Ruble, oil and surplus budget

The budget for 2019 will be childless at an oil price of 50 or even less than dollars per barrel, the media write. This is the first budget of such a variety in 12 years, the project of which is formed taking into account such a low oil price.

The assessment of the 2019 budget was made on the basis of the calculations of the analytical credit rating agency (AKRA) conducted for the RBC information agency based on past data and the draft budget for 2019-2021. The calculations for 2018-2021 were prepared taking into account the forecast of the government at the ruble exchange rate, which was used to create a draft three-year budget.

The draft budget duma.gov.ru

As for oil prices, they did not fall below the barrel below the barrel for a long time, and in 2009-2014 they exceeded the indicator of $ 100 per barrel.

According to the expert of the research and forecasting group of AKRA Dmitry Kulikov, an increase in the VAT rate with a level of 20% and improving the collection of part of the non -Neneftegas taxes budget positively affects the balancing figure.

“The price of oil, a balancing budget, is low in the budget under consideration, because at the moment it is possible to observe the spirit of the accepted budget rule. Roughly speaking, it is configured so that the main expenses are covered with a stable (structural) part of income (at prices less than $ 40 per barrel). Large expenses to plan the rule forbids, ”said Kulikov.

About whether Russia was able to untie its national currency from oil prices, and about whether there is reason to expect that real oil prices will be noticeably higher than those that are laid down in the budget, and therefore Russia's income will be higher, Dmitry Lutyan, an independent expert on the oil and gas sector of the TEK.

“The proposal for the budget is flashed at the level of $ 50 per barrel. Now we see that the price of oil is at the level of $ 80 per barrel. And if you look at the situation from the point of view of prices that were this year, then in the region of $ 50 per barrel oil had not cost a long time ago. It costs from 65 to 75 dollars.

This range is from 65 to 75 - in principle, quite stable. Other equal, without any sanctions against Iran and other complications in the economies of oil producing countries, oil will cost in the region of $ 65 per barrel. So far, taking into account the aggravation of geopolitical situations, we see prices higher: Brend oil is estimated above $ 80 per barrel.

Accordingly, next year, most likely, taking into account the fact that the sanctions stories are quite long, I do not expect that the price of oil will be below $ 75 per barrel. Most likely, it will fluctuate in the range from 75 to 95 dollars per barrel - I see such a horizon for 2019 by oil - taking into account the risks that we now see on Iran, Venezuela, and the Middle East.

Gazprom-neft.ru hydrocarbon production

In this case, the budget, of course, will be surplus, and the excess funds in some proportion will be replenished with the National Welfare Fund (I think, from 30% to 50% of the surpluses can be directed there), and the rest can be launched for the implementation of the President’s May decrees in terms of the development of infrastructure, cities and main highways of federal significance.

And if we talk about whether the ruble is untied from oil, it should be noted that no, is not untied. The ruble still reacts quite rapidly to changing oil prices, just recently it has also reacted rapidly to sanctions stories in connection with Russia. This influence is divided approximately in half, 50 to 50, that is, if oil grows, it strengthens the ruble. But at the same time, sanctions pressure against the Russian Federation from the United States and the European Union is growing, and the ruble against this background should weaken.

In fact, it does not grow, although it should have been against the background of oil prices. Therefore, one gets the impression that it is not very many correlations with the price of oil now. However, if oil is exceeded with a level of $ 80 per barrel, it is clear that it is, ”explained Dmitry Lutyan.

Earlier, the media have already noted that the Russian budget for the next three years is not only surplus, but also looks very optimistic. It proceeds from the forecast for the preservation of macroeconomic stability. The Ministry of Economy also predicted the stability of the ruble rate at the level of 64 rubles per dollar in the next three years and a rate of the course of up to 67 rubles per dollar by 2025.