Earth and will

Shamil Basayev had a dream: the Islamic Caliphate from the Caspian Sea to Black. This goal was pursued by many actions of the famous action movie, including terrorist attacks and the invasion of Dagestan. However, he failed to realize the dream, and he could not. The large-scale plans of the Prime Minister Ichkeria opposed both in Russia and the Caucasus, and even in his native Chechnya he did not have many like-minded people.

Ramzan Kadyrov also has a dream. The unification of the lands of the Caucasian under the flag of the struggle with the "shaitans", where he writes all his enemies, regardless of religion. This goal is pursued by many shares of the famous head of the Chechen administration, more and more power. There are different opinions about whether he will be able to realize a dream. It is clear, however, that in comparison with the predecessor, the current unit has a number of advantages.

Unlike Basayev, Kadyrov enjoys the support of the Kremlin. For him, according to the results of the elections, almost all the inhabitants of Chechnya - and why not believe them. Under his leadership, the former deaf province of the Empire gained real independence, and not the one that could be vented to the Ichkeria leaders after the Khasavyurt. The sovereignty based on the fraternal friendship of the local leader with the Moscow king and the hard, scrupulous, strict non -compliance of Russian laws in the territory of this subject of the Federation with his external loyalty. The fee for loyalty, calculated by billions with which the Russian Federation encourages its ally in the Caucasus, just arouses the most violent fantasies in it.

If his will, he would have put things in order for a long time in depressed neighboring republics - following the example of Chechnya. Moreover, according to the samples of Imperial, mastering, say, the useful experience of territorial division in the Soviet Union, where there was no Chechen Republic, but there was a Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic with the capital in Grozny. True, this experiment for the Chechens and the Ingush in previous years was accompanied by a tragedy of mass deportation, but Ramzan Akhmatovich does not delve into such details and the day of February 23 does not celebrate in his state and does not advise compatriots. In the end, he does not look at the neighboring lands in order for the Moscow king to take them to his hands and get scores with the Caucasians. And in order to personally take them to their hands and get scores. What the Ingush, who are watching with genuine interest in what is happening in Chechnya, also know the Cadyrov’s dreams in terrible dreams.

Such a mismatch of dreams inevitably leads to conflicts. Or something, the properties, as in the summer of 2009, when the head of Ingushetia Yunus-Bek Evkurov was blown up in his car in Nazran and the head of Chechnya hurried to Magas. Expressing the willingness to steer the republic, since the local authorities are not able to cope with the gangstone underground. Or the properties of the counter-terrorism, five years later, when Ramzan Akhmatovich started a discussion with a neighbor about how to bury the “bandits” correctly and whether Yunus-Bek Bamatgireevich should attend their funerals. Well, the territorial property. These disputes about the borders between the two republics were constantly conducted, then flashing, then fading, and it was clear that the very problem of demarcation was not too worried about the Grozny dreamer.

For him, the collector of the Caucasian lands, it was much more important to break the opponent, forcing him to play by his own rules. Then he went to the principle, but in general the borders always remained transparent, and if the Kadyrovites received an order somewhere near the Sunzhi to set fire to a bus with human rights activists, having beaten passengers, then no demarcation lines and checkpoints served them. However, for the time being, the laconic paratrooper managed to somehow restrain the dreamy impulses of the restless neighbor and the border verbal battles of the Hero of Russia Kadyrov and the hero of Russia Evkurov ended in a draw.

Apparently, the heroes were forced in the Kremlin, where Putin’s faithful infantryman was asked to behave more modestly and not to intervene in the Ingush internal affairs, as Moscow did not interfere in Chechen. The interlocutor listened to these arguments, but did not agree with them in his soul, for he did not want to destroy the dream, and perseverance, as everyone knows, is one of the main features of his character. Closer to the fall of this year, he managed to break the resistance of the Kremlin curators and, probably, to convince Vladimir Vladimirovich directly, after which Yevkurov also surrendered. On September 26, along with the dear guest from Grozny, he signed an agreement on new borders between the regions. On the same day, a spontaneous rally arose in the center of the Ingush capital, during which citizens protested against a voluntarist decision of the leadership and called their signator a traitor. In response, Kadyrov threatened his neighbors with a war. Protesting threats were not afraid.

The situation is very serious. For Yevkurov, who rushes between Moscow, formidable and his compatriots. For the Ingush - the people of the small and doomed in a direct battle with Kadyrov, not to mention Russia. It is also possible that the head of the Chechen administration plays a two -way, the first move in which was the contract and its easily calculated consequences, and the second - the invasion of Ingushetia. With the subsequent attempt of its absorption, as part of the restoration of the indestructible Chechen-Ingush Union.

Another question is, how much such a scenario arranges Putin, who, in other cases, seems to be angry with Ramzan and even, according to rumors, strictly punishes him, refusing to accept. As far as he, immersed in total showdowns with our Western partners, today for complete happiness is not enough for the new Caucasian massacre. To which the local imperial dreams of Ramzan Kadyrov are close to him. He is able to evaluate them in a kind or rather a sense of irritation, leaning to the idea that the infantryman, which claims to be foreign land, involuntarily parodies the commander in chief and becomes tiring.

The first scenario is good for the president in that Russians can distract from other hardships. Although it may not be distracted, because the fellow citizens are stubborn people, and if they think deeply about the pension, suppose, reform, then they will not notice the war. That is why another development of events seems more realistic. Evkurov will not remove his signature under the contract, but no one in Ingushetia will consider it legitimate, and everyone will remain with his own. Kadyrov will record an agreement on his asset, the Ingush does not recognize him, and the militants of Ramzan, making the usual raids to the neighbors, hardly come across resistance. The fact that the point of view of the Ingush people will prevail, Yevkurov will leave, and Kadyrov will reconcile with defeat, we can only dream.