Sticks in US wheels

Moscow and Tehran will remain forced by strategic partners, primarily in Syria, despite their growing rivalry in the global oil market and other events that have recently led to an increase in mutual stress in Russian-Iranian relations. The main factor that cementing this alliance does not change - the undisguised dislike for the United States shared by the leaders of both countries.

The noticeable growth of disagreements between Moscow and Tehran has recently been indicated by many Western experts and publications, for example, the American Wall Street Journal . Since November 4, Iran should be carried out by economic isolation and fall under the most severe sanctions introduced by the United States. Washington threatens to introduce unilateral restrictive measures in their mutual trade with all countries, primarily with EU members, which will continue to purchase Iranian oil. Against this background, Russia increases the production of hydrocarbon raw materials, which leads to an even greater decline in prices for it, lures buyers of Iranian oil, such as Italy or Greece, and also, for example, expands trade, including weapons, with Saudi Arabia and Israel, the worst enemies of Tehran. Wall Street Journal concludes that a military alliance between Russia and Iran gives way to hostile economic rivalry.

The authorities in Tehran believe that Russia, increasing the volume of oil production, uses Iran’s heavy position. Last Sunday in Algeria, at the meeting of OPEC representatives, the opinions were heard that the oil deficiency in the world market after the entry into force of American sanctions against Iran could reach 600 barrels per day. At the same time, Tehran is confident that Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be able to quickly compensate for this deficit, despite the calls of the US president for OPEC states to increase oil production to reduce prices. Already now, Iranian oil exports fell by about 40 percent, and after November 4, according to forecasts, it will be reduced to only 1 million barrels per day.

Donald Trump in his speech on September 25 at a session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Iran again sharply criticized. According to him, the 2015 International Agreement with Iran on nuclear disarmament was a mistake, since it allowed the Islamic Republic to significantly increase its military budget. “Iran sows chaos, death and destruction,” Trump said and repeated that new sanctions would be imposed against Tehran soon. In response, there, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, called Trump, a violator of obligations taken by the United States and "bullying". Rowhani added that Washington’s exit from a nuclear agreement and “illegal American unilateral sanctions” are one of the forms of “economic terrorism”.

At the same time, as Wall Street Journal believes, Iran must also indignant in connection with the “unworthy” behavior of Russia, his ally, and the discontent of the Iranian leaders is connected not only with competition with Moscow in the oil market, instead of the allegedly expected support for the Kremlin in this area. Russian troops in Syria refuse to cover the Iranian objects from air strikes by Israel, as recent events related to the destruction by mistake by the air defense forces of Bashar Assad Russian Il-20 again showed. At the same time, the volumes of mutual Rosia-Israeli trade last year increased by almost a quarter. In addition, the Wall Street Journal recalls that Russia in 2017 agreed with Saudi Arabia, another worst enemy of Iran, on the sale of S-400 air defense systems that are superior to the older S-300 systems delivered by Tehran.

So is the contradictions between Moscow and Tehran to date so strong? And are they able to shake the Russian-Iranian military-political alliance that has prevailed in recent years, resting on two powerful factors-the need to jointly maintain the viability of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and the revealing leadership of both states everywhere and with all forces to confront the United States? About this in an interview with RS is argued by the political scientist-military person Mikhail Magid :

-Firstly, is the Iranian oil industry really in a completely deplorable state really?

- Of course, and this did not start today, it is the result of long American sanctions. The Iranians have everything bad with technology, they have very costly production, the cost of oil is about twice as much as in Russia. They went on a nuclear deal precisely because they counted on Western investments in their economy, on new technologies that will allow them to develop the main export industry - oil. And the abolition of a nuclear transaction inflicts a terrible blow on their economy. When the deal was concluded, they were able, using the available capacities and technologies, to increase oil exports by about two times, but they were not able to more.

- On November 4, when the American "oil sanctions" come into force that a complete collapse will come?

- No, there will be no complete collapse, because Tehran learned to survive in the conditions of sanctions. They will be able to continue to sell part of their oil abroad, but exports will double. Given the fact that in Iran there is high internal political turbulence and mass protests are constantly taking place against the regime, including for socio-economic reasons, I am not sure that Iran will be able to survive this blow, in the long run. However, all this does not mean that the regime in Tehran will fall immediately. He can still exist for a long time, but - being in critical condition.

Panama oil tanker in one of the ports of Iran. July 2018

- Russia and Iran in this situation really turned out to be irreconcilable competitors in the market for their hydrocarbons and Moscow lures from Tehran its buyers?

-A few months ago, negotiations were conducted between the administration of Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia that it was the Saudis that would take the share of the oil market, this is about one and a half to two of the barrel of oil per day that Iran would lose. And these negotiations were quite successful. Therefore, the matter does not look at all so that only Russia will receive the entire oil market that Iran will leave. Most likely, this market will be divided between the Saudis, Russia, perhaps, some other OPEC countries. Still, Iran and Russia are binding a lot, although there really is cooling between Iran and Russia.

Iran and Russia are binding a lot, although there really is cooling between Iran and Russia

The first of the unifying factors is that in Syria, the Assad regime is still very unstable. The Alawit family of Assad, who controls Syria with dictatorial methods, causes hatred. It is popular only among the Alawites themselves and the Christian and Sunni population of Damascus and some other areas. This regime can last in power only thanks to the presence of foreign troops. We can call it occupation, we can gently "presence", but this does not change the essence. 60–65 percent of the territory of Syria, which is controlled by ASAD, are actually divided between Russia and Iran into zones of influence. And without these forces, Assad will be difficult to maintain power, taking into account the great hatred that the Sunni population of all Syria experiences for him. Therefore, Russia and Iran will continue, perhaps, for a very long time, to maintain its military presence in Syrian territory. And this means that Russia and Iran are still in Syria with allies.

Minister of Defense of Iran Amir Hatam visiting Bashar al -Assad in Damascus. August 2018

Another important factor: the Kremlin stubbornly believe that Iran is such a stick that is always inserted into the wheel of American politics, which Iran interferes with the United States very much (this is really so), and therefore, supporting the "Ayatoll", you can influence Washington's position. Iran remains, from this point of view, a very important tool of the entire Russian foreign policy. And so I would not talk prematurely about some rupture of Russian-Iranian relations. Although there is certainly cooling. And it is caused not only by oil transactions.

- Yes, there is an opinion that the oil market is not the only area where Moscow and Tehran are competing with each other. After all, Russia is successfully trading with the enemies of Iran with a weapon?

- Yes, indeed, negotiations are underway on military transactions between Russia and Saudi Arabia, yes, the volume of trade between Russia and Israel is growing. And the agreement between Russians and Israelis in Syria remains in force. When Israeli planes make raids on Iranian objects there, and they do it very often, Russian air defense systems refuse to shoot at Israeli aircraft. And this position of Moscow is very annoying Tehran. Iranians say: "What are you allies if you do not protect us from Israeli raids, why then are your air defense systems deployed here?"

-As for the hypothetical cover of Iranian objects and military personnel from air strikes from Israel, now, after the death of IL-20, can everything change?

- No. Russia can only put the Assad of the S-300 system, negotiations are being underway now-and probably this will be the whole answer that the Kremlin promised to Israel. Russia, in principle, is not ready to enter into an armed conflict with someone who is stronger than Ukraine! The armed confrontation with Israel, which has the most powerful Air Force in the Middle East, is generally the most powerful army in the region, and has such weapons, which Moscow does not have, it would be so dangerous for Russia that it is unlikely that the Kremlin will go on. Everything then can simply turn out for the Russian army, roughly speaking, another tsusima. No one in Moscow will take this risk!

Whenever there was a threat of armed confrontation with someone who is stronger than Ukraine, Russia did not go to military confrontation

Whenever there was a threat of armed confrontation with anyone who is stronger than Ukraine, Russia did not go to military confrontation. When Türkiye shot down a Russian attack aircraft (and, unlike what happened now, it was a conscious attack), Russia responded with a ban on tomato imports. When the US Air Force in February this year bombed a huge column of Iranian-Asadi forces, where from several dozen to several hundred Russian mercenaries were located, Moscow was not even recognized by the very fact of their stay in Syria. And when Erdogan recently introduced tank units to Idlib and said that he would not allow operations against the rebels there, Russia also retreated! Well, thank God that in Moscow they do not want to fight with strong opponents, ”emphasizes Mikhail Magid.