The conversations are in the rear

The state and business are looking for survival strategies under American sanctions

In August 2017, the US Congress adopted the bill “On Combating the opponents of America through sanctions” (Caatsa), which equalized the status of Russia with Iran and the DPRK. This document became landmark, since the whole world understood:

Despite the Kremlin’s alleged friendship with Donald Trump, anti -Russian sanctions are seriously and for a long time.

Caatsa prepared the soil for new restrictions that Congress should take in the coming November.

The sanctions car started gradually: the first serious victims had to wait 8 months. There was enough time for preparation, but for some reason the scale of threats realized in the Russian government only after the stock markets in April lost several trillion rubles of capitalization in April, and a number of Russian defendants in the Forbes list were billions of dollars.

There was information that the authorities calculate the consequences of tightening sanctions, up to the disconnection of Russia from the interbank payments SWIFT, and discuss the creation of a special body that would coordinate the help of injured oligarchs. In July, the Ministry of Finance even appeared a special department for countering sanctions. In recent days, these discussions have resumed with renewed vigor - it is still unknown what restrictions will be introduced in November by the United States and the EU, but they will probably be more dangerous than the previous ones. Let us analyze the main steps that the Russian authorities and business are taking to strengthen their financial rear.

Quantum technologies of the Council of Ministers

According to RBC, the consolidated plan of Russia's reciprocal measures for new sanctions initiatives is prepared by the Security Council, the chairman of which is Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Central Bank, Vnesheconombank, Rostec and other state structures presented their proposals to the Council of Ministers.

To build an economic program, even if there are political prerequisites in it - this is the business of the government where there are suitable professionals, and not the Council of People's Commissars, according to Oleg Buklevshev, an associate professor of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. “The word“ security ”, as a rule, erases all economic considerations in favor of the position“ We will not stand at the price ”. In the economy, it is impossible to act like this, the expert recalls: "Each action has its own price."

One of the points of the “Council of People's Commissars” proposes to include a reservation in all international agreements on the inadmissibility of the use of American law and the substantiation of force majections of US sanctions. In this way, the authorities want to deal with secondary sanctions that threaten all counterparties of suction companies. Theoretically, the federal law with this content can be adopted, but this norm should not apply to concluded agreements in which the types of force majeure are already spelled out, says Paragon Advice Group, Alexander Zakharov. “The law may oblige to bring all existing agreements in line with it, but then we can see a review and termination of a significant number of contracts through the court,” the lawyer believes.

Most likely, most of the partners will not want to confront with the American side. There are countries such as Türkiye or Iran - they cannot use American law and pay in dollars, so this measure can be considered as “soft diplomatic mutual support”, Zakharov said.

The plan also has a mention of the development of "alternative systems of international calculations based on quantum technologies." This item most likely implies that European partners will take part in the development of financial instruments that will allow to bypass US sanctions. But it is not very much believed in this prospect: the economic relations of Russia with the EU are still limited by the trade embargo, and the results of the Skripals case investigate do not leave hopes for an ambulance.

“These are the marginal things that we raise to the flag. You should not exaggerate the disagreements inside the Atlantic Bloc: it is much easier for them to achieve a consensus among themselves than to build some artificial systems is not clear for what, ”Buklemishev believes.

At the same time, the very idea of ​​an alternative payment system reflects important shifts in the global financial system, which begins to break up into segments as a result of accelerating the processes of deglobalization. Nevertheless, we are not talking about protection against sanctions, but about the distant prospect of the development of monetary relations, says Alexander Losev, CEO of the Satellite -Office of Capital.

“In order for alternative payment systems to appear, it is necessary that the share of the dollar in international trade decrease at least half from the current 80%. In addition, our main exports are exchange products (raw materials, metals) that are traded in dollars. ” You can unilaterally go to other currencies, but for this it would be necessary to pay a significant commission to intermediaries.

Pluted belts of the Ministry of Finance

The attention of the Ministry of Finance is now riveted to the market of the Russian public debt, the outflow of foreign investors from which has been going on for a long time. Deputy Minister of Finance Vladimir Kolychev recently stated that the monetary authorities are ready to support the market and begin the redemption of their own obligations if the prices and profitability of OFZ are reached critical values ​​(this situation is likely if sanctions are common for these papers). The ransom of their own debt obligations is a normal stabilizing measure, to which different countries resort from time to time, says Buppleyshev. But it is important to remember that it has a “fire” character and is designed for one -time use that smoothes the collapse of public debt papers and prevents the spread of panic to other financial market sectors.

The entire complex of funds by which the government’s economic unit will respond to sharp fluctuations in the market is now difficult to predict, says Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory of the Institute for Applied Economic Research, Ranchin. Most likely, in addition to the early redemption of OFZ (including directly with the money of the Central Bank), a more complex weapon will be used, which includes an increase in interest rates and other elements, the expert believes.

According to Losev, the Ministry of Finance’s policy remains the main mystery for the market participants, which in September will continue to purchase currency to replenish reserves.

“Why arrange such a ruble devaluation with the help of currency interventions, and then come up with some stabilization mechanisms and redeem your debt obligations?”, The economist is perplexed.

In addition to preparing tactical interventions, the government also implements a large strategic plan. Although the increase in VAT, the retirement age shift, the introduction of the budget rule is not directly related to sanctions, all these measures are fed into the general context of the budget preparation for large -scale economic shocks. All recent months have been putting on the budget of new reserves, Abramov believes: “Now the main thing for the Ministry of Finance is to continue to delay the belts, reduce the borrowing program and do something with the budget expenditures.”

Fictive diversification in the Central Bank

At the end of July, the media reported that the Russian Central Bank got rid of 84% of its investments in the papers of the American public debt. Back in March, the Central Bank and other Russian residents belonged to US Treasuries in the amount of $ 96.1 billion, and in May the volume of ownership was reduced to a historically low plank - $ 14.9 billion. This measure is aimed at preventing the consequences of possible tightening of the sanctions, experts say. But if you are selling one type of asset, you must shift the released funds to another. “There are few alternatives to the US Treasury papers: either some kind of“ synthetics ”, more expensive and risky, or other currency, which violates the normal diversification of your portfolio of investments, or gold, which is not a good asset against the background of an increase in interest rates,” Buppleyshev extends.

When sanctions rhetoric is heated, the pressure on the Central Bank naturally increases due to the fact that it buys the debt obligations of our “enemy”. But there is also market logic in this solution, Losev notes: the Federal Service rate rate cycle continues, the next meeting of which will be held on September 26. After that, the bonds that turn on the market will begin to lose in price, so it is reasonable to get rid of them in advance, the expert says.

However, according to one version, there was no mass reset of the American public debt at all: the Central Bank simply re -registered part of the investments on legal entities formally not related to the state. Presumably, the assets were on the Kaiman Islands and in Belgium, and now the American authorities will not be able to reach them. “The issuer can formally install the owner of the paper, but it may not always prove that the owner acts in the interests of third parties,” Zakharov explains.

The oligarchs in the pan

By April sanctions, rich Russians approached clearly unprepared: they could not change the supply chains in advance and establish their affairs with European banks. But in November, it will definitely not be able to refer to surprise. Therefore, Roman Abramovich with other co -owners of Evraz reorganized the company's shareholder and reduced his share in a number of other assets. The same thing with some late is done by Oleg Deripaska and Victor Vekselberg.

“From what can be seen in the public sphere, only two people successfully reorganize their assets to exclude opportunities for the extraterritorial application of sanctions: these are Usmanov and Abramovich,” says Zakharov.

However, if the oligarchs left their assets in dollars, then they remain at the risk zone - each non -cash dollar is controlled by the Fed and can be frozen, Losev twitches. The most “conscious” businessmen come out of the dollar and risky investments that are under their control, and investments in the United States are re -registered to the stand -up structures.

The worst thing for business is that you have to fear not only Western regulators, but also their native government. The Ministry of Finance comes up with a strategy to mobilize excess cash savings in the economy - liquid assets of companies by almost $ 600 billion, which, for various reasons, are afraid to invest in investment projects. “All wealthy businessmen should now think about what will happen to their funds that“ hang out ”in accounts and do not participate in the internal economic turnover of Russia,” says Abramov. -

The initiative of Belousov is the first signal: “We can select this money if you do not invest it voluntarily.”

In such a situation, large capital is driven into a corner. One proven tool remains: offshore. The flight of Russian money to the most tax harbor, according to the results of the first quarter, increased by 6 times - to almost 1 trillion rubles. But this channel is rapidly collapsed as the transparency of the global financial system increases.