Trump hit Erdogan. Why did the ruble fall?

By doubling import duties on steel and aluminum for Turkey on Friday, US President Donald Trump caused the Turkish lira to plummet - nearly 17% on the day. Weakened currencies and other emerging markets, including the ruble.

Details

Trump traditionally made the announcement of doubling duties on Turkish steel (up to 50%) and aluminum (up to 20%) through his Twitter. The US president explained the need for this step by the recent fall of the lira against the dollar and by the fact that Washington and Turkey do not have very good relations now. Thus, the head of state, apparently, hinted at disagreements between Washington and Ankara because of the American pastor Andrew Brunson. The pastor is on trial in Turkey for cooperating with preacher Fethullah Gülen, who is considered responsible for the failed coup attempt in 2016, as well as for supporting the banned PKK. in early August . The US is pushing for Brunson's release, and as Ankara refuses to make concessions, sanctions were imposed on two Turkish ministers

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1027899286586109955

to the news about the doubling of duties The Turkish lira responded by falling by 16.9% (a record fall in 17 years). And in just the last week, the lira has fallen in price by almost 20% and by 43% - over the past month and a half.
The fall of the Turkish currency was reflected in the markets of other countries. The European Stoxx Europe 600 index lost 1.1%, the German DAX - 1.9% (Germany is Turkey's largest foreign trade partner), and the US S&P 500 - 0.5%. The euro fell to $1.1410 (a 13-month low), losing 1% against the dollar. Emerging market currencies have weakened.
Could not calm the markets and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who delivered a speech in the province of Bayburt. He stated that the shady "economic lobby" and Western rating agencies are trying to undermine the Turkish economy, but "Turkey will not succumb to economic hitmen", and called on the Turks to buy the national currency: "If someone has dollars or gold under their pillow, they should go and exchange them for a lira. <...> This will be the answer of my people to those who launched an economic war against us.” And a few hours before the increase in tariffs, the Turkish leader spoke in the Black Sea city of Rize, where he told citizens: “Various campaigns are being carried out against Turkey, do not pay attention to them. If they have dollars, then we have our people, law and Allah.”

What does this mean for Russia?

Russia is the third foreign trade partner of Turkey (after Germany and China). And now it will be more difficult for Turkey to pay for the export of Russian goods, since all payments are made in dollars, says RusEnergy analyst Mikhail Krutikhin. Russian exports to Turkey will now decline, while Turkish imports to Russia will increase, Kirill Tremasov, director of the analytical department at Loko-invest, agrees. According to Krutikhin, the devaluation of the lira may even affect the construction of the second branch of the Turkish Stream.
The positive side of the devaluation of the lira may be that Turkish goods imported to Russia will become cheaper, Tremasov said. Turkish resorts should also become more accessible to Russians. All articles of Russian exports to Turkey and Turkish imports can be viewed here .

However, there is a factor that can outweigh all the positive bonuses from the devaluation of the lira. The situation in Turkey increases the flight of capital from emerging markets, including Russian. And the ruble has already felt it. On Friday evening, the dollar rose to 67.68 rubles, having strengthened by more than a ruble in a day. “Today's collapse of the ruble is the market's reaction solely to Turkey,” says Tremasov.

Egor Sonin, Liana Faizova