Fell. Squeezed

Economist Oleg Buklevshev - how the ruble reacts to American sanctions

On August 22, the United States introduced a new package of sanctions against Russia: from today, American companies are prohibited from selling Russia's dual -purpose products, which can be used as a military. The supply of electronics and technologies for the oil and gas industry is prohibited. New restrictions are officially associated with the American authorities with the investigation of the case of the poisoning of ex-colonel GRU Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia in British Salisbury. The State Department, following London, accused Russia of poisoning, saying that it violated the norms of international law using chemical weapons.

If Russia within 90 days from the date of administration of sanctions does not provide guarantees that it does not plan to use biological and chemical weapons in the future and refuse to cooperate with international experts in the case of poisoning, the second package of sanctions will be imposed. It includes a much more serious list of restrictions: a ban on lending to Russian companies will be introduced, Aeroflot flights in the United States will be suspended, the American side may break diplomatic relations with Russia.

The Russian currency has already responded to the project of new sanctions in early August and now continues its fall. To date, the euro exchange rate at the Moscow Exchange for the first time since 2016 has exceeded 78 rubles, the dollar rate was 67 rubles.

Economist Oleg Buklevshev told “New” that he was waiting for Russian markets and a ruble in connection with a new package of American sanctions.

Oleg Buklemyshev, Associate Professor of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. Photo: RIA Novosti

- Today's sanctions are an intermediate stage. Materially - this is a very small portion regarding what has already been introduced. The problem is that the inertia of constant tightening of restrictions introduced against the Russian Federation has already been created. And as for the second main package, now everyone has a expectation - "tomorrow it will not be better, it will only be worse." The situation is also aggravated by the fact that it is not entirely clear what Russia needs to do to stop it. In conditions - either nowhere are the things, or obviously impossible.

What should the Russian leadership swear and what measures should be taken so that the topic of interference in the elections is removed from the agenda? Or to close the theme of chemical terrorism? Yes, in conditions there are absolutely unacceptable things related to the monitoring of Russian objects, which Russia has never agreed and, apparently, this time will not agree either.

What is happening now with the ruble is not a reaction to today's events, but rather to the prospects of the sanctions process. To stop it, by a greater account, it is necessary to form a new confidence in the Russian Federation, and the soil is not yet visible for this. Therefore, ruble problems will continue in the future. And, apparently, our currency will shy away from side to side, especially in the light of a relatively new policy of the Central Bank (put into force at the end of 2014).

After all, the central bank in the auction in the foreign exchange market does not interfere. Therefore, we are guaranteed such high volatility.

Moreover, the ruble will download from side to side in connection with the new expectations of the players, and if new negative news will come.

In particular, whether the next sanctions of the acquisition of foreign investors are especially important - Russian duty expressed in rubles. If this happens, of course, the ruble does not say goodbye. So far we are only dealing with expectations.

As for the second package, most likely it will be introduced. You can live with all this, and bypass what you can get around, but in medium -term terms it is all extremely painful. This changes the behavior of economic agents who see a funnel of constant deterioration of the situation with sanctions. And in fact, this entails an increase in the costs of domestic economic agents. The sanctions, no matter what are directed and no matter how smart they may be, still affect Russian legal entities and individuals. Ultimately, everything responds to these persons, tightening the living conditions.

Accordingly, business conditions will be worse, private individuals will also live worse, in connection with the introduction of new sanctions.

And this is a recipe for economic stagnation - not to invest, not to make far -reaching decisions in the consumer market. In such conditions, people will be careful, saving money for a rainy day, and this, of course, is not good for existence in the modern world that develops dynamically. At the same time, the Russian state shows us an example of how it also tries to withdraw as much as possible and pick up funds, which by VAT, which through pension restrictions - all this leads to the clamp of the economic situation on the other hand.

From the editorial office
Frozen assets. Messages about American sanctions appear and disavow every day
Nervousness to participants in the Russian financial market add more and more new reports about the development or point of use of American sanctions. First, the US Treasury Department announced the freezing of assets “for billions of dollars”.
It was about the money of Vekselberg and Deripaska in Cyprus. The businessmen themselves have not yet publicly confirmed this information. Cyprus, reports the US Treasury, “remains a jurisdiction that is concerned in terms of laundering of Russian money,” and it is difficult to argue with this. However, it is difficult to agree that this money was washed by Deripaska and Vekselberg and with the freezing of their assets the problem will be solved. It is also not clear how this can affect the “change in the behavior of Russia”, which the authors of the US sanctions initiatives call their main goal. So far, the main reaction of our government was the provision of Deripaska and Vekselberg companies of more and more preferences in the domestic market. If the plan is to gradually make this support so large -scale that it will undermine the budget and social stability, then this will have to wait a long time.
The second message was replicated from the supply of Reuters and concerned freezing of 5 billion Swiss francs in Credit Suisse. The bank quickly clarified that this is not about frost, but about “advertising”, that is, a change in the legal status of assets belonging to unnamed Russians. Of course, the Swiss keep a banking secret and do not specify whether it is again about Deripaska and Vekselberg or about someone else. The fact that so far these people have not lost their money, just billions are no longer “under the control” of Credit Suisse, but are on the accounts there.