Electoral reversal

The authorities mistakenly think that Navalny is their main problem

The events of the last week have shown that for the first time since 2014, there has been a serious change in the mood of the majority of the population in the country. Including the one that was inspired by the Crimean campaign and the revival of pseudo-imperial consciousness. Obviously, the reasons for this turning point were not the protest actions of Alexei Navalny, but the actions of the Russian authorities themselves. The Navalny factor, which for many years was considered the main threat to stability and which the Russian authorities were so afraid of in a panic, faded into the background. In the context of the ongoing economic crisis, careless decisions and actors of power become for itself a much more serious and more real risk factor.

Started by the authorities - and immediately after the triumphant presidential elections, where 76% of citizens supposedly had confidence in the president - the pension reform had a very serious impact on the mood of voters. At the same time, the announcement of an increase in the retirement age, in other words, the withdrawal of citizens' planned income, which sounded like a bolt from the blue for many, was superimposed on the growing anxiety of Russians due to economic problems.

The unimportant situation in the economy, the fear of its deterioration in connection with the ongoing (and for a long time) sanctions pressure, unclear prospects - up to the fear of the emergence of some kind of global military conflict involving Russia - all this turned the general “hooray!” sample of 2014 into the current psychological fatigue. The ongoing escalation of the situation from TV, pseudo-patriotic rhetoric, and the search for external enemies only exacerbated the situation. Immediately after the Crimea, the people, having fallen into euphoria, expressed their readiness to "tighten their belts", but still not to the extent that is proposed by the pension reform today. The latest survey by the Levada Center showed that 72% of citizens are worried about rising prices, 52% about poverty and impoverishment, 48% about rising unemployment, 30% about the crisis in the economy and stratification into rich and poor.

The elections on September 9, of course, cannot be called a complete failure for the authorities. But the tendency to change moods is obvious. For the first time since the return of the elections of heads of regions in 4 out of 22 regions, representatives of the party could not immediately defeat their opponents. The second round should take place in the Vladimir region, the Republic of Khakassia, Primorsky and Khabarovsk territories. In elections to legislative assemblies, United Russia won up to 50% of the vote in 11 out of 16 regions where elections were held. The same result was obtained by United Russia in 10 out of 12 regional centers where the elections of city dumas were held.

It is significant that, compared with the previous elections, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation collected more votes in its favor, which even bypassed United Russia in three regions - in the Irkutsk, Ulyanovsk regions and Khakassia. This just confirms the conclusion that plans to raise the retirement age have become an important factor in changes in electoral sentiment. It was the Communist Party of the Russian Federation that actively held rallies and actions against pension reform throughout the country.

It is also interesting that small non-parliamentary parties received several mandates in different regions. In Yakutsk, a candidate from the Renaissance of Russia party was elected mayor. There is a protest vote, and this is clearly not the merit of the newly arrested Navalny, whose activities occupy the minds of mainly teenagers and young people. The main part of the 40% of those who voted on average in the country (data from the Central Election Commission) are traditionally state employees, who always, as they say, "took a salute."

The Russian authorities do not seem to have fully realized their decisive role in changing the mood of the electorate and the future consequences of this miscalculation. Concern about Navalny’s protest actions on election day, which most of the population has not heard of (not everyone knows the Internet, and his name is taboo on TV), is still almost in the first place in the minds of Kremlin tacticians. So General Zolotov unexpectedly made strange statements - threats and challenging the opposition to a duel.

Navalny's commercials posted on YouTube calling for protests on September 9 caused such excitement in the authorities that the Central Election Commission, Roskomnadzor, the Prosecutor General's Office and the Federal Antimonopoly Service in early September sent a unanimous demand to Google to block the display of these videos - they say advertising mass events on election day violates Russian laws. Despite the dubiousness of the claims, even from the point of view of Russian laws (Navalny did not participate in the elections, voting did not take place in all regions, in some the actions were agreed with local authorities), Google blocked the videos. Perhaps the main role was played by the very comical-looking statements by Russian departments that Google is thus carrying out "interference in elections in our country."

In modern Russia, even despite the loss of the ruling party in some regions, it is still not easy even for an American IT giant to intervene and influence elections. So, almost all the “acting” sent by the president to the regions were nevertheless elected, and in the elections to the regional legislative assemblies, United Russia, according to the CEC, eventually received 472 mandates in total according to party lists and single-mandate constituencies. It is followed by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation by a wide margin - 160 mandates, then the Liberal Democratic Party - 73 mandates, "A Just Russia" - 50 mandates.

The CEC and the presidential administration proudly report that there is free competition and that the party in power, as Ella Pamfilova, the head of the CEC, said, "did not try to put pressure on and use administrative resources, behaved delicately."

The administrative resource - let's be honest - could hardly disappear overnight. But United Russia clearly has some other unknown resources and nanotechnologies, which, for example, made former American mixed martial arts fighter Jeffrey Monson, who had just received Russian citizenship, become a deputy of the City Duma of Krasnogorsk near Moscow. The people's choice almost does not speak Russian, but, according to RBC, he has a passport of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic and is a business partner of the owner of the only legal casino in the Altai Territory.

Considering that the authorities are not going to deviate from plans for pension reform, albeit slightly, things in the economy and international relations are unlikely to improve, the standard of living will not grow in the short term - the growth of public discontent will only increase. How sustainable this trend is, time will tell and the September 2019 elections will show. Elections of governors are planned in 16 regions, elections to legislative assemblies will be held in 13 regions. Elections to municipalities will be held in St. Petersburg, and elections to the City Duma will be held in Moscow.

The authorities will have to seriously take care of the mood of the electorate, half of which, according to a recent survey by the Levada Center, no longer trust the main propaganda resource of the authorities - television, and not try with all their might to "neutralize" Navalny's activity and forcefully disperse protests throughout the country. This will not make them any less.