criminals and b) he, as an exceptional liberal and a democrat, does not interfere in the activities of law enforcement agencies.

Pashinyan generally demonstrates himself not at all a rally talker, but an extremely specific and practical leader. Its agenda: the consolidation of the authorities is the replacement of all regional leaders, somewhere more conflict with "direct action shares" - the capture of offices "peaceful protesters", somewhere "voluntary". With an additional extended effect - the non -participation of RPA candidates in subsequent elections, as is happening in Yerevan, for example.

Next. Criminal prosecution of key people of the previous government. Constant media and strength pressure, endless announcements of landings, fines, ruin and other things. It is curious that the same pressure was and is on representatives of large business, investors.

Thus, the largest mining company Geopromeining in May-June stopped production at the Sotsky golden fervor after blocking by local residents, as usual "indignant injustice." The police did not interfere, since "people have the right to peaceful protest." The situation was settled by a meeting of the company's management with the revolutionary governor of the Ararat region, where the new government was brought in the corresponding Ommage. And for the people, a message has been issued that the insidious subsurcers of the subsoil have overlap and will now better pay taxes and even let the enterprise of the inhabitants of the nearest village into the medical unit, symbolizing the highest level of social responsibility, unthinkable under the previous government

There are ambitions of the formation of a “guiding and guiding” party for “early elections”. Man number two in the Mirzoyan government: "A political force should be formed, which will be based on a system of values ​​of a civil contract, Nikola Pashinyan and Revolution. This force will take responsibility for all changes. Both individuals and political forces can enter it."

The very history of these same "early elections" is a separate curious thing. According to the revolutionary narrative, on March 2, 2018, the Armenians “stole the elections”, “falsified the results” and so on. The people were indignant and “overthrew the criminal power”, only a false, illegitimate, falsified parliament as he was and remained in full force with the exception of those representatives of the RPA who would be imprisoned. At least for a year. I believe that the elections will be dedicated to the anniversary of the revolution, respectively the false, illegitimate, stolen parliament during the year will remain the only formal power in Armenia, fixing all the decisions of "good popular power." That is, the elections will be held not just like that (the main formal requirement of the revolution is “early elections”), but only when it will be convenient for the new government. Logical.

Due to which this equilibrics manage. And here we approach the main lesson of Armenia. Security forces. They were not changed, in some places the first persons were cleaned, nothing more. Ministries, special services, courts and so on - yesterday's deputy took a step up and continued to do what they can. The new revolutionary head of the special investigative service, which is responsible for all these "non -political" cases - the son of a high -ranking judge, a career prosecutor of a high flight.

And so literally everywhere. The new government is effectively based on the old coercion system. On trusted judges, deputies of prosecutors, police officers, special services with good stars on uniform. Moreover, without successfully created by Kocharian-Sargsyan, the apparatus of coercion and political persecution, Pashinyan, obviously, could not feel so confident today.

And implement your plan. Consolidation of power on all floors - from municipal to “political” plus the formation of institutional prerequisites (primarily with forceful methods) to the convincing victory of the force responsible for changes on the so -called "early" elections. Given the populist style of Pashinyan himself, it can be assumed that Armenia is moving towards the left autocracy in the key of Latin American left regimes of the last 20-30 years. And moves quite confidently.

Only external forces can interfere with this movement. Inside the country, the two supports of the regime are a rally “direct legitimacy” with appropriate and so far not excessively expensive populist steps and a strong, experienced, tuned to work with the opposition, the power apparatus creates sufficient stability.

Meanwhile, on August 17, a rally dedicated to the 100 days of the revolution is planned. I believe that the slogans with the requirements of "punish corrupt officials", "plant enemies of the people" and other things in the same spirit will be especially many. And the people's government will be forced to take into account the wishes of the "simple person." The failed cavalry scab on Khachaturov and the irritated reaction to the arrest of Kocharyan showed that repression should be qualitatively decorated with external consumption. And Pashinyan grabs everything on the fly. "