Where is your money?

What will the Putin system do with the budget and pensions in the era of sanctions? Discuss Natalya Zubarevich, Boris Nadezhdin

The Central Election Commission recognized the issues of initiative groups wishing a referendum (Communist Party, "Fair Russia") on the preservation of the current retirement age. But will the signatures be collected and a referendum is appointed? At the same time, United Russia outlined on August 21 a parliamentary hearings before the second reading of the law. The authorities are clearly not going to give in to public opinion and look for other sources for payments of pensions.

What is the money of federal and regional budgets on? How will the US population be affected by new US sanctions? What became the priority of the budget policy of Vladimir Putin? For what, the authorities increase the retirement age at all costs, raised VAT and indirect taxes? Why does Moscow spend on "improvement" amounts comparable to the budgets of entire provinces? How much do Russia Crimea, Donbass and unrecognized by no one except Russia "republic" cost? The doctor of geographical sciences Natalya Zubarevich , lawyer and politician Boris Nadezhdin are discussing.

Mikhail Sokolov is broadcast.

Mikhail Sokolov: The ruble on the morning of August 9 continued to fall in relation to the dollar and the euro at the opening of trading on Thursday. Then he played part of the fall, the shares of Aeroflot and Sberbank fell in price. Cash dollar per day has risen in price by one and a half to two rubles, and the euro by one and a half to two and a half. This is the price of the threat of new American sanctions. It's time to understand whether the system of Vladimir Putin is stable? How the money of federal and regional budgets is spent. In the Radio Studio Liberty, economy-geographer, Professor Natalya Zubarevich, and lawyer and politician, participant in the elections of the election Boris Nadezhdin. Since we are “facing the event”, it remains to ask about the actual: as the standard of living of the population of Russia, will these expected sanctions or expectation of sanctions affect its economy? What do you say, fears are great?

Boris Nadezhdin: Two classes of sanctions are possible, not the fact that everyone will introduce, but the markets have already prepared. The first applies to the banking system, operations with dollars. It was this that influenced the dollar, which so jumped to the level of a few months ago. The dollar exchange rate is as follows in the first place. Because, unfortunately, a significant part of the goods that are produced even in Russia do not say about export, those who produce them use all kinds of components, raw materials, technologies that are bought for dollars, respectively, they will grow. As far as they grow, it will depend on how the ruble plays. It is difficult to predict so far, but from what I read, if the first layer of sanctions is introduced, then the scale of theitance of the ruble can be 10-15%, respectively, prices will increase in a smaller volume, but not 1%, apparently more.

Video version of the program

Mikhail Sokolov: List of restrictive measures that they will affect high -tech spheres, electronics, communications, lasers, sensors, advanced technologies, oil and gas processing, and sanctions to reduce foreign trade can be. If you look at your specialty in the regional context, some regions can suffer significantly, oil producing, for example, or is there any influence here at all?

Natalya Zubarevich: Firstly, the federal budget will win, because oil and the rest of the products are considered at a dollar exchange rate to the ruble, the federal budget will receive more money-this is absolutely for sure. Regions - almost no one lives at oil prices, is not connected. We have two subjects-Sakhalin and Nenets Autonomous Okrug, where there is an agreement on the division of products, there payments are all connected precisely by the "ruble-dollar". The medal does not have one side: someone will win, someone will lose. Exporters will not lose.

Mikhail Sokolov: And technology?

Natalya Zubarevich: They have already been hit on the head with two percentage points of additional VAT. This is not the load on exporters, exporters who do not know, VAT is compensated - this is the load on more technological industries of additional processing. Now also the opportunity to buy will decrease.

Already without these sanctions, even the Ministry of Economic Development, our most positive forecast, he said that next year there will be neither growth in income, nor a noticeable growth of the economy will not be due to the load of additional tax and inflation growth.

I am a supporter to see what they will accept, I'm not nervous. After the 1990s, with our experience, you already cease to be nervous. And I really do not advise you to run to the bank today and change at a bad rate. Wait a few days, maybe they will calm down a little.

Mikhail Sokolov: That is, to believe Siluanov, who said that we are all under control, is this panic and so on?

Natalya Zubarevich: This is not so. I only said what I said. On the psychosis, neither buy nor sell, you need to look a little, and then think.

Mikhail Sokolov: You said about VAT, what was the point of raising it by two percentage points or by 10% in essence, when all those who can count, they say that this will lead to a slowdown in growth and price growth?

Natalya Zubarevich: Naturally, the increase in inflation, prices. We searched about trillion for the implementation of these projects, about which we still do not know anything. That is, they have already found money, and what projects will definitely be and in what sequence they are implemented, we do not really know. This is called to make a stash so that it is.

Mikhail Sokolov: I heard that in addition to raising VAT, they wanted to reduce social payments for business. Nothing was reduced. It turns out that everyone only spoils and spoils?

Boris Nadezhdin: I must say directly that the fiscal load rises in the country. This is from the same series of measures as raising the retirement age. I would like to make ends meet. I remind you that Putin signed a decree on a gigantic completely increase in social benefits.

Natalya Zubarevich: Nothing giant, I beg you. I can say that the mistakes of past May decrees were taken into account when it was promised to increase salaries to state employees, all the budgets of the subjects were broken. This time, decrees regarding the social sphere are the fight against poverty without concretization as. Improving the expected life expectancy, again, it is not very clear what measures. This is the direction. But how much it will cost, because it is not indicated. And you consider the salary on average by the regions, you caught up with or did not catch up with it, mythical average in the regions.

Boris Nadezhdin: Both Siluanov and Medvedev listened with his ears, who said that either 20 or 30 trillion, these numbers sounded, which should be found in the budget. You can disagree with the numbers, but the fact that I heard this with my ears I can’t agree with this.

Natalya Zubarevich: We have the whole program for investments from the budget, the whole amount sounded like 11 trillion rubles for a period of six years. Therefore, there is no question of any social.

Boris Nadezhdin: The fact is that the priorities of the state that are announced, no matter what amounts, social expenses, growth in life expectancy, just all, requires huge additional budget expenditures-this is an unconditional fact. That is why the state is now increasing the retirement age to balance this system. Although, in my opinion, everything is extremely wrong. That is why taxes increase.

Mikhail Sokolov: I do not understand why the state cannot make ends meet now, as you said. Do you have an explanation?

Natalya Zubarevich: Of course. Because now, if you take the level of subsidation of the Pension Fund, 60%, the amount that is required to pay pensions is generally received at the expense of insurance payments of the population, almost 40% is a transfer from the federal budget. Since in our next 5-10 years the number of pensioners will grow very quickly, because a large generation retires, Bolivar decided that he could not withstand this, we must somehow balance the revenues of the pension fund and expenses. There are not many ways, you know.

Mikhail Sokolov: rob?

Natalya Zubarevich: I am not expressed in such words.

Mikhail Sokolov: How to put it? In a million per person - and normal.

Natalya Zubarevich: All countries increased the retirement age.

Mikhail Sokolov: Everything is different.

Natalya Zubarevich: There was only one left for us in the post -Soviet space, if the memory does not change, this is Uzbekistan. They are actively talking about this now.

We do not say that this is not necessary. Question: when to do, how to do, at what sequence and at what pace. The main protest is that people dropped a brick on their heads. No discussion, special operation, therefore such a reaction.

Mikhail Sokolov: It seems to me to make ends meet in some other way. For example, over the past 7-8 years, military spending has grown three times.

Natalya Zubarevich: Not so three times, but they grew up very significantly. It was up to 5% of GDP, now they are returned slowly up to 3.5%. Already in 2018, they were somewhat reduced in the federal budget, decently, I will tell you, they were reduced. There, part of the question is not what was cut, but that they did not have time to make and transferred payments to next year, so such a reduction. I agree with you that the maneuver by budget resources, of course, could soften the whole story. It is made very rude and clumsy.

Mikhail Sokolov: We have different smart people in Russia, they could see those schemes that were to increase the retirement age in different countries. I remember in Germany, there are six months in such steps and so on. Here just a year everyone does not retire.

Natalya Zubarevich: Special operation. The bulk of the claims of experts and the economic community to how it is done, and the second is when.

Mikhail Sokolov: Vladimir Nazarov performed here with foam at his mouth in a hysterical manner shouted, which was not given another, only so, to chop off his shoulder and so on. He is a qualified expert?

Natalya Zubarevich: He is very qualified, although the topic is not mine.

Boris Nadezhdin: Clause one, without denying the inevitability of raising the retirement age in any case, there are many reasons for any, what the government did is completely ugly. People need to talk about such things in advance.

There are no people like us, born in 1950-60. I was born in 1963, my classmates, my first wife, peer, has already retired, she is already 56 years old, and I, as a fool, have to work for 10 years. Is it true?

Mikhail Sokolov: Of course, it is fair, you are a man, you must drag everything on yourself.

Boris Nadezhdin: I could retire in 5 years, and now after 10 - this is a huge difference. Now we take the generation, roughly speaking, 35-40-year-olds, it was necessary to start with them and they should be announced now. When a person before a pension is 20 years old or 25, this is not so important, and when a person is three years old, but they say to him: no, six or ten is a disgrace.

Mikhail Sokolov: This is a broken strategy, I agree with you.

Boris Nadezhdin: And the second thing: dear comrades, let's fulfill all these decrees about healthcare, increase the life expectancy of at least 71, as now, but 75, we will do it, everyone will live happily, happily, the elderly will be healthy, strong people, then let's slowly do it. And this is like snow on the head.

Mikhail Sokolov: How can this be done? For medicine, in my opinion, expenses were reduced year after year.

Natalya Zubarevich: The federal budget was reduced, the consolidated budgets of the regions were not reduced.

Mikhail Sokolov: The number of hospitals decreased sharply.

Natalya Zubarevich: There, it should be considered along with the expenses of federal funds of compulsory medical insurance. Because now for the regions more than half of the money goes through them. Let's finish with pensions, because so much has been said.

Mikhail Sokolov: I want the people to say, and you commented. We have a good survey, today people spoke: they understand what they are doing with them or not.

Poll on the streets of Moscow

Mikhail Sokolov: Are you satisfied with the economic literacy of Muscovites?

Natalya Zubarevich: Partly yes. A very last young man pleased me that finally people began to think about the price of large projects. Because ordinary glee - we are cool, we have it, suddenly, it turns out, they began to think that it costs a lot of money. Do not compare 3.5 trillion annual transfer to the Pension Fund, the entire Olympics, according to official figures, cost us 700 billion rubles. The Olympics began and ended, the transfer every year more and more. Therefore, the inevitability is obvious, it was necessary to do this in zero when the income grew.

Mikhail Sokolov: Let's live today, otherwise I will also remember. Through the VEP, in my opinion, Vladimir Putin paid money from the National Welfare Fund to pay off the external debt of corporations and banks, which, by the way, was not for bankrupt, but for future generations, for the payment of pensions. So stolen? Stole. Dailed? They squandered.

Natalya Zubarevich: I cannot accept the word "stolen".

Mikhail Sokolov: Okay, they supported the bankrupt oligarchs.

Natalya Zubarevich: Let's agree that our state has its own understandable priorities, they are clearly not aimed at ordinary people, they are somewhat different, no one argues with the same. 90% of respondents do not support this reform. They will roll out something, for sure in September there will be a large bargain. Will they have an increase? They will spend, do not go to the fortuneteller. The question is, to what years and at what pace.

Mikhail Sokolov: The power goes here, as they say, through rape, 80–90% of people, that is, the voter against, and the power is rushing and pressing. What they can run into, or people who are non-sounding in Russia, everything will endure, tenses, someone will begin to work, someone, sorry, will steal something, somehow say: the devil with them, with bastards, will not deal with this state.

Boris Nadezhdin: The final version of the pension reform will be. It has never been predetermined even once, the parameters of its rigidity, it seems to me, most depend on how much people will protest.

I well remember the story with the monetization of benefits, blocked roads and so on, and then the reaction was quite tough and the state turned on a lot of things, increased some payments and so on. Now, I say this with regret, I myself participated in the organization in the suburbs of these shares. Universally surprisingly at rallies, it doesn’t matter, the Communists collect, I collect, exactly one thousandth of the population comes. While we will come out one of a thousand, it will be when one of at least three hundred will come out - this is a completely different story.

Mikhail Sokolov: Many people in the referendum believe that they have now missed several questions through this system.

Boris Nadezhdin: I, as a person who has repeatedly tried to hold a federal referendum, tells me something that two million signatures will turn out to be some unreliable if they are generally collected.

Mikhail Sokolov: Maybe the authorities want to hold such a game, they want to win this referendum. They will give the Communists to hold a referendum and win.

Boris Nadezhdin: I will reveal one secret: nothing interferes with the referendum simply without any signatures, initiatives to appoint the State Duma federal law. Remember, when the subjects were enlarged, appointed, and all, no one collected no signatures, took the parliament, voted, appointed. That is, in order to appoint a referendum, the authorities do not need to arrange this circus with initiative groups and so on. I understand this business like this: the Russian society should somehow be able to self-organize and resist those initiatives that he does not like. If it behaves like that, as it is now, they will do with us everything they want.

Mikhail Sokolov: For 18 years, people resist, do everything they want with them.

Boris Nadezhdin: There is a successful experience. The same monetization. Moreover, the authorities actually react, something is recovering, and so on. There were a lot of examples when completely terrifying laws were brought into the Duma, and the United Russia introduced, then a wave of indignation rose, and the good president, we love him, said: no, no, this is not necessary.

Natalya Zubarevich: The last story was with renovation, as we recall, a year ago.

Mikhail Sokolov: And what, it became better with renovation?

Natalya Zubarevich: The law has changed a lot.

Mikhail Sokolov: That is, the rally helped in Moscow on renovation, quite quickly and aggressively.

Natalya Zubarevich: The second reading in the State Duma was very flexed by this completely terrible law, which was drawn simply for the convenience of those who would renovate.

Mikhail Sokolov: We are just approaching Moscow topics, Moscow and provinces. If we caught on this renovation, Moscow will swim in money, spend this money, as you always tell, 10% on improvement, tiles, all these beauties, ten times, shifting the one, this, the demolition of quite suitable housing and the construction of any towers, compaction of development, and so on?

Natalya Zubarevich: I do not know what will happen at the exit with the organization of space. The fact that there will be small apartments - we already know, not Khrushchev, but such a version 2, if you want.

Mikhail Sokolov: From Khrushchev to Sobyaninka?

Natalya Zubarevich: True, the people will hook the tongue, there will be Sobyaninki, for sure. We already see such series.

Moscow in 2017 was a fantastic year. In 2011, the Moscow budget was one and a half trillion, 2017 Moscow graduated from 2.1 trillion - this is a quarter growth. The Moscow region, by the way, is not so sad. If you take the same year 2011, the budget is 370 billion, now 605, that is, the growth is very decent in the Moscow region too. If you look at the shower indicators, although I will make a reservation again, no one in our country can say exactly how many people live in Moscow and the Moscow region. We are called Rosstat numbers 12.6 - Moscow and 7.8 - Mosobalast. In reality, this is at least 20, it is really the largest agglomeration in the country that concentrates every seventh almost a Russian.

What do we have with this agglomeration? The superhoost of Moscow income, in 2017 it is not only our salaries, how much it was well led from income tax. Here I must honestly say that Moscow works very well with property. Moscow also receives income from property owning property, from the rental of property. Moscow has well developed a system of collection of taxes from small business. When they try to say that we are so cool, I say: yes, of course, you are cool, no doubt, the only difference is that in other regions to lift the property tax, patent that you want, for small business, you cannot die right away. And in Moscow, the entrepreneur still has a fat.

Mikhail Sokolov: That is, Moscow is the first world?

Natalya Zubarevich: Yes, this is true. Consider, in Moscow, showers for the population about which Rosstat told us is two and a half times higher than the average in the regions of the Russian Federation. The Moscow region is 25% higher.

Boris Nadezhdin: That is, Moscow Region is twice as poorer than Moscow, if you count a person. I deeply know the Moscow region, I live 50 years old, I have been participating in the elections 30 years. Nearby are two cities - Moscow and my native Dolgoprudny or Khimki, Krasnogorsk and so on, most people go to work in Moscow. About one and a half million according to various estimates, traffic jams, train, minibuses. Why is this happening? Just because in the same sectors and the economy and the social sphere, the salary in Moscow is significantly higher. Moscow, for example, spends twice as much as Moscow Region, respectively, teachers' salaries. Moscow spends four times more on healthcare than Moscow Region.

But how does it happen? The main reason is super -centralization in general, the country's financial and budget system. With us, if you take the consolidated budget all, about two -thirds go to the federal budget, a quarter to the regions, from these regions, remove Moscow with two trillion budgets, nothing will remain at all, there is nothing left in the cities. The Moscow Region cities receive an average of 10 to 20% of the money that will be bloated in budgets on their territory.

Mikhail Sokolov: You live well in the suburbs, you will take some areas that are away.

Boris Nadezhdin: Residents of Dolgoprudny, qualified doctors and teachers, work in Moscow schools, and people come from us, I am not saying that from some republics this is a separate story, come from Tver, Dmitrov and so on. Each layer is shifting, we are to Moscow, Dmitrov, Lobnya - to us, and to Dmitrov go from Tver.

Natalya Zubarevich: What are the most hellish differences in our country, not at all in social expenses. The Moscow region, as a region with not the largest budget revenues, has a socially oriented budget, it takes about 64%, but there is no money for another. And Moscow only at best, there were years when 48%. Accordingly, there are no such hellish gaps on the Socialist, hellish gaps in money for development. If we take the national economy, just look: in 2017, the entire Moscow region was able to spend 15% of its budget on this, in the capital of our Motherland it spent almost 30%. Mosobravost 93 billion, Moscow 611 - this is where the gaps are. In the improvement, the breaks will, excuse me, 10 times. And the territory of the Moscow region is a little larger.

Mikhail Sokolov: Is this all at the expense of the rest of Russia? Does Moscow rob Russia with the federal center?

Natalya Zubarevich: Not really. If you take the structure of the income of the Moscow budget, then last year 42% of all income was personal income tax. I can say that yes, there are money under Muscovites who work in the capital, this is money at the expense of salaries in Moscow a bunch of bureaucracy of well -paid, security forces, medium and higher management of corporations. This is not Moscow, this is Moscow, being the capital of the country from the super-state management system, the capital of the inflated bureaucracy, the capital of the country, which is dominated by a large business with headquarters sitting in Moscow. Accordingly, this is not the city of Moscow - this is the country of the Russian Federation is arranged so that Moscow really has an unprofitable rent of the capital's status.

Mikhail Sokolov: Bureaucracy, according to some estimates, the number of officials has not doubled, as Rosstat says, over the Putin years, over the 18 years, just the 9th number-the date of the appointment of Vladimir Putin in 1999, and 6 times, if you count all the security forces and so on.

Natalya Zubarevich: Bureaucracy-officially according to Rosstat, somewhere in the early 2010s there were more than a million employees who occupy the positions of federal, regional, municipal-this was more than in the Soviet Union at the end of the Soviet Union.

Mikhail Sokolov: They also seize, for example, deputies, different other categories, they have a scam there with the number of bureaucrats.

Natalya Zubarevich: Perhaps. I have such a children's question: the authorities of the Moscow region, if you have so unhealthy with money, what jester of 9% of your expenses do you spend on national questions, on yourself, on the bureaucracy? This is all related to the service of officials of both municipal and regional. And Moscow is 4%, but the amount is still more. The mosquito with its fifty municipalities, with the fanned managerial regional authorities, somewhere there sits and builds in Myakinino what I would like to build. If you spend every 11th ruble of your budget on yourself, so maybe we will discuss this issue.

Boris Nadezhdin: I’m right now, we cannot engage in election campaigning here, of course, but if I were the governor of the Moscow region, I would, of course, put a completely different priority. You must first catch up with Moscow, or at least approach the salaries of doctors, teachers.

Natalya Zubarevich: They take an example from those who control at other levels, and act exactly in the same way. You forgot how in 2012-13 about 90% raised salaries to the security forces by about 90%, and then everyone said: and now we will reduce 10% to higher managers and the rest. Yes, when you were raised by 90%, then you can remove a little.

Mikhail Sokolov: The retirement age of the security forces, by the way, no one touches, no one will encroach on him. They will retire at the age of 40.

Natalya Zubarevich: This is another moment of that bricks of unfair.

Mikhail Sokolov: I would like to ask more about our favorite regions. Dotiations this year, who is now in the leaders? There used to be Chechnya, but now, it seems, Dagestan?

Natalya Zubarevich: 2018, January-May, a holiday of unprecedented generosity, repeating about 5-6 years and strictly coinciding with electoral cycles, an increase in transfers by 12%. If you do not take Moscow, this is a transfer to federal powers, then it will be 13%. Personnel of personal income tax plus 13%, in Moscow plus 16%. Because everyone raised the salary before the election by decree. If we look at what we were spent on - a holiday of social expenses: culture plus 19%, healthcare along with federal medical insurance funds plus 18%, education 9%growth. But this has not happened since 2011, such pace. 2014-16 delayed the regional budgets of the belt, and here such an unprecedented generosity. Of course, Moscow shocked me. If you take an article called social policy, in a simple way-this is social protection of the population, see the dynamics: without Moscow, social payments added a little more than 5%, and Moscow plus 31%.

Mikhail Sokolov: I am all kinds of interest to alignment.

Natalya Zubarevich: You can relax, they do not change. The main special measures do not go through subsidies for alignment, although it is growing up every year - this is true. This is a subsidation for a balanced, it is also given to the supplement to the salary if the regions cannot cope.

We have a subsidation for the balance of Crimea, Sevastopol, Chechnya - registered ones. Answering your question, who is most received from us now, 2017, 119 billion rubles is a budget of a good area, such as Kaluga, Belgorod, these are transfers to Crimea with Sevastopol. We have one champion. 76 billion Dagestan, in second place, somewhere in 62–66, the third place was divided by Yakutia and Chechnya. Here are the main recipients.

Despite the fact that Yakutia is an oil and gas producing region. There, property from the republic is taken out, as well as cash flows. В прошлом году как-то странно сработали "Роснефть" и "Сургутнефтегаз", что сильно упали налоги на прибыль, поступающие в бюджет Якутии. То есть она от этого праздника новых нефтегазовых месторождений пока еще не очень получила. Трансферты ей связаны с понятной историей – гигантская территория, всего лишь миллион народу, поддерживать социальную инфраструктуру надо, все чудовищно дорого. У нее 40% почти дотационности. В Чечне 83%, в Ингушетии 84%, у Крыма 63–64%, у Севастополя 60%. То есть на две трети, а то еще больше, эти территории живут за счет трансфертов.

Михаил Соколов: Дотационных территорий стало больше или их стабильно столько же?

Наталья Зубаревич: Давайте я как профессор скажу – фигня вопрос, по-простому. Как считать. У нас недотационными считаются только те регионы, которые не получают дотацию на выравнивание. Доля этой дотации треть всех трансфертов, недавно была четверть. Они получают субвенции на выполнение федеральных полномочий, они получают разные субсидии. Поэтому дотационность вообще померить нельзя, потому что мы не можем померить баланс, сколько налогов ушло с территории в федеральный бюджет и сколько из всех источников, не только трансферты, министерства же еще тратят, автодор тратит, сколько вернулось обратно. По оценкам умных финансистов раскладка совсем другая. У нас примерно 30-40 регионов по балансу хотя бы ноль или плюс, но этот баланс считать очень трудно, фактически невозможно. Поэтому плюньте на слово "дотационность", оно строго зависит от того, был ли налог на добычу полезных ископаемых, раньше между регионом делился, у нас было 19 недотационных регионов, отняли полностью НДПИ, осталось 10.

Михаил Соколов: То есть если в Московскую область перевести какой-нибудь офис нефтяной компании, она вдруг заживет замечательно?

Наталья Зубаревич: Не сильно они ей добавят. В Москве самые крупные плательщики, если раньше это был "Газпром", потом маячила "Роснефть", самые крупные плательщики налога на прибыль в бюджет Москвы банки – это Сбербанк и ВТБ. Сбербанк суперприбыльный, он фактически крупнейший плательщик налога на прибыль. Но как-то Московская область в пространстве Сбербанка не просматривается, потом офис в Москве. И есть сильное подозрение, что несмотря на то, что надо делить эту прибыль с учетом численности работников, как-то оно все стягивается в столицу нашей родины.

Михаил Соколов: Раньше любили говорить: регион привлекает инвестиции. А сейчас как-то эта тема совершенно исчезла. Регион привлекает инвестиции, где вы живете?

Борис Надеждин: Между прочим, по объемам строительства и ввода жилья Подмосковье превышает все остальное.

Наталья Зубаревич: Я добавлю и хорошее, и печальное. Если взять все, начиная с 2014 года по 2017-й, мы просели инвестиционно, страна просела к 2016-му на 11 с лишним процентов, немножко отыграли в 2017 году, и сейчас минус 8. То есть мы еще не вышли на уровень общих инвестиций в основной капитал 2014 года. Подмосковье, к сожалению, просело, но скромнее, минус 5. Столица нашей родины плюс 15. Питер немножко просел по 2017 году. Ханты, Ямал, то есть ведущие нефтегазовые регионы и крупнейшие центры агломерации. Мы в этот кризис инвестиционно не пострадали, в целом в плюсах. Если мы возьмем, как распределяются инвестиции по стране, вот здесь я могу сказать, что Московская область очень большой сдвиг, но тем не менее, по 2017 году сто процентов все инвестиции в стране, не иностранные, они называются инвестиции в основной капитал, 12,5% – Москва, 15% с копейками – Тюменская область со своими родными автономными округами, Мособласть – 4%. У вас – как у Питера, у Питера те же 4%.

Борис Надеждин: То есть если мы найдем здесь нефть, будем круче.

Наталья Зубаревич: Нет, вам надо просто здесь расширить агломерацию – это отдельная история.

Михаил Соколов: Кудрин говорит, что дальнейшее развитие Москвы представляет угрозу для российских регионов. А Собянин говорит: нет, остановить рост Москвы не удавалось никогда, и так далее.

Борис Надеждин: Было два случая, когда рост Москвы сильно остановился: это когда столицу перенесли в Санкт-Петербург. Перед революцией Санкт-Петербург был раза в два больше Москвы.

Наталья Зубаревич: Потом он останавливался в период гражданской войны, Великой Отечественной. Последний раз – 1992 год, когда население Москвы уменьшилось, люди поехали куда-то даже прокормиться.

Михаил Соколов: А если изменить финансовую систему, они будут возвращаться в свои регионы?

Борис Надеждин: Пока у нас бюджет города Москвы в четыре раза больше подмосковного, я уже не говорю про тверской, – конечно, все будут в Москву ехать.

Михаил Соколов: И что, Вавилон или Лагос будет?

Борис Надеждин: Москва, к сожалению большому, по плотности населения больше похожа не на Париж или Рим, а скорее на Лагос, Калькутту и Шанхай.

Наталья Зубаревич: У нас, слава богу, нет фавел, нет трущоб. Вот это отличие от стран третьего мира и очень существенное. У нас разница только в том, что они прошли урбанизацию "село – город", все это потянулось в столицы, мы прошли этот этап давно. Давайте вспомним, что было в Москве в конце 1920–30-х, коммуналки помним все забитые. Перечитывайте Ильфа и Петрова.

Борис Надеждин: Я еще успел застать коммуналочку.

Михаил Соколов: Давайте вернемся в современность. У меня вопрос такой совершенно тупой: где наши деньги? Куда делись деньги от нефтегазовых доходов? На большие проекты, Олимпиады,чемпионаты, форумы и прочее, на внешнюю политику и что еще?

Наталья Зубаревич: На перевооружение армии, большой очень гособоронзаказ. И на помощь крупным компаниям в период кризисов, съел кризис 2008–9 года очень прилично.

Борис Надеждин: При всем при том, что, конечно, приоритет в путинское время был на военно-полицейские задачи, чистая правда, но по абсолютному размеру наш военный бюджет 3,5–4 триллиона в самом большом варианте.

Наталья Зубаревич: Самый большой был 5% ВВП.

Борис Надеждин: Самый масштабный проект государственный – это пенсии, 8 триллионов бюджет Пенсионного фонда, из которых 5 он собирает взносы.

Наталья Зубаревич: У нас треть бюджета федерального, 33% по 2016 году – это расходы на национальную оборону, плюс на силовиков и остальных, а все расходы на соцзащиту тоже примерно 31%, где большая половина – это трансферт Пенсионному фонду, остальное – федеральные льготники, инвалиды и все прочее. Наш бюджет про сирых и убогих, про пожилых и про военную мощь.

Михаил Соколов: То есть одним хлеба, другим парады, зрелища, мы их упомянули.

Наталья Зубаревич: Это не совсем справедливо, потому что основной груз социальных расходов несут консолидированные бюджеты регионов. Пропорция, если мы не берем таможенные платежи, а только налоги, то расклад будет почти 50 на 50. 52 уходит федералам, 48 идет в консолидированные бюджеты.

Борис Надеждин: Поэтому вопрос, куда ушли деньги, ответ – больше всего денег ушло на пенсии, социальные вопросы, на втором месте силовики. При всем понимании масштаба Олимпиады в Сочи, чемпионата мира – это несопоставимо меньше.

Михаил Соколов: Прокорм всяких сателлитов, протекторатов, Донецк, Луганск, их же много, Южная Осетия.

Наталья Зубаревич: Южная Осетия за пять лет 70 миллиардов.

Борис Надеждин: Дагестан и Чечня настолько больше, чем Донбасс, просто забыть про это надо.

Наталья Зубаревич: Ежегодный трансферт Чечне всегда сидит около 65 миллиардов. На Абхазию с Южной Осетией лет за пять-семь меньше потратили суммарно.

Борис Надеждин: Конечно, надо считать, зачем это надо, но это не те деньги, которые спасут российский бюджет.

Михаил Соколов: Меня заинтересовало то исследование, которое провел Алексей Навальный, сегодня опубликовал результаты. По его оценкам опросным и экспертным получается, что никакой средней зарплаты 45 тысяч в России нет, а на самом деле она 15–16 тысяч.

Наталья Зубаревич: Как меряется средняя зарплата в Российской Федерации? Есть такая форма два НДФЛ. Фонд заработной платы работников и численность на полной занятости, среднесписочная численность работников, там сидит и ректор хорошего вуза, который получает несколько десятков миллионов в год, и его проректоры, и главбух, который будет тоже на серьезных деньгах, и я, профессор МГУ, которая на руки получает 50. Борис показывал картинку, что по Москве средняя зарплата в высшей школе 150 тысяч. Доцент получает 35.

Борис Надеждин: Я могу тоже на своем примере сказать – это же классика. Когда прошли майские указы и повышение, я не физтехе много лет работал на ставку. Потом объявили: отличная новость – повышаются ставки профессоров, доцентов. Но оказалось, что мои часы, если раньше это была ставка, то это стало четвертью ставки. Ставка профессора стала 80 тысяч, а на руки стали получать 20.

Наталья Зубаревич: Это не мухлевка – это выполнение указов единственно возможными способами. Напоминаю, что расходы на высшую школу несет федеральный бюджет. 2015-16 года они сокращались, в 2017-м рост был 2%, инфляция была жутко выше. Here you have the answer.

Михаил Соколов: Так что делать с этой экономикой бюрократического головастика, когда есть гигантская столичная голова и тощий хвост?

Борис Надеждин: Первое, конечно же, нужно проводить децентрализацию глобально. Потому что эта система, когда все в Москву, она в бюджете абсолютно есть. Вторая вещь, которую тоже нужно делать. Товарищи дорогие, конечно, можно налоги повышать, но казна получит больше, если просто будет рост экономики. Если у вас вырастет прибыль на 10%, то вы больше соберете, чем повысите налог на это. Соответственно, нужно меньше административного давления, все эти разборки силовиков, отбирать бизнес, плющить инвесторов.

Михаил Соколов: Научная фантастика пошла.

Борис Надеждин: Когда я буду президентом, Россия процветет.

Наталья Зубаревич: Моя фраза впишется: в данном политико-экономическом цикле ваши предложения вряд ли могут быть реализованы.

Михаил Соколов: А в данном политико-экономическом цикле можно что-нибудь подкрутить, подрегулировать винтики?

Наталья Зубаревич: С налогами точно. Чтобы было понятно: когда высокая цена на нефть, 27% всех собираемых налогов, которые идут в федеральный бюджет, дает один субъект, называется Ханты-Мансийский автономный округ. Москва 15%, Мособласть 4%. Оставить пять-шесть таких, Ямал добавить, остальные – ребята, как-то лучше без вас. Большой децентрализации сделать нельзя. Что можно сделать легко: сейчас все полномочия на регионе, города нищие, голые, пустые. Хватит петь про агломерации при тех доходах, которые имеют города, им оставляют 15% НДФЛ, собираемого на территории города. Ноль налога на прибыль почти везде, ноль налога на имущество юрлиц, один из главных, и ни в чем себе не отказывайте. Уровень дотационности городских округов 58% по 2017 году, они тотального зависят от губернаторов.

Михаил Соколов: Правильно, и мэров не избирают, его фактически назначает губернатор.

Наталья Зубаревич: Все так и сделано. Мособласть, слава богу, хотя бы налог на землю имеет, она там золотая, могут собирать.

Борис Надеждин: Выборы все равно отменили на всякий случай.

Михаил Соколов: Серпуховского мэра Шестуна посадили, а жену его сняли с выборов, кстати говоря.

Борис Надеждин: Почти всех сняли с выборов, я слежу.

Михаил Соколов: Точно так же снимают в Псковской области "яблочников", которые на посты мэров претендуют. Вот такая система. Получается, известно, что можно подправить, подкрутить, но способа нет.

Борис Надеждин: Политическая воля нужна и давление общества на власть.

Михаил Соколов: Так общество спит. Я помню, Наталья Васильевна нам рассказывала про то, как есть Россия разная, в городах-миллионерах, агломерациях вырастет новый прогрессивный класс. А куда он делся?

Наталья Зубаревич: Молодняк пытается, хотя там уровень поддержки Путина столь же высок, как у пенсионеров, они выросли при всем этом, другого не видели. Есть люди, которые пытаются. Но условия, в которых вы сейчас пытаетесь волеизъявлять, как-то сильно жестче стало, цена и риски вашего волеизъявления нынче меряются не сутками, а иногда годами. Люди рациональны. Если тебе секир башка будет на втором повороте, то лучше дома посидишь.

Михаил Соколов: То есть выходить не будут? Будут сидеть и ждать оттепели годами?

Наталья Зубаревич: У меня нет ответа.

Борис Надеждин: Совершенно необязательно выходить на улицу, не приведи господи, перекрывать дороги и так далее. Технологии, 21-й век, петиции надо писать. Я вас уверяю, что если миллион людей подпишется под чем-то, то совершенно другой разговор будет совсем.

Михаил Соколов: Не знаю, я как-то в это очень плохо верю, и в петиции, и в прочие вещи. Власть кушает, продолжает в том же стиле, как все время.

Борис Надеждин: А потому что ты не веришь в русский народ.

Михаил Соколов: Настоящий русский политик должен верить в русский народ.