Nuclear urine

Reflections on whether Russian wars want

Not so long ago, President Putin puzzled the foreigners present at the Valdai meeting with a statement that the Russians in the event of a nuclear war as martyrs “go to heaven”, and their opponents “simply die”. The reasons for this statement are quite easy to understand. The Russian army and Russian intelligence became the subject of ridicule in the West. Petrov and Boshirov, on the one hand, is a Russian missile that confuses the Russian plane, and the General Staff, which reports that Jews are to blame for everything, on the other. Instead of horror, Russia began to cause irony, and Putin could not help but feel it. I had to remind the West of the presence of nuclear weapons.

Of course, in the West they can suspect that the professionalism of the people who serve this weapon is about the same as that of the GRU personnel officer who filed all saboteurs to the passport office of all saboteurs: but who will decide to check? The bets are too high.

So, what is the probability that Russia will really use nuclear weapons? Is it worth the whole environment of Putin to gather in paradise or is it possible to stay in their palaces and Mercedes for now?

In my opinion, the probability of this is exactly the same as the probability of Russia's entry into a regular conventional war with the West - that is, it is zero.

Our Kremlin is not a war specialist.

The Kremlin is our hybrid war specialist, which is far from the same.

The word "hybrid war" became political inhabitant precisely under Vladimir Putin, and in the West it is customary to consider the "hybrid war" as something new and unprecedented, in which the Russian authorities are especially strong. In fact, hybrid wars happened earlier, and such a war differs from the usual, first of all, that it cannot be won.

What is a win in a regular war is well known. In antiquity, these were copper oxen, captives and slaves, looted gold. In the XX century, these were territories.

And what is a win in a hybrid war? Zero. Zilch. NADA. In all the hybrid wars that Russia waged, she won nothing.

Yes, as a result of the Russian-Georgian war, Saakashvili eventually lost power. This is true. But what did Russia get as a result? Zero.

We turned the DPR and LPR into a bloody Ukrainian Hamas: but what did Russia acquire in exchange for this hybrid war? Also zero.

We tried to intervene in the American elections, and this intervention is still used by democrats to delegitimize President Trump. Donald Trump lost a lot, but what did Russia get? Only sanctions.

The only result of a hybrid war is that the one against whom you are leading it becomes worse. Your situation does not improve in any way. Exactly the opposite-sanctions are imposed against you, and you turn into a rogue country. This means: killing your cow so that the neighbor is dead by the goat.

Why will the Kremlin never decide to turn a hybrid war into a real one?

For a very simple reason. The fact is that in the real war, victory and defeat are real. They do not occur on the TV screen. Propaganda in this war acts only to a certain threshold. When the Aviation of the Allies irons Berlin, Goebbels is difficult to tell how the Wehrmacht wins everyone.

In this sense, I have a favorite war: this is the first opium war that the British waged against China. It was a unique war, which the Chinese commanders considered as a hybrid and tried to win exclusively by lies.

The forces in this war were incomparable: the British had less than 20 thousand troops, including sailors and marine infantry. The Chinese of the troops had more than 200 thousand.

Therefore, the war was divided into three stages.

During the first stage, Chinese (more precisely, Manchu) military leaders simply lied to the emperor about victories. Every day they sent him reports, which described how another ten thousand and more thirty thousand English were destroyed, and he wrote in the reports with red ink “excellent, just excellent”. In the troops, competitions were held for the best poem about victory, etc.

Since there were no reasons for the poems in reality, the second stage soon began. Namely, the commanders realized that the “fifth column” in the person of their own Chinese population interfere with the British. (Let me remind you that the Manchu ruled China at that time, and the “fifth column” was as a result of all the Chinese.) As a result of this discovery, it was now possible to fight against the British, but to rob, cut and rape their own population, which was what the Manchu army began. Oddly enough, this did not help against the British.

Then the third stage came. The new military leader, appointed by the commander of the troops in February 1841 - his name was Yang Fan, looked into the root of the problem and thought about the question: why did British guns always fall on the target, and Chinese - no?

Jan Fan penetratively suggested that this is happening with the help of witchcraft, and the Chinese had a reliable remedy for a long time against sorcerers, namely female urine. As soon as a pot of female urine was poured onto the sorcerer, he immediately lost all his abilities.

The pots were placed on rafts, and the rafts began a grandiose counterattack on the British fort a few miles from the canton. Seeing pots and rafts, the British gave a volley ... and ... and ... in short - the accuracy of the English guns was not affected.

Everything ended in the Nanjing Peace Treaty and the loss of Hong Kong.

A hybrid war is a war of urine, and urine does not help to win real battles, even if it is Dmitry Kiselev’s urine.

It is good only in a television war when you can show a video of missiles falling on Florida, and inspire the audience with the idea that we won an amazing victory.

The main thing at the same time is not to start a real war, because what will be this war, we see according to the spire of the "Salisberet" cathedral and on the history of the Russian aircraft shot down by the Russian rocket.

Vladimir Putin very well learned historical lessons. He knows where the expression “little victorious war” came from and how this war ended. He knows that the lost wars end in revolutions and the change of regime, and he will never go to it.

In each conflict, which Russia got involved - whether it was the annexation of Crimea or Donbass - the Kremlin first of all probed whether it was possible to crank the businessman without a real war, and only then went forward. Each time a ghost of a real war or real combat clashes loomed before Russia-as, for example, near Deir-Az-Zoro in February 2018, when the Americans destroyed about 200 Wagner mercenaries, or a few months later, when President Trump struck Assad after the latter chemical weapons, Russia immediately receded or even pretended to be Deyr-Azor, that there was no fight at all.

It is very difficult to imagine that the country, which "did not notice" Deir-Az-Zor, will be resolved in the conflict using nuclear weapons.

Only a hybrid war can be won endlessly. A real war can be lost, and very quickly, and the consequence of this loss, with a high probability, will be a change in power. And this means that the Kremlin will always continue to fight exclusively by pots of urine.