New US sanctions package

The consequences of the introduction of new sanctions against Russia are discussed by Andrei Fedorov, Konstantin Borova, Andrey Ostalsky and Leonid Martynyuk

• The US State Department imposed sanctions against Russia due to poisoning in the British city of Salisbury former GRU officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia.
• New restrictions will enter into force on August 22. In particular, a ban on exports to Russia that is used in the field of national security is introduced.
• If Russia does not provide guarantees that it will not use chemical weapons, and does not agree to allow international inspectors, the second round of sanctions awaits it.
• New sanctions affect the interests of almost all layers of Russian society, they can seriously affect the domestic political situation in the country.
• Sanctions will be much greater in Russia than in Europe or the USA. Their most dangerous consequence for the authorities is a new social tension.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: The US State Department imposed sanctions against Russia because of the poisoning of former GRU officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia in the British city of Salisbury. The corresponding application is published on the website of the State Department.

We are discussing this situation with politician Konstantin Borov and diplomat, political scientist Andrei Fedorov .

Video version of the program

Andrei Fedorov: Announcement of sanctions, existing sanctions - all this in the complex will probably be the strongest blow to the Russian economy and society over the past 20 years. The sanctions that are announced now, and those that will follow on other occasions, including the Iranian dossier, are for the first time not oligarchic, non -acute sanctions. They affect the interests of almost all groups and layers of Russian society, they are able to seriously affect the domestic political situation in the country, and most importantly, to create insurmountable obstacles to the implementation of all those decrees that Vladimir Putin issued immediately after taking office. In fact, these sanctions can disrupt all plans for modernization, for the development of Russia for the next five to ten years.

In fact, these sanctions can disrupt all plans for modernization, for the development of Russia for the next five to ten years

These are complex sanctions, they can affect each person. As you know, Sberbank, on which the life of our society actually rests, falls into the number of sanctions objects. In Sberbank there is a lion's share of currency savings in Russian citizens. And in all in Russian banks, our citizens hold almost $ 41 billion. And if citizens want to pick up money from banks, then banks do not have such cash. New social tension is what these sanctions are terrible and dangerous for us.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Konstantin Natanovich, today's collapse of the ruble is associated with sanctions?

Konstantin Borova: Of course. This is the reaction of those who work in this market. They began to select tentacles, cease to participate in economic, investment activities, take money. This is a very serious warning - at the first stage, a ban on exporting goods related to the country's national security: this is electronics. Previously, the FSB and the army managed to acquire something, but now all this is closing.

Apparently, the second stage of sanctions is also inevitable. This law applies a delicate formula: guarantees from Russia are necessary. And guarantees are UN experts, they should observe enterprises that, it seems to them, produce chemical and bacteriological weapons. And we are already reaching the level of "country - a sponsor of terrorism", like Iran. Maria Zakharova all the time says that there is no evidence. And now inspectors will come and bring these evidence.

I almost have no doubt that the Kremlin, given its overexcited mood, will refuse to provide guarantees, which means that curtailing will begin. Getting inspectors at Russian facilities means to give evidence that the Novice gas was produced here. Today, the accuracy of spectral analysis is very high, it is possible to determine with an accuracy of 100 meters by the composition of water and soil where all this was produced. And the arguments that were accepted earlier are no longer accepted: "The age of will cannot be seen, we have no relation to this!"

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: We will give the word to Leonid Martynyuk , the co-author of the reports of Boris Nemtsov and political analyst, which now for obvious reasons lives in the United States.

Leonid, what is the likelihood that it was in Russia that the weapons that were trying to destroy the Skripal family were produced?

Leonid Martynyuk: With one hundred percent probability, you will be answered in a few years in court. But the sanctions are introduced now, because the Litvinenko case showed that if you postpone sanctions, then the effect of them will be completely different. While investigating Litvinenko’s cases, Russia was preparing poisoning, the murders of other oppositionists, former special services, who, they believed, betrayed them.

Some representatives of the Russian authorities say that the Skripal case is falsified that these are British intelligence agencies for some reason organized poisoning. And for what reasons could the British intelligence services by order of the British authorities organize a false special operation? This means that this is a conspiracy against Russia. Personally, I do not believe in any similar conspiracy. In the West there are ordinary requirements for all members of the world community: “Follow the laws, trade peacefully - and you will be fine, you will sell any technologies, give loans, and the well -being of citizens of your countries will grow” (which happens with China, occurred with Russia until 2014). But for some reason Putin needed to occupy the Crimea, then organize a war in the Donbass, and now - the Skripals business, interference in the American elections. In my opinion, these are the links of one chain that will hit at one end to Russian citizens, and the other, but much smaller, in the west. Thanks to inadequate actions of the Russian authorities, the West is caused by much less damage than Russian citizens.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: We will listen to the commentary of the journalist Andrei Ostalsky .

Andrei Vsevolodovich, what part of the British society believes that the “Skripal case” is the work of the Russian special services?

Andrey Ostalsky

Andrei Ostalsky: The serious majority of the British confidence in this government information: on the right flank, and on the left, and the centrists, there are practically no discrepancies. But still there is a relatively significant group of people whom I would conventionally call the “trumpists”-fans of the President personally, Brexit fans: they are quite actively attacking government positions, including on this issue. They support Boris Johnson with his recent attacks against the style of Muslim women in clothes, support the extreme right figures known for their nationalism. Just a question was asked the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeremy Hunt on his tape on Twitter: "Present evidence! You have no evidence that this is Russia."

This is a very insidious position, but the Russian government also exploits it, understanding that there is no evidence in such stories at all. It is not possible to fully find exhaustive evidence in political murders carried out by professional special services (with rare exceptions). And in the case of Litvinenko, the performers inherited a lot: they spilled in the Polonium hotel and so on, and more or less managed to prove it with an extremely high degree of probability. In history, there were cases when the killers who received the task of committing a political murder from the Soviet state security organs came to the Western special services with a guess. But such incidents can be counted on the fingers.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: How sensitive is the ban on the export of goods that are used in the field of national security?

Konstantin Borova: Recently, at the seminar, we discussed what Russia received as a result of the beginning of democratic transformations. These are not only loans, the high cost of oil since 2000. The most important thing is lagging behind the rest of the world for 30-50 years, Russia gained access to modern technologies, that is, in a few years we overcame the line of 50 years. We went to the same level with Western technologies and dependent on them. Today's Russian weapons depends on modern technologies. There are modern chips in ATMs. The GLONASS system does not work, but civil aviation uses international positioning systems. We have phones, cameras, TVs. I'm not talking about what was discussed in the early 2000s, about the need to help the Russian special services with modern computer systems to counteract terrorism. All this closes.

At one time, I, together with Andrei Kozyrev, was in Angola. The Portuguese left from there - and Angola froze, even the air conditioners did not change - there was no one to change, there was no import, but there was a revolutionary situation, war, building socialism and everything else. Now this process begins: Russia freezes in today's technological state. This is a disaster!

Andrey Fedorov: This is only one, and not the most important side of the matter. The lack of a chip is bad, but the lack of money at the ATM will be much more serious. Until now, the Americans spared our financial sector, they chose separately Promsvyazbank and so on. But now one of the goals of Americans is Sberbank, which is 100 million Russian citizens. If interruptions in the work of Sberbank begin, it will not be up to chips.

Now we need to find a way out of this situation. We say that we have gold and foreign exchange reserves, a sustainable economy. But our economy can be ruined in a few days. It is enough to arrange the next currency panic, disable Sberbank from the system of international calculations, from operations in currency, it is enough to deprive citizens of foreign exchange savings - and the whole situation will change. These sanctions will have much more serious political consequences than everything that was before.

Leonid Martynyuk

Leonid Martynyuk: What can happen to Russia in 10-20 years if it goes along this path: the occupation of Crimea is sanctions, the war in the Donbass-sanctions, interference in the American elections-sanctions, poisoning of Skripals-sanctions? This way for several decades have been going on Cuba, North Korea, and the last 40 years - Iran. The regime in these countries is held, there is no mass hunger (except North Korea), but in all three countries, life is very uncomfortable for an ordinary citizen. Merps with medical drugs, food, clothing, and other household items occur periodically. If you live in a country like a cube, you are not very good prospects in the future, there are no rainbow hopes that your country is developing, and after 20-30 years your children will live much better than you. No, they will live the same way you, or maybe even worse. Cuba is a very dilapidated country, citizens run from there.

If Russian citizens do not want hopelessness, frozen in the material and technical condition in which they are now, then they must take some measures, put pressure on the Russian authorities, draw conclusions based on independent information, and not on the basis of what propaganda imposes.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: How great is the probability that Russia after the introduction of sanctions will turn into a land country?

When it presses financially, maybe an apolitical Russian citizen will think: "What is happening to us?"

Andrei Ostalsky: If there is a blow to the banking system of Russia, it will be one of the most sensitive, the results will follow immediately. But there is also a secondary level of sanctions. It is likely that if Sberbank is under full-scale American sanctions, then any Western bank that violates them and will nevertheless be in some form to cooperate with Sberbank, will also be subjected to American sanctions. And now we already see on the Iranian example that the entire power of the European Union cannot protect the existing regime of economic relations with Iran. Western companies, fearing a blow from the United States, turn all their contacts with the Iranians and their presence in Iran, even carrying very sensitive losses. The same thing can happen here. It may turn out that even the most friendly Raiffeisenbank will also be forced to close his representative office in Russia and stop all kinds of relations with it.

In this situation there are different forecasts. One of the most stringent scenarios suggests that Russia will have to return to the “wooden” ruble, even abandon the convertibility of the currency and actually turn off all openness of its economic activity.

What will be the political consequences of these economic troubles? There are different points of view. Today, The Washington Post, however, with reference to some Russian experts, writes that even this may not particularly harm Putin. Russian television propaganda works so hard that, quite possibly, the government will be able to portray all these hardships with another manifestation of the syndrome of the besieged fortress and even strengthen the loyalty of a significant part of the population in relation to the government. Time writes about the same thing today.

But there are other opinions: when he still presses financially, maybe an apolitical Russian citizen will think: "What is happening to us?"

Andrey Fedorov

Andrei Fedorov: Yes, the situation is complicated, and it is due to the fact that the sanctions put European financial structures in a difficult situation. Sanctions are being prepared on the Northern Stream - 2 , and it is directly said that any European financial company that will continue to finance it will be subjected to American sanctions. Suppose if Deutsche Bank allocates $ 100 million for the North Stream 2, it may be fined by the United States in the amount of a billion dollars. Naturally, the bank will not give money. New American sanctions can completely cut off the European financial system from us. And the interests of European financial structures are not in Russia, but in the USA and Europe.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: That is, those who believed that sanctions against the whole country were more effective than sanctions, for example, in relation to persons from the Magnitsky List ?

Andrey Fedorov: These sanctions do not affect the interests of the population. Most of the population does not even know about them. The worst thing is when they hit each person’s affection.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: Is confiscation or arrest of property of Russia possible?

Konstantin Borova: This is not only possible, but also very likely, like the inaccessibility of assets that will be in the United States.

The new moment is that the Kremlin’s attempts to somehow quarrel the United States and the EU have not received development. Sanctions are introduced in connection with a chemical attack on the European continent, that is, the United States declare the need to defend Europeans. It is not surprising that within a few hours after that, Teresa May very sharply supported them, and the rest too. In these conditions, it is already impossible to continue to talk about independent policy: large European companies, of course, will join the sanctions, and not only because of the fear of punishing them, but because it is their goal. If we talk about politicians, then the development of the business of the European continent is their voters, people who suffer from the possibility of using chemical weapons and some local events. And there are already several of these events. In the case of Litvinenko, this is the use of nuclear technology, a poisonous substance - polonium, the use of a limited, light nuclear gun. And now chemical weapons.

It is sad that no serious damage to Russian citizens will move power to oncoming steps in relation to the world community. And the situation will develop. Indeed, the most powerful propaganda will turn on. And we have already seen the example of pension reform that the objections of society are simply not taken into account. And behind the second stage of sanctions, it is visible-on the example of Iran-embargo, that is, restrictions on the acquisition of gas, energy resources, and the restriction of the export of some other materials. Everything is very bad.

Vladimir Kara-Murza Sr.: The President of Russia recently recalled the sanctions in one interview. He said that Western Europe suffers more from these sanctions than Russia. What is the percentage of bravado, and what is the percentage of truth?

Leonid Martynyuk: The percentage of bravado - 99, the percentage of truth - 1. The US economy is 20%of the world economy, European - about 25%, Russian - about 2%. This indicates how the crisis will affect economic and trade relations. Therefore, sanctions are imposed. And from the American side they are introduced even easier because Russia is not a large trading partner for the United States.

This is all done for propaganda purposes. Putin tells his voter that he makes the right decisions that the capture of Crimea is profitable. He tells the logic of the 19th century, when the seizure of new territories was really beneficial, and any countries that did this were successful. Но в середине ХХ века, после Второй мировой войны мировое сообщество в лице крупнейших и ведущих мировых держав подписало ряд международных соглашений, цель которых была – предотвратить возможные новые войны, в том числе и мировую войну. Была создана Организация Объединенных Наций. После этого захваты любых территорий, как и отравление граждан на территории других стран, стали очень невыгодны.

Конечно, санкции больше ударят по России. А каким европейцам они могут нанести вред? Таким, как Шредер или группа европейских политиков, которые находятся на подкорме у Кремля, или бизнесменам, ведущим бизнес в основном с российскими государственными компаниями. Но это меньшинство. А большинству бизнесов это наносит или очень слабый ущерб, или совсем никакого.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: В эти дни отмечается десятилетие российско-грузинской войны. Андрей, Европа уже забыла об аннексии Абхазии и Южной Осетии? Или она еще помнит, что из России исходит и военная угроза?

Андрей Остальский: Тут есть разные мнения. Некоторые пишут, что Запад, в частности Европа, крайне слабо отреагировали на то, что тогда сделала Россия. Это и вселило в Кремль ощущение вседозволенности – и пошли все дальнейшие шаги, которые привели в итоге к нынешней страшноватой ситуации.

Но, наверное, большинство и не заметило эту годовщину. А то, что происходит сейчас, в частности отравление Скрипалей, конечно, с огромной силой подействовало на британское общественное мнение. Это очень тревожная вещь, она невероятно беспокоит людей. Но, к сожалению, не так уж многие могут найти причинно-следственные связи, вернуться к тому, что происходило в 2008 году, и подумать о том, что, может быть, и Скрипалей бы не тронули, если бы реакция Запада в 2008-м была другой.

Konstantin Borova

Константин Боровой: Это очень важная тема. Эксперты ООН будут работать, а если им запретят, то это пощечина Организации Объединенных Наций. Россия уже будет объявлена "страной-террористом" и не получит поддержки в ООН. Появляются возможности для обхода права вето России в Совете Безопасности. Большинство стран рассматривают нарушения международных соглашений как дело недопустимое. Я уж не говорю о том, что в связи с этим может очень резко поменяться роль России как члена Совета Безопасности, учредителя ООН.

Андрей Федоров: Для того чтобы миссия Организации по запрещению химического оружия приехала в Россию, нужно решить огромное количество формальностей. This is unrealistic.

Константин Боровой: Я не согласен, Андрей. Соединенные Штаты требуют гарантий, которые в данном случае означают именно присутствие инспекторов Организации по запрещению и нераспространению химического оружия. Это автоматический процесс. Ты говоришь, что они не приедут. Where are they going to go?

Андрей Федоров: Не будет одобрен мандат – и все. This is done very simply.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: В Ирак они не доехали – и вот чем закончилось...

Андрей Федоров: Россия всегда наложит вето в Совете Безопасности на любую инспекцию на своей территории.

Константин Боровой: В том-то и дело, что Совет Безопасности в этом случае можно обойти.

Андрей Федоров: Нельзя обойти решение Совета Безопасности. Есть Россия и Китай – постоянные члены Совета Безопасности, имеющие право вето. Мандат на такую инспекцию и полномочия не будет утвержден никогда.

Выбор для Путина сегодня – это сохранение или потеря власти правящей группировки

Константин Боровой: Это автоматический мандат. Страны, создавшие Организацию по ликвидации и нераспространению химического оружия, подписали декларацию, в которой основной пункт – нераспространение оружия. И организация предоставлена самой себе. Там участвует и России.

Андрей Федоров: Мы там в абсолютном меньшинстве.

Константин Боровой: Это организация, подчиненная ООН.

Андрей Федоров: Но эта инспекция не пройдет. Нас еще ждут санкции за Иран. Сейчас будут вводиться американские санкции против Ирана, а они еще хуже. Иран попадает под асфальтовый каток, и мы заодно - частично. Я считаю, что до конца года нас ждет еще четыре-пять блоков санкций.

Константин Боровой: Имело бы смысл поговорить о том, существует ли какая-то позитивная возможность. Я считаю, что ее нет, потому что, по определению Бориса Немцова, сегодня власть в Кремле, сконцентрированная в руках Путина, неадекватна. Реакция на заявление о санкциях будет очень эмоциональной.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: А еще Россия должна ответить.

Константин Боровой: Предоставить гарантии. Если этих гарантий не будет, если инспекторы не будут допущены за 90 дней, значит, начинается второй этап санкций. Есть ли шанс? I think not.

Андрей Федоров: Шансов нет. Санкций будет много. Законопроект, внесенный конгрессменами, скоро будет принят, а там еще более серьезные санкции.

Константин Боровой: А вдруг возобладает здравый смысл?

Андрей Федоров: Этого не будет! Владимир Владимирович не пойдет на политическое отступление. Я считаю, что будет гораздо хуже. К сожалению, мы сейчас находимся только на первой стадии серьезных антироссийских санкций. Американцы поняли, что санкции против отдельных олигархов ничего не дают.

Константин Боровой: Я думаю, последняя встреча в Хельсинки убедила не только Дональда Трампа, но и его администрацию в том, что Путин не хочет договариваться, тянет время, шантажирует США. И у них остался единственный инструмент – ультиматум. Мария Захарова сказала, что Россия не будет реагировать на ультиматумы.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: И Песков сегодня сказал.

Константин Боровой: Мало ли, что они сказали! В свое время они сказали, что не захватывают Крым, что не ведется военных действий против Украины.

Сегодня они поставлены перед необходимостью выбора. А выбор для Путина сегодня – это сохранение или потеря власти правящей группировки. Ослабление этой власти, усиление демократических институтов в России (о чем говорил Трамп) – это позитивный момент. Может быть, зарегистрируют партию "Западный Выбор".

Леонид Мартынюк: Надо, чтобы зарегистрировали не только одну партию, а множество партий. Это различные независимые политические силы, они должны быть представлены на выборах. И это возможно, ведь у нас уже был пример. Перед войной в Грузии в 2008 году режим организовал фальшивые выборы президента Медведева, его фальшивую либерализацию, демократизацию, телеканал "Дождь", визиты на "Эхо Москвы" различных чиновников, регистрацию различных партий, - реально происходило ослабление авторитарного режима. Некоторые даже мечтали, что Медведев пойдет на второй срок, а потом будут честные выборы. Такая ситуация в будущем возможна, а насколько вероятна - можно только гадать. Это логика выживания режима. Если Путин и его "политбюро", состоящее из друзей детства, друзей по КГБ, Ротенбергов и Ковальчуков, решат, что для режима сейчас выгодно прикинуться более либеральным, то они прикинутся. Но настоящую власть им, конечно, очень опасно отдавать. Если же они решат, что надо замораживать режим, то будут его замораживать.

Пока, с 2014 года по 2018-й, мы видим только замораживание режима, ужесточение санкций, все больше уголовных дел, убийства оппозиционеров, все более конфликтные взаимоотношения с окружающим миром. И Россия не отступает, она идет вперед. Я так понял, что у Путина на данный момент логика такая: "Мы сейчас напугаем и Запад, и своих граждан, и они прогнутся". Так хулиган наскакивает с ножом в темном переулке и начинает запугивать, и тут людям надо или сопротивляться, или отдавать кошелек. Запад не планирует отдавать кошелек, а граждане России, к сожалению, уже сдались. И то, что Дональд Трамп "плавает" в отношении Владимира Путина и режима, и был не очень взрослый в Хельсинки, - это есть. Но в Соединенных Штатах очень много других групп, и большинство настроено на то, что хулигана надо наказывать, и его будут наказывать за все его деяния.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: Андрей, как вы считаете, вырастет ли число политзаключенных, пойдет ли режим по пути ужесточения?

Андрей Остальский: Очень хотелось бы верить, что дальнейшего ужесточения все-таки не будет, хотя логика подсказывает, что это вполне реальный сценарий.

Фактически неизбежными становятся санкции следующей категории, гораздо более болезненные, касающиеся финансового сектора. В этом случае Россия вроде бы окажется загнанной в угол экономически. И обозреватели ставят такой вопрос: "Истинны ли разговоры о том, что загнанный в угол российский режим будет готов на все, на самые страшные реактивные действия? Или это все блеф, игра в покер с целью запугать Запад, которая была свойственна и той организации, из которой вышел Владимир Путин?". Может ли идти речь о военном противостоянии, о мировой ядерной войне? Я лично склоняюсь к тому, что это блеф, покер, и нельзя так уж страшно этого пугаться.

Владимир Кара-Мурза-старший: Мы помним заявление Дмитрия Киселева: "Мы сотрем Америку в ядерную пыль". I hope this will not happen.